# Tenaris (TS)

Sector: Oil and gas steel pipes and tubes

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $61.21 |
| Market cap | $33B |
| Intrinsic value source | AI estimate |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-17 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market weighs the drilling cycle and higher steel costs against growing demand for pipes in North America and offshore, and a higher Q4 base for 2027 can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 shows whether sales and EBITDA set a higher base for 2027.

## About

Tenaris S.A. (Tenaris) is a Luxembourg company that makes seamless and welded steel pipes for the energy industry and other industrial uses. Its Tubes segment earned $2,927 million of the $3,102 million of net sales in Q3 2026. Tenaris shipped 976 thousand metric tons of pipes in the quarter. North America was the largest region, with $1,652 million of Tubes sales. Gabriel Podskubka is Chief Executive Officer. Tenaris reports in US dollars and files 20-F and 6-K reports. The pick is an American depositary share (ADS), and the 6-K of November 4, 2026 says that each ADS equals two ordinary shares. Tenaris had 1,009,639,756 ordinary shares outstanding at September 30, 2026, and no treasury shares.

## Thesis

The price of Tenaris depends on whether demand and prices for oil and gas pipes keep rising while Tenaris keeps its margin. In Q3 2026, net sales rose 5% from Q2 to $3,102 million, and operating income rose 21% to $598 million. EBITDA was $756 million, a margin of 24.4%. For nine months, EBITDA was $2,141 million, or 23.3% of sales, against 24.3% a year earlier, because raw material, energy and logistic costs rose. Tenaris expects higher sales and EBITDA in Q4 2026, and says that Q4 should set a new quarterly baseline for 2027 if the geopolitical context does not change significantly. Tenaris had net cash of $3.8 billion at September 30, 2026, and it pays out a large part of its cash. The interim dividend of $0.59 per share ($1.18 per ADS) is payable on November 25, 2026. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Drilling in North America and offshore must keep growing. OCTG prices must stay above the rise in steel and energy costs. The Middle East conflict must not shut shipping routes again. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 is the next test. If these hold, the gap can close over the next year. If oil and gas drilling falls or tariffs change, the gap can last longer.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 25, 2026: Interim dividend of $1.18 per ADS. Status: Pending. Watch: Tenaris pays the interim dividend on November 25, 2026, and this passes.
- Feb 17, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 baseline. Status: Pending. Watch: Q4 sales and EBITDA are higher than Q3, and Tenaris describes Q4 as a base for 2027, and this passes; a fall in EBITDA fails.

## Valuation

The intrinsic value for Tenaris is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Tenaris with the SEC. The pick is the American depositary share (ADS). The 2025 annual report on Form 20-F (filed March 31, 2026) says that each ADS represents two shares, and the 6-K of November 4, 2026 says that each ADS equals two shares, so the estimate multiplies the value of one share by 2. Tenaris reports in US dollars. The method is a multiple of operating income after tax for 2027, plus net cash and its investments in non-consolidated companies, less non-controlling interests. The Q3 2026 release (6-K, November 4, 2026) gives operating income of $598 million for Q3 and $1,675 million for nine months, net cash of $3,779.7 million at September 30, 2026 (cash, other current investments and non-current investments, less borrowings), and an expectation of higher sales and EBITDA in Q4 2026 that sets a new baseline for 2027. The interim statements (6-K, November 4, 2026) give investments in non-consolidated companies of $1,652.7 million, non-controlling interests of $268.0 million, and 1,009,639,756 shares outstanding at September 30, 2026, with no treasury shares. The estimate takes 2026 operating income as about $2,325 million, which is nine months plus $650 million for Q4, an assumption. Net income already has interest on the net cash, so the estimate uses operating income and adds the net cash. It adds the investments in non-consolidated companies at carrying value, which is an assumption. The 2027 operating income, the tax rate of 22% and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes operating income of $2,200 million, because drilling slows and prices fall, at 10 times after-tax operating income. It gives $22.11 per share and $44.22 per ADS. The base case assumes $2,700 million, up about 16%, at 12 times. It gives $30.15 per share and $60.29 per ADS. The high case assumes $3,100 million, up about 33%, at 14 times. It gives $38.65 per share and $77.29 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $60.52 per ADS.

As of 2026-11-12.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000117184326007191/f6k_110426ern.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000117184326007213/f6k_110426fs.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000155485526000490/ts-20251231.htm

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $4.1B
- Debt: $337M
- Net cash: $3.8B
- Debt due within 12 months: $337M

At September 30, 2026, Tenaris had net cash of $3,780 million, as it defines it: cash of $806 million, other current investments of $2,145 million and non-current investments of $1,164 million, less borrowings of $337 million. Lease liabilities were $148 million. Tenaris paid dividends of $606 million and bought back shares for $90 million in nine months, and free cash flow was $1.2 billion. Shareholders' equity was $16,853 million. Investments in non-consolidated companies had a carrying value of $1,653 million.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000117184326007191/f6k_110426ern.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000117184326007213/f6k_110426fs.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 2.0% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.20 (1 payment)
- Current annual rate: $2.32 (the last two payments)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-05-19, $1.20 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 51.6% a year
- Growth from 2015 to 2025: 2.2% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.86, 2017: $0.82, 2018: $0.82, 2019: $0.82, 2020: $0.14, 2021: $0.54, 2022: $0.90, 2023: $1.08, 2024: $1.34, 2025: $1.12.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-04: Tenaris reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $3,102 million, up 4% from a year earlier. Operating income was $598 million and net income was $521 million. Earnings were $1.01 per ADS. Free cash flow was $268 million, after an increase of $270 million in working capital.
- 2026-11-04: Tenaris said that it expects higher sales and EBITDA in Q4 2026, because of higher OCTG demand and prices in North America and more shipments to offshore projects.
- 2026-08-05: The board of Tenaris approved an interim dividend of $0.59 per outstanding share ($1.18 per ADS), about $600 million. It is payable on November 25, 2026, with a record date of November 24, 2026.
- 2026-05-12: Shareholders of Tenaris approved the cancellation of 62,355,174 treasury shares and an annual dividend of $0.89 per share ($1.78 per ADS). The balance of $0.60 per share was paid on May 20, 2026. Tenaris ended the second tranche of its third buyback program on March 3, 2026.
- 2026-05-08: Tenaris agreed to buy Artrom Steel Tubes, a Romanian maker of steel and seamless pipes, for EUR 86 million. EU competition authorities cleared the deal on October 12, 2026. Tenaris expects to close it in Q4 2026.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-17 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-03-31 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | ts-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000155485526000490/ts-20251231.htm |
| 2025-04-01 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | ts-20241231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1190723/000155485525000262/ts-20241231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1190723): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001190723&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Demand depends on oil and gas drilling, which changes with energy prices. The conflict in the Middle East closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, and the 6-K says that the full effect is not known.
- Medium: Costs can rise faster than prices. Raw material, energy and logistic costs rose in 2026, and the EBITDA margin for nine months fell by one percentage point.
- Medium: Tariffs on steel imports into the US and foreign exchange controls in Argentina can change margin. Both are listed in the notes to the interim statements.
- Low: Tenaris holds investments in non-consolidated companies, mainly Ternium. The carrying value of its Ternium stake was $1,445 million, and the market value was $1,247 million at September 30, 2026. A fall in these values reduces equity income and equity.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TS/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TS/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TS.json

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