# Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Sector: Life science tools and services | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $721.63 | | Market cap | $267B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-02 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for Thermo Fisher's scale and steady growth, and only faster organic growth with lower debt after the Clario purchase can earn it over several years. ## Themes and gap - Themes: High debt (leverage), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), New management (management-change) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: The Q4 2026 report expected on February 2, 2027 is the next test, but the premium needs several years of faster organic growth and lower debt after Clario. ## About Thermo Fisher Scientific sells instruments, consumables, software and services to pharmaceutical and biotech companies, hospitals and clinical labs, universities, governments and industrial customers. It has four segments: Life Sciences Solutions, Analytical Instruments, Specialty Diagnostics, and Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services. Its brands include Thermo Scientific, Applied Biosystems, Invitrogen, Gibco, Fisher Scientific, Patheon and PPD. Fisher Scientific distributes lab products, Patheon makes medicines for other companies, and PPD runs clinical trials. Thermo Fisher bought Clario, a clinical trial data company, on March 24, 2026, and sold its microbiology business on August 12, 2026. Revenue was $44.6 billion in 2025 and $12.14 billion in Q3 2026. ## Thesis Thermo Fisher trades at a premium because investors pay for its scale, its steady growth and its record of profitable purchases. It calls itself the world leader in serving science, and customers buy many of its consumables and services again each year. In Q3 2026, revenue grew 9%, organic revenue grew 6% and adjusted EPS grew 15% to $6.68. The adjusted operating margin rose to 24.5% from 23.3%. Investors expect growth to speed up as drug companies spend more and as Clario adds clinical trial software. The price assumes that organic growth returns to the high single digits and that adjusted EPS grows about 10% or more each year for many years. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Pharma and biotech demand must stay strong, because press reports of the October 21, 2026 call say that academic and government revenue was flat. Clario must grow and add to earnings, while net debt falls from 2.9 times adjusted EBITDA at September 26, 2026. Margins must keep rising after 2026, because press reports of the same call say that tariff refunds helped margins in 2026. The Q4 2026 report, which the company expects on February 2, 2027, gives the 2027 guidance and the first test. If organic growth stays near 5% or less in 2027, the premium can shrink within one to two years. ## Checkpoints - Feb 2, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with organic growth of 6% or more and adjusted EPS growth near 10% passes; organic growth near 5% or less or lower margins fail. - 2027 (estimate): Clario growth and lower debt. Status: Pending. Watch: Clario growth that adds to earnings and net debt below about 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2027 pass; weak Clario growth or debt that stays near 3 times fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $6.1B - Debt: $41.4B - Net debt: $35.3B - EBITDA, last 12 months: $12.2B - Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9× (medium) - Interest cover: 5.3× - Undrawn credit line: $5.0B, to January 2028 - Debt due within 12 months: $2.3B - Last debt due: 2056 Thermo Fisher has moderate debt after the Clario purchase. At September 26, 2026, total debt was $41.37 billion, of which $2.26 billion was short-term debt and current maturities, and cash and short-term investments were $6.06 billion, so net debt was $35.31 billion. Notes are due through 2056. The $5.0 billion revolving credit facility, which ends on January 7, 2028, had no borrowings and supports the commercial paper programs. Its covenant needs EBITDA of at least 3.5 times net interest expense. Operating income was $6.21 billion and interest expense was $1.17 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Free cash flow was $4.62 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up from $3.32 billion a year earlier. Thermo Fisher bought back $4.0 billion of shares in the first half of 2026, and $1.0 billion of the authorization was left. It pays a quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share. As of 2026-09-26. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000179/tmo-20260926.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000173/q32026earnings8kex99_1.htm - https://s27.q4cdn.com/797047529/files/content_files/Q3-2026-Reconciliation-of-Financial-Information.pdf ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.3% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.84 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.88 ($0.47 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 10% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-15, $0.47 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 13.0% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 11.9% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.60, 2017: $0.60, 2018: $0.68, 2019: $0.76, 2020: $0.88, 2021: $1.04, 2022: $1.20, 2023: $1.40, 2024: $1.56, 2025: $1.72. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09. ## Recent events - 2026-10-27: Thermo Fisher said that Michael D. Shafer, an Executive Vice President, will retire on December 31, 2026. - 2026-10-21: Thermo Fisher reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 9% to $12.14 billion, with 6% organic growth. GAAP diluted EPS grew 9% to $4.64, and adjusted EPS grew 15% to $6.68. The adjusted operating margin was 24.5%. Free cash flow was $2.1 billion in the quarter. The company gave its updated 2026 guidance on the conference call. - 2026-08-12: Thermo Fisher completed the sale of its microbiology business. - 2026-07-23: Thermo Fisher reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 10% to $11.99 billion, with 5% organic growth, and adjusted EPS was $6.03. - 2026-03-24: Thermo Fisher completed its purchase of Clario for $8.875 billion in cash. Clario gives software and data services for clinical trials. - 2026-01-12: Thermo Fisher said that its Chief Operating Officer, Michel Lagarde, will leave on March 31, 2026. From March 1, 2026, Gianluca Pettiti became President and Chief Operating Officer, and Marc N. Casper stayed Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-21 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000173/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-02 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-30 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | tmo-20261027 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000181/tmo-20261027.htm | | 2026-10-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026 | 2026-09-26 | tmo-20260926 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000179/tmo-20260926.htm | | 2026-10-21 | 8-K | Earnings release | | tmo-20261021 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000173/tmo-20261021.htm | | 2026-07-31 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026 | 2026-06-27 | tmo-20260627 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000144/tmo-20260627.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Earnings release | | tmo-20260723 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000138/tmo-20260723.htm | | 2026-05-26 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | tmo-20260520 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000117/tmo-20260520.htm | | 2026-05-01 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 28, 2026 | 2026-03-28 | tmo-20260328 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000092/tmo-20260328.htm | | 2026-04-23 | 8-K | Earnings release | | tmo-20260423 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000086/tmo-20260423.htm | | 2026-03-24 | 8-K | Other company news | | tmo-20260324 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000066/tmo-20260324.htm | | 2026-02-26 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | tmo-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97745/000009774526000018/tmo-20251231.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 97745): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097745&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Debt rose after the Clario purchase. Net debt was $35.3 billion at September 26, 2026, or 2.9 times adjusted EBITDA, and operating income covered interest expense only about 5.3 times in the first nine months of 2026. - Medium: Academic and government customers depend on public research budgets. Press reports of the Q3 2026 call say that revenue from these customers was flat. - Medium: Pharma and biotech customers can cut spending on research, trials and outsourced manufacturing when funding is weak or drug prices fall. - Medium: The leadership team changed in 2026. The Chief Operating Officer left in March 2026, and another Executive Vice President retires at the end of 2026. - Low: Tariffs and trade rules, including with China, can raise costs or lower sales of instruments. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TMO/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TMO/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TMO.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. 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