# Atlassian (TEAM)

Sector: Collaboration software

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $152.44 |
| Market cap | $38B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-04 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market fears that AI agents will cut the paid seats of Atlassian, and steady cloud growth with a rising margin as agents join its platform can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI disruption risk (ai-disruption)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q2 fiscal 2027 report in February 2027 shows whether cloud growth and margin keep pace with the targets for fiscal 2027.

## About

Atlassian Corporation (Atlassian) makes software that helps teams plan, build and run work. Its products include Jira for work tracking, Confluence for shared documents, Loom for video, Jira Service Management, Bitbucket and Rovo, its AI assistant. The Teamwork Graph links data from these tools and gives AI agents the context of the work. The Form 10-K for the year to June 30, 2026 says that its software serves more than 350,000 customers, including over 85% of the Fortune 500. In Q1 fiscal 2027, revenue was $1,772 million, up 24%, cloud revenue was $1,302 million, up 31%, and Subscription ARR was $6,812 million, up 23%. Mike Cannon-Brookes is Chief Executive Officer and co-founder, and James Chuong is Chief Financial Officer. The Class A shares trade on the Nasdaq in US dollars. The fiscal year ends on June 30.

## Thesis

The market prices Atlassian on a fear that AI agents will do work that people now do in its tools, which would cut the number of paid seats. The company answers that its Teamwork Graph and its platform for people and agents make its software more useful. Demand is strong: cloud revenue grew 31% in Q1 fiscal 2027, and remaining performance obligations grew 44% to $4,746 million. But the target for fiscal 2027 is slower, with total revenue growth of about 13.75% and a fall of about 16% in Data Center revenue, and stock-based compensation was $1,606.6 million in fiscal 2026, so GAAP operating income was only $10.4 million. For the price to rise, three things must be true. Cloud growth must stay near the target of 26% as Data Center customers move to the cloud. Paid seats must keep growing as agents join teams. GAAP operating margin must rise from the target of about 5.0% for fiscal 2027. The next tests are the Q2 fiscal 2027 report in early February 2027, for which the company expects revenue of $1,825 million to $1,835 million, and the fiscal 2027 report in August 2027.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results: cloud growth. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue inside the target of $1,825 million to $1,835 million, with cloud growth near 27%, passes; a miss fails.
- Aug 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results: margin. Status: Pending. Watch: GAAP operating margin near the target of about 5.0% and free cash flow above the $1,319.1 million of fiscal 2026 pass; a lower margin and lower cash flow fail.

## Balance sheet

Atlassian had cash and cash equivalents of $1,120.5 million and long-term debt of $990.0 million at September 30, 2026, so net cash was $130.5 million. Strategic investments were $192.7 million. Deferred revenue was $2,393.6 million, including $152.8 million that is not current. Stockholders' equity was $910.7 million, after an accumulated deficit of $6,598.4 million. Free cash flow was $462.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2027 and $1,319.1 million in fiscal 2026. A program to buy back up to $2.5 billion of shares started in March 2026.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000049/ex991q1fy27.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000054/team-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000031/ex991q4fy26.htm

## Dividends

Atlassian does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: Atlassian reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $1,772 million, up 24%, GAAP operating income was $189 million, a margin of 11%, and non-GAAP operating margin was 32%. Free cash flow was $463 million. Subscription ARR was $6,812 million, up 23%. The company gave targets for Q2 revenue of $1,825 million to $1,835 million and for fiscal 2027 revenue growth of about 13.75%.
- 2026-11-05: In its Q1 release, Atlassian listed new work with AI agents. At Team'26 Europe it showed the Agentic Multiplayer Protocol and a rebuilt MCP server, and it expanded its partnership with OpenAI. It also signed a OneGov agreement with the US General Services Administration. In an 8-K, it said that Chief Accounting Officer Gene Liu will step down on November 13, 2026 and that Eli Berkovitch will take the role on November 16, 2026.
- 2026-08-06: Atlassian reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue was $6,572.3 million, up 26%, and Q4 revenue was $1,766 million, up 28%. The net loss was $53.8 million, and free cash flow was $1,319.1 million. Stock-based compensation was $1,606.6 million.
- 2026-03-11: Atlassian announced a restructuring that cut roles for about 10% of its workforce. It expected charges of $225 million to $236 million, mostly in Q3 fiscal 2026, to move money to AI and enterprise sales.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000049/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-04 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | team-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000054/team-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Earnings release and Change of directors or officers |  | team-20261105 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000049/ |
| 2026-08-14 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | team-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000036/team-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news |  | team-20260806 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000031/ |
| 2026-05-01 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | team-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000027/team-20260331.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | team-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000024/ |
| 2026-03-11 | 8-K | Exit or restructuring costs and Change of directors or officers |  | team-20260311 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000021/team-20260311.htm |
| 2026-02-18 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | team-20260218 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000017/team-20260218.htm |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | team-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000011/team-20251231.htm |
| 2026-02-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | team-20260205 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650372/000165037226000008/ |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1650372): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001650372&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: AI agents can replace human work in Jira and Confluence. If customers use agents in place of staff, they may buy fewer paid seats, and competitors that build agents can take work from Atlassian.
- High: Stock-based compensation is large. It was $1,606.6 million in fiscal 2026, 24% of revenue, and $356.5 million in Q1 fiscal 2027. GAAP operating income was only $10.4 million in fiscal 2026. Buybacks and new shares to staff move the share count.
- Medium: Data Center revenue falls. The company expects a fall of about 16% in fiscal 2027 as customers move to the cloud. If customers leave and do not move, revenue is lost.
- Medium: Growth is slower in the plan. The target for fiscal 2027 revenue growth of about 13.75% compares with 26% in fiscal 2026. A miss would hit a price that depends on growth.
- Low: The company changes its Chief Accounting Officer in November 2026 after a restructuring in March 2026. Changes in finance staff can raise the risk of reporting errors.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TEAM/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TEAM/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TEAM.json

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