# TC Energy (TRP)

Sector: Natural gas pipelines and power

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | CA$88.73 |
| Market cap | CA$92B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-12 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Pricey

## In short

Investors pay a premium for the contracted gas pipelines and the long dividend record of TC Energy, and only on-time projects with stable debt and steady regulated returns can earn it.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), High debt (leverage), Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: Only several years of projects placed in service on budget, with debt below the target of 4.75 times EBITDA, can earn the premium.

## About

TC Energy owns and operates natural gas pipelines and storage in Canada, the United States and Mexico, and power plants, mainly its share of Bruce Power, a nuclear power business in Canada. The company says that it moves more than 30 per cent of the natural gas used in North America. It reports four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines, U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines, Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines, and Power and Energy Solutions. In the first nine months of 2026, comparable EBITDA was C$9,040 million: C$3,961 million from the U.S. pipelines, C$2,833 million from the Canadian pipelines, C$1,287 million from the Mexico pipelines and C$964 million from power and energy solutions. Most revenue comes from regulated rates and long-term contracts. TC Energy reports in Canadian dollars, and its shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol TRP. In October 2024, it spun off its oil pipelines as South Bow. The head office is in Calgary. François Poirier is President and Chief Executive Officer.

## Thesis

TC Energy trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for its regulated and contracted natural gas pipelines, a dividend that rose for 26 years in a row, and new demand for gas from power plants, data centres and LNG exports. In the first nine months of 2026, comparable EBITDA rose 13% to C$9,040 million, and the company raised its 2026 outlook to C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion. For the shares to earn this price, three things must be true. The company must place about C$4.5 billion to C$5.0 billion of projects in service in 2027 on time and on budget, so that comparable EBITDA reaches C$12.3 billion to C$12.5 billion. Debt-to-EBITDA must stay below the long-term target of 4.75 times while capital expenditures rise to C$6.7 billion to C$7.2 billion in 2027. Regulators in Canada, the United States and Mexico must keep the returns of the pipelines at about current levels. The Q4 2026 report, expected in mid-February 2027, is the next test. Higher interest rates or a cost overrun on a large project can make the premium hard to keep.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Status: Passed. Watch: Comparable EBITDA growth and a confirmed or higher 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails. Outcome: Comparable EBITDA rose to C$3,004 million, and the company raised its 2026 outlook to C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion.
- Feb 12, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and dividend. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 comparable EBITDA of C$11.8 billion or more and a dividend increase pass; a lower result or no increase fails.
- 2027 (estimate): Projects placed in service in 2027. Status: Pending. Watch: About C$4.5 billion to C$5.0 billion of projects in service on budget passes; large delays or cost overruns fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: CA$1.2B
- Debt: CA$63.0B
- Net debt: CA$61.8B
- Debt due within 12 months: CA$6.0B

TC Energy funds itself with bonds, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper, partners in its assets and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, long-term debt was C$47,615 million, including C$3,197 million due within a year. Notes payable were C$2,780 million and junior subordinated notes C$12,639 million. Cash was C$1,249 million. Preferred shares were C$2,255 million and non-controlling interests C$9,773 million. The company says that its debt-to-EBITDA stays below its long-term target of 4.75 times. In the first nine months of 2026, net cash provided by operations was C$6,602 million and capital spending C$3,842 million. TC Energy expects capital expenditures at the lower end of C$6.0 billion to C$6.5 billion in 2026 and C$6.7 billion to C$7.2 billion in 2027, before the share of non-controlling interests. The quarterly dividend is C$0.8775 per share. The sale of the Guadalajara-Manzanillo Pipeline is expected to bring C$560 million in the first half of 2027.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000060/trp-09302026xexx991parta.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000060/trp-09302026xfinstmts.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000047/a09-21x2026xtcenergyanno.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 3.9% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: CA$3.484 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: CA$3.512 (CA$0.878 x 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-29, CA$0.878 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: 2.2% a year
- Growth over the last 10 years: 5.6% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: CA$2.0602, 2017: CA$2.2789, 2018: CA$2.516, 2019: CA$2.7347, 2020: CA$2.9535, 2021: CA$3.1723, 2022: CA$3.2817, 2023: CA$3.3911, 2024: CA$3.4483, 2025: CA$3.40.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: TC Energy reported Q3 2026 results. Comparable EBITDA rose to C$3,004 million from C$2,654 million, and comparable earnings per share rose to C$0.94 from C$0.77. The company raised its 2026 outlook for comparable EBITDA to C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion, gave an outlook of C$12.3 billion to C$12.5 billion for 2027, and expects comparable EBITDA to grow by 5% to 7% a year to 2031. It approved about C$3 billion of new projects, including the Crossroads Expansion for power demand in the U.S. Midwest.
- 2026-09-29: LNG Canada and its partners made a final investment decision on the expansion of the LNG Canada plant. Coastal GasLink Phase 2 will now go ahead. It will add five compressor stations and increase the capacity of the pipeline from about 2.1 Bcf/d to about 4.5 Bcf/d, with an estimated cost of C$4.9 billion. Coastal GasLink LP has project financing of up to C$3.3 billion, and the share of committed equity of TC Energy is up to about C$250 million.
- 2026-09-21: TC Energy agreed to sell the Guadalajara-Manzanillo Pipeline in Mexico to affiliates of ESENTIA Energy Development for a gross price of C$560 million (US$400 million). The sale is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
- 2026-07-30: TC Energy reported Q2 2026 results. Comparable EBITDA rose to C$2.9 billion from C$2.6 billion, and comparable earnings per share rose to C$0.94 from C$0.82. The company expected 2026 comparable EBITDA at the upper end of C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion.
- 2026-02-13: TC Energy reported 2025 results. Comparable EBITDA from continuing operations rose to C$10,952 million from C$10,049 million, and comparable earnings per share were C$3.51. The board raised the quarterly dividend by 3.2% to C$0.8775 per share, the 26th year in a row of dividend increases.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-12 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-02-13 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | trp-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm |
| 2025-02-14 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | trp-20241231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238425000018/trp-20241231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1232384): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001232384&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Debt is high. At September 30, 2026, long-term debt, notes payable and junior subordinated notes were C$63,034 million, and capital expenditures will rise in 2027. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt.
- Medium: Regulators set the tolls of many pipelines, for example the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the United States and regulators in Canada. Lower allowed returns at a rate case or settlement can reduce earnings.
- Medium: Large projects such as Coastal GasLink Phase 2, the Crossroads Expansion and the Major Component Replacement work at Bruce Power can cost more or take longer than planned.
- Low: The Mexico pipelines depend on contracts with the CFE, the state power company of Mexico, and on rules of the Mexican government. Changes in the peso against the U.S. dollar also change the earnings.
- Low: Much of the earnings is in U.S. dollars. A stronger Canadian dollar lowers comparable earnings in Canadian dollars.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TRP/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TRP/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TRP.json

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