# Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Sector: Banking | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | CA$175.53 | | Market cap | CA$297B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2026-12-03 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for TD's fast recovery in returns after its money laundering failures in the United States, and only returns that hold when markets slow and the remediation there ends can earn it. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Interest rates (interest-rates), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: The Q4 fiscal 2026 report expected on December 3, 2026 is the next test, but the premium needs high returns and a finished U.S. remediation over several years. ## About The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is the sixth largest bank in North America by assets, and it serves 28.2 million clients. It has four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, U.S. Banking, Wealth Management and Insurance, and Wholesale Banking. Wholesale Banking includes TD Securities and TD Cowen. Total assets were $2.11 trillion and deposits were $1.26 trillion at July 31, 2026. In October 2024, TD pleaded guilty in the United States to failures in its anti-money laundering program. Under that resolution, the average combined assets of its two U.S. bank subsidiaries cannot exceed US$434 billion. TD sold its remaining stake in Charles Schwab in February 2025 but still holds Schwab client deposits under an agreement to 2034. All amounts are in Canadian dollars unless the text says otherwise. The fiscal year ends on October 31. ## Thesis TD trades at a premium because investors pay for a fast recovery in its returns after the U.S. anti-money laundering failures of 2024. Adjusted return on equity was 16.0% in Q3 fiscal 2026, and the bank already passed its fiscal 2026 target of about 13%. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 26% to $2.77. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, Wealth Management and Wholesale Banking all had record earnings. TD bought back $7 billion of shares by September 25, 2026 and started a new buyback of up to $10 billion in October 2026. The price assumes that returns stay near the fiscal 2029 target of about 16% adjusted return on equity and that the U.S. remediation stays on plan. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Wholesale Banking and Wealth Management must keep most of their gains when markets are less active, because they gave a large part of the profit growth. U.S. Banking must raise its return on equity from 10.2% in Q3 fiscal 2026 while its assets stay under the U.S. limit. Credit losses must stay near 0.37% of loans, even with weaker consumer credit in Canada and trade tension with the United States. The Q4 fiscal 2026 report, expected in early December 2026, gives the first test with the targets for fiscal 2027. The U.S. lookback review of suspicious activity reports, which TD expects to complete in calendar 2027, is a second test. If returns fall back toward 13% when markets slow, the premium can shrink within one to two years. ## Checkpoints - Dec 3, 2026 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 targets. Status: Pending. Watch: Adjusted return on equity near 15% or more, stable credit losses and fiscal 2027 targets on the path to about 16% pass; lower returns or a large rise in provisions fail. - 2027 (estimate): U.S. lookback review and remediation milestones. Status: Pending. Watch: Completion of the U.S. lookback review of suspicious activity reports in calendar 2027 with no new penalties passes; new findings, higher costs or a delay fail. ## Balance sheet TD funds itself mainly with deposits, which were $1.26 trillion at July 31, 2026, and total assets were $2.11 trillion. The CET1 ratio was 14.3%, the leverage ratio was 4.5% and the total loss absorbing capacity ratio was 31.1%. Total equity was $127.0 billion, and book value was $69.69 per share on 1,638.4 million shares. Term funding was $188.4 billion. The provision for credit losses was $917 million in Q3 fiscal 2026, or 0.37% of net average loans. Over the 12 months to July 31, 2026, reported earnings before interest and taxes covered the interest and dividend requirements on subordinated debt and preferred equity 17.2 times. TD paid a quarterly dividend of $1.12 per share in Q3 fiscal 2026. It completed a $7 billion buyback on September 25, 2026 and started a new program of up to $10 billion on October 9, 2026. For a bank, net debt is not a useful measure, so this profile does not show debt figures. As of 2026-07-31. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276226000098/ex994.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276226000098/ex991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276226000098/ex992.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000127956926000934/ex991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000127956926000964/ex991.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 2.5% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: CA$4.40 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: CA$4.48 (CA$1.12 x 4 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-10-09, CA$1.12 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 6.8% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 7.4% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: CA$2.16, 2017: CA$2.35, 2018: CA$2.61, 2019: CA$2.89, 2020: CA$3.11, 2021: CA$3.16, 2022: CA$3.56, 2023: CA$3.84, 2024: CA$4.08, 2025: CA$4.20. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09. ## Recent events - 2026-10-08: The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions approved TD's new share buyback of up to $10 billion, and not more than 61 million shares. The buyback started on October 9, 2026, and TD intends to complete it by July 2027. - 2026-09-30: TD said that it completed the buyback of $7 billion of its shares, or 47.2 million shares, on September 25, 2026. It announced its intention to start a new buyback of up to $10 billion. - 2026-09-03: TD announced senior leadership appointments. Renu Gupta became Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer, and Vlad Shpilsky became Group Head, Global Technology and Solutions. - 2026-08-27: TD reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Reported net income was $4.6 billion and reported diluted EPS was $2.74, up from $1.89. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 26% to $2.77, and adjusted return on equity was 16.0%. U.S. Banking net income was $1.07 billion, with a return on equity of 10.2%. The CET1 ratio was 14.3%. TD now expects U.S. anti-money laundering remediation costs of about US$550 million before tax in fiscal 2026, up from US$500 million. - 2026-05-28: TD reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results. Reported diluted EPS was $2.43, adjusted diluted EPS was $2.38 and adjusted return on equity was 14.4%. - 2025-12-04: TD reported fiscal 2025 results. Reported diluted EPS was $11.56, which included the gain on the sale of its Schwab stake, and adjusted diluted EPS was $8.37. It set fiscal 2026 targets of about 13% adjusted return on equity and 6% to 8% adjusted EPS growth, and fiscal 2029 targets of about 16% adjusted return on equity and 7% to 10% adjusted EPS growth. ## Latest news and filings - Next earnings: 2026-12-03 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-08-27 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jul 31, 2026 | 2026-07-31 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276226000098/6k20260731.htm | | 2026-05-28 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Apr 30, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000094726326000055/6k20260430.htm | | 2026-02-26 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jan 31, 2026 | 2026-01-31 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000094726326000019/6k20260131.htm | | 2025-12-04 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Oct 31, 2025 | 2025-10-31 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276225000289/40f20251031.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 947263): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000947263&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: TD must complete the remediation of its U.S. anti-money laundering program under consent orders, plea agreements and monitors. Important milestones remain in 2026 and 2027, and new findings can add costs, delays or penalties. The U.S. asset limit stays until regulators lift it. A review of the enterprise program in Canada can also lead to more regulatory actions. - Medium: Credit losses can rise. Impaired provisions in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking rose 19% in Q3 fiscal 2026 because of weaker consumer credit, and trade tension with the United States can hurt business clients. - Medium: A large part of the profit growth came from markets. Wholesale Banking net income rose 87% in Q3 fiscal 2026. If markets slow, this profit can fall quickly. - Medium: The U.S. asset limit restricts growth in U.S. Banking. Average U.S. deposits fell 5% in Q3 fiscal 2026 as TD restructured its U.S. balance sheet. - Low: Schwab client deposits with TD have a floor of US$60 billion under the agreement. Lower deposit volumes or lower rates can reduce the income from these deposits. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TD/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TD/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TD.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.