# Trane Technologies (TT)

Sector: HVAC & climate equipment

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $420.56 |
| Market cap | $92B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-28 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that Trane can turn its record backlog into higher margins after the data center boom, and rising margins with strong orders through 2027 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, shows whether margins rise again and data center orders hold.

## About

Trane Technologies makes heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, building controls and transport refrigeration. Its main brands are Trane for buildings and homes and Thermo King for trucks, trailers and containers. It also sells service, parts and energy services. Large commercial buildings and data centers are its main markets. It has three segments: Americas, with revenue of $5.65 billion in Q3 2026, EMEA with $756 million and Asia Pacific with $356 million. In 2026, it bought Stellar Energy, which makes cooling systems for data centers, and the rest of LiquidStack, which makes liquid cooling. The company is registered in Ireland, and Dave Regnery is its chair and chief executive officer.

## Thesis

The market doubts that Trane can keep its fast growth and turn its large backlog into higher margins. Data center demand drove bookings up 20% in Q3 2026 and the backlog up 73% to $12.5 billion, and investors fear that this demand can slow after the AI build-out. Margins also fell. The adjusted operating margin fell to 20.2% in Q3 2026 from 20.6% because of supply chain costs, inflation and lower margins in EMEA and Asia Pacific. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Trane must turn the backlog into revenue on time, with organic revenue growth near the 11% it expects for 2026. The adjusted operating margin must rise again in 2027 as supply chain costs ease. Data center and commercial HVAC orders must stay strong so that book-to-bill stays above 100%. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, with the 2027 guidance, is the next test. If margins rise and orders hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: bookings and margin. Status: Passed. Watch: Bookings growth with book-to-bill above 100% and a stable or higher adjusted operating margin pass; falling bookings or a lower margin fail. Outcome: Organic bookings rose 20% and adjusted EPS rose 25%, but the adjusted operating margin fell 40 basis points to 20.2%.
- Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS of $15.20 to $15.30, book-to-bill above 100% and 2027 guidance for higher margins pass; falling orders or lower margin guidance fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.2B
- Debt: $4.2B
- Net debt: $3.0B
- Interest cover: 21×
- Undrawn credit line: $2.5B, to May 2030
- Debt due within 12 months: $293M
- Last debt due: 2049

Trane funds itself mainly with senior notes that are due from 2028 to 2049. Total debt was $4.22 billion at September 30, 2026, down from $4.62 billion a year earlier, after Trane repaid $400 million of 3.5% notes in March 2026. Debentures with a put feature of $293 million are shown as due within one year. Cash was $1.23 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 ($3.34 billion against $161 million). Two revolving credit facilities of $2.5 billion in total, $1.0 billion to May 2030 and $1.5 billion to April 2031, support a $2.5 billion commercial paper program. There were no borrowings under the facilities and no commercial paper at September 30, 2026. Free cash flow was $2.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026. To October 2026, Trane used or committed about $930 million for dividends, $1.08 billion for acquisitions and $1.4 billion for buybacks. There were 218,895,337 ordinary shares outstanding on October 23, 2026.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026068122/tt-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000146625826000001/exhibit991-q32026earningsr.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 0.7% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.15 (3 payments)
- Current annual rate: $4.20 ($1.05 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 22% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-04, $1.05 per share

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.0551, 2017: $1.3189, 2018: $1.5206, 2019: $1.6447, 2020: $2.12, 2021: $2.36, 2022: $2.68, 2023: $3.00, 2024: $3.36, 2025: $2.82.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-29: Trane reported Q3 2026 results. Organic bookings rose 20%, and the backlog rose 73% to $12.5 billion. Revenue rose 18% to $6.76 billion, or 16% organic. The adjusted operating margin fell 40 basis points to 20.2%. Adjusted EPS rose 25% to $4.86. Free cash flow for the first nine months was $2.8 billion. Trane raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about 13.5% reported growth and about 11% organic growth, and kept adjusted EPS guidance of $15.20 to $15.30.
- 2026-07-30: Trane reported Q2 2026 results. Organic bookings rose 37%, and Americas Commercial HVAC bookings rose 50%. The backlog reached a record $12.1 billion. Revenue rose 11% to $6.4 billion, and adjusted EPS rose 11% to $4.31. Trane raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $15.20 to $15.30.
- 2026-07-20: Trane said that Gary Guo, its chief global integrated supply chain officer, will leave the company on August 1, 2026.
- 2026-06-04: The Board of Trane appointed Donald Simmons, Group President of the Americas, as executive vice president and chief operating officer from July 1, 2026.
- 2026-04-30: Trane reported Q1 2026 results. Organic bookings rose 24%, and the backlog reached $10.7 billion. Revenue rose 6% to $5.0 billion, and adjusted EPS rose 7% to $2.63. Trane raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $14.75 to $14.95.
- 2026-04-23: Trane signed a new $1.5 billion revolving credit facility to April 2031. It replaced a $1.0 billion facility that was due to end in April 2027.
- 2026-02-17: Trane bought Stellar Energy Americas, which makes turnkey cooling systems for data centers, for gross consideration of $553.4 million. In the first nine months of 2026, Trane also bought the rest of LiquidStack, a liquid cooling company, and some transport refrigeration distributors.
- 2026-01-29: Trane reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results. For 2025, revenue rose 7% to $21.3 billion, and adjusted EPS rose 16% to $13.06. The backlog was a record $7.8 billion at year end. Trane gave 2026 guidance for EPS of $14.65 to $14.85.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000146625826000001/)
- Next earnings: 2027-01-28 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | tt-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026068122/tt-20260930.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | tt-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000146625826000001/tt-20261029.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | tt-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026051117/tt-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | tt-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026050743/tt-20260730.htm |
| 2026-07-22 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | tt-20260720 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026049227/tt-20260720.htm |
| 2026-06-10 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure |  | tt-20260604 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026042055/tt-20260604.htm |
| 2026-06-05 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  | tt-20260604 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026041032/tt-20260604.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | tt-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026028743/tt-20260331.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | tt-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026028547/tt-20260430.htm |
| 2026-04-24 | 8-K | New material agreement |  | tt-20260423 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026026988/tt-20260423.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1466258): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001466258&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Data center cooling is a large part of recent orders. If the spending of AI and cloud companies on data centers slows, bookings and backlog can fall quickly.
- Medium: Margins fell in Q3 2026 because of supply chain costs and inflation. The adjusted operating margin fell 250 basis points in EMEA and 390 basis points in Asia Pacific. If costs keep rising faster than prices, earnings can grow more slowly than revenue.
- Low: Commercial construction and residential HVAC demand depend on interest rates and the economy. Higher rates or a recession can lower new orders.
- Low: Two former subsidiaries, Aldrich Pump and Murray Boiler, are in Chapter 11 proceedings for asbestos claims. The outcome can change the amount that Trane must pay.
- Low: Trane buys companies to grow in data center cooling. In 2026, it paid about $1.08 billion for acquisitions to October. A purchase that does not perform can lower returns.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TT/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/TT/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/TT.json

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