# Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Sector: Beauty retail | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $659.08 | | Market cap | $28B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2026-12-03 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for the steady store and online growth of Ulta, and only comparable sales that stay positive with a steady margin as competition rises can earn this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q3 report in early December 2026 and the Q4 report in March 2027 show whether comparable sales and margin stay on the guidance. ## About Ulta Beauty, Inc. (Ulta Beauty) is a specialty beauty retailer based in Bolingbrook, Illinois. It sells cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care and wellness products, and it offers salon services, in stores, on its website and in its app. At August 1, 2026, it had 1,534 Ulta Beauty stores in 50 states and 86 Space NK stores in the United Kingdom and Ireland, which it bought in July 2025. In fiscal 2025, which ended January 31, 2026, net sales were $12.4 billion and operating income was $1.53 billion. Kecia Steelman is President and Chief Executive Officer. Ulta Beauty files 10-K and 10-Q reports with the SEC, and its common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Its fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to January 31. ## Thesis The price of Ulta Beauty depends on whether it can keep growing sales and keep its operating margin near 12.5% while shoppers spend more carefully. In Q2 of fiscal 2026, net sales rose 8.9% to $3,035.7 million, comparable sales rose 3.8% and diluted EPS rose 13.3% to $6.55. The company raised its guidance for the year to diluted EPS of $28.70 to $29.00. Part of the EPS growth comes from buybacks: the diluted share count fell from 45.1 million to 43.1 million in a year, and the company plans to buy back $1.8 billion of stock in fiscal 2026. The Space NK business lowered the gross margin a little, to 39.1% from 39.2%. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Comparable sales must stay positive, in line with the guidance of 3.2% to 3.7%. The operating margin must stay near 12.6% while the company pays for new brands and stores. The buybacks must continue without much more debt: short-term debt was $339.6 million at August 1, 2026, against $62.3 million at the start of the year. The next tests are the Q3 report, expected in early December 2026, and the Q4 report with the outlook for fiscal 2027, expected in March 2027. ## Checkpoints - Dec 3, 2026 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2026 results: comparable sales and margin. Status: Pending. Watch: Comparable sales grow and the operating margin stays near 12.6%, and this passes; a fall in comparable sales or in margin fails. - Mar 2027 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2026 results and the outlook for fiscal 2027. Status: Pending. Watch: The outlook for fiscal 2027 shows net sales growth of about 5% or more and a steady margin, and this passes; a weaker outlook fails. - Jun 2027 (estimate): Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Status: Pending. Watch: Comparable sales stay positive without more debt for buybacks, and this passes; a clear slowdown fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $214M - Debt: $340M - Net debt: $126M - Debt due within 12 months: $340M At August 1, 2026, Ulta Beauty had cash of $158.5 million and short-term investments of $55.0 million. Short-term debt was $339.6 million: $287.0 million under its revolving loan of up to $1.0 billion, which matures on March 13, 2029, and $52.6 million under the credit facility of Space NK. Inventories were $2.4 billion, about the same as a year before. Operating lease liabilities were about $2.2 billion. Total stockholders' equity was $2,643.7 million, down from $2,803.5 million at January 31, 2026, because the company bought back $791.1 million of stock in the first six months. Capital spending was $139.5 million in that period, and the company expects $400 million to $450 million for fiscal 2026. As of 2026-08-01. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926102442/ulta-20260801x10q.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926102438/ulta-20260827xex99d1.htm ## Dividends Ulta Beauty does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-08-27: Ulta Beauty reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results. Net sales rose 8.9% to $3,035.7 million, comparable sales rose 3.8% and operating income rose 10.1% to $379.6 million. Diluted EPS rose 13.3% to $6.55. - 2026-08-27: Ulta Beauty raised its guidance for fiscal 2026 to net sales growth of 6.7% to 7.2%, comparable sales growth of 3.2% to 3.7% and diluted EPS of $28.70 to $29.00. It raised its buyback plan for the year to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion. - 2026-08-27: In the first six months, Ulta Beauty bought back 1.4 million shares for $791.1 million. It expects to use the $1.0 billion that remains under its authorization of $3.0 billion by the end of fiscal 2026. - 2026-08-17: The board appointed Brieane L. Olson as an independent director from August 31, 2026. She takes the seat of Kelly E. Garcia, who resigns from the board on that date. - 2026-03-26: Ulta Beauty filed its Form 10-K for fiscal 2025. Net sales rose 9.7% to $12.4 billion, and operating income was $1,533.0 million, against $1,565.0 million a year before. Diluted EPS was $25.64. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-08-27 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926102438/) - Next earnings: 2026-12-03 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-08-27 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | ulta-20260801x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926102442/ulta-20260801x10q.htm | | 2026-08-27 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ulta-20260827x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926102438/ | | 2026-08-17 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Other company news | | ulta-20260813x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926097497/ulta-20260813x8k.htm | | 2026-07-14 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | ulta-20260714x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926083524/ulta-20260714x8k.htm | | 2026-06-09 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Change to shareholder rights or bylaws | | ulta-20260609x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926071896/ulta-20260609x8k.htm | | 2026-06-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended May 2, 2026 | 2026-05-02 | ulta-20260502x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926069491/ulta-20260502x10q.htm | | 2026-06-02 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ulta-20260602x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926069464/ | | 2026-03-26 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jan 31, 2026 | 2026-01-31 | ulta-20260131x10k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm | | 2026-03-12 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ulta-20260312x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926027061/ | | 2025-12-18 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | ulta-20251215x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465925122603/ulta-20251215x8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1403568): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001403568&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Shoppers can spend less on beauty. Comparable sales rose 3.8% in Q2, down from 6.7% a year before. A weak economy or high prices would cut traffic and sales. - Medium: Competition is strong. Beauty brands sell through many channels, and a loss of key brands or shoppers would cut sales and margin. - Low: Leases are a large fixed cost. Operating lease liabilities were about $2.2 billion at August 1, 2026. A fall in sales would leave rent costs that the company cannot cut fast. - Low: Buybacks are partly paid with debt. Short-term debt was $339.6 million at August 1, 2026, against $62.3 million at January 31, 2026. A weak quarter would leave less room for buybacks. - Low: Space NK is a new business in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Its mix cut the gross margin in Q2, and its results can miss the plan. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ULTA/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ULTA/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ULTA.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.