# TJX Companies (TJX) Sector: Off-price retail | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $138.13 | | Market cap | $152B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2026-11-18 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short The market doubts that TJX can keep its profit growth after one-time tariff refunds, and a recovery at Marmaxx with higher margins and faster store growth can close the gap within about a year. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q3 fiscal 2027 report expected in mid-November 2026 and the fiscal 2028 plan expected in late February 2027 are dated checks within about a year. ## About TJX is the largest off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in the United States and in the world. It sells brand-name goods at prices below those of department and specialty stores. It has four segments: Marmaxx (TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Sierra in the U.S.), HomeGoods (HomeGoods and Homesense in the U.S.), TJX Canada (Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls) and TJX International (TK Maxx and Homesense in Europe and TK Maxx in Australia). It had 5,285 stores at August 1, 2026. Net sales were $60.4 billion in fiscal 2026, which ended on January 31, 2026. Its buyers get goods from about 21,000 vendors. ## Thesis The market doubts that TJX can keep its recent growth in profit. Part of the fiscal 2027 profit comes from one-time refunds of tariffs. In Q2 fiscal 2027, refunds of $331 million less related bonus costs added $0.14 to diluted EPS. Comparable sales at Marmaxx, the largest division, grew only 1%, below the plan, while the other divisions grew 6% to 7%. Store wage and payroll costs also rise. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Marmaxx comparable sales must recover, as management said they started to do early in Q3. The adjusted pretax margin must keep rising without help from tariff refunds, from the fiscal 2027 guidance of 12.0% to 12.1%. Store growth must speed up to 4% a year from fiscal 2028, on the way to a target of 7,500 stores. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected in mid-November 2026, gives the next test with the holiday quarter guidance. The full-year report, expected in late February 2027, gives the fiscal 2028 plan. If these checks pass, the gap can close within about a year. ## Checkpoints - Nov 18, 2026 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: Marmaxx and holiday outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: Comparable sales at the top of the 2% to 3% guidance with better Marmaxx sales and a kept full-year outlook pass; weak Marmaxx sales or a lower outlook fail. - Feb 24, 2027 (estimate): Full-year fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 plan. Status: Pending. Watch: A fiscal 2028 plan with a higher adjusted pretax margin and 4% store growth passes; a lower margin without tariff refunds fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $6.0B - Debt: $2.9B - Net cash: $3.1B - Undrawn credit line: $1.5B, to May 2030 - Debt due within 12 months: $1.0B - Last debt due: 2050 TJX has more cash than debt. At August 1, 2026, cash was $6.0 billion, and debt was $2.879 billion of senior unsecured notes. The largest note, $1.0 billion of 2.250% notes, was due on September 15, 2026, and TJX said that it would repay it with operating cash flow. The other notes are due in 2028, 2030, 2031 and 2050. TJX also had operating lease liabilities of $11.4 billion for its stores, which are not in the debt figure. It has two $750 million revolving credit facilities, due in May 2029 and May 2030, with no borrowings, and it had no commercial paper. In the first half of fiscal 2027, operating cash flow was $3.3 billion and capital spending was $1.2 billion. TJX expects capital spending of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion for fiscal 2027 and buybacks of $2.75 billion to $3.0 billion. As of 2026-08-01. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 1.3% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.81 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.92 ($0.48 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 34% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2026-01-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-13, $0.48 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 11.7% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 13.8% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.495, 2017: $0.5995, 2018: $0.7415, 2019: $0.885, 2020: $0.23, 2021: $1.04, 2022: $1.145, 2023: $1.294, 2024: $1.458, 2025: $1.65. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09. ## Recent events - 2026-10-15: TJX said that Kenneth Canestrari, Senior Executive Vice President and Group President, plans to retire on April 30, 2027. He stops serving as an executive officer on January 31, 2027. - 2026-08-19: TJX reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Net sales grew 5% to $15.2 billion, and comparable sales grew 4%, above plan. Diluted EPS was $1.36, or $1.22 without a net benefit from tariff refunds, up 11%. Marmaxx comparable sales grew only 1%, while HomeGoods, TJX Canada and TJX International grew 6% to 7%. TJX raised its fiscal 2027 diluted EPS guidance to $5.31 to $5.36, or $5.15 to $5.20 without tariff refunds. - 2026-08-19: TJX said that it plans to increase its store growth to 4% a year from fiscal 2028. It raised its long-term target to 7,500 stores in its current banners and countries. - 2026-05-20: TJX reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Net sales grew 9% to $14.3 billion, comparable sales grew 6% and diluted EPS rose 29% to $1.19. It raised its fiscal 2027 guidance and its planned buybacks to $2.75 billion to $3.0 billion. - 2026-02-25: TJX reported Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 results. Q4 comparable sales grew 5%, and full-year net sales grew 7% to $60.4 billion. It planned to raise the quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.48 per share. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-08-19 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/) - Next earnings: 2026-11-18 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-20 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | tjx-20261015 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000054/tjx-20261015.htm | | 2026-09-17 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | tjx-20260916 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000051/tjx-20260916.htm | | 2026-08-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | tjx-20260801 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm | | 2026-08-19 | 8-K | Earnings release | | tjx-20260819 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjx-20260819.htm | | 2026-06-11 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | tjx-20260609 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000041/tjx-20260609.htm | | 2026-05-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended May 2, 2026 | 2026-05-02 | tjx-20260502 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000034/tjx-20260502.htm | | 2026-05-20 | 8-K | Earnings release | | tjx-20260520 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000023/tjx-20260520.htm | | 2026-03-31 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jan 31, 2026 | 2026-01-31 | tjx-20260131 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm | | 2026-02-25 | 8-K | Earnings release | | tjx-20260225 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000004/tjx-20260225.htm | | 2025-12-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Nov 1, 2025 | 2025-11-01 | tjx-20251101 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919825000061/tjx-20251101.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 109198): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000109198&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Tariff refunds raise profit in fiscal 2027, but the amount and timing of more refunds are uncertain. Without them, profit growth is slower. New tariffs can also raise the cost of goods. - Medium: Marmaxx, about 60% of sales, grew comparable sales only 1% in Q2 fiscal 2027. A weaker U.S. consumer or more competition can keep growth slow in the largest division. - Medium: Store wages and payroll costs rise. SG&A costs were 19.7% of sales in Q2 fiscal 2027 without the tariff-related bonus costs, up 0.2 percentage points. - Low: TJX Canada and TJX International earn in other currencies. A stronger dollar lowers reported sales and profit. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TJX/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TJX/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TJX.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. 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