# Venture Global (VG)

Sector: Liquefied natural gas exporter

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $12.66 |
| Market cap | $32B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-03-01 (estimate) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that Venture Global can carry its debt and the costs of its customer disputes, and a start of Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 in mid-2027 can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), High debt (leverage), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report, the BP damages hearing in May 2027 and the start of Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 in mid-2027 show whether cash flow can carry the debt and legal costs stay limited.

## About

Venture Global, Inc. (Venture Global) is an American producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is based in Arlington, Virginia. It has three LNG projects. Calcasieu Pass began commercial operations in April 2025. Plaquemines began commercial operations at its first phase on October 31, 2026. CP2 is under construction, and Venture Global expects first LNG in mid-2027. Venture Global says that it has more than 100 million tonnes a year of capacity in production, construction or development. It sells LNG under long-term sales and purchase agreements, and its new agreements last 20 years. It exported 124 cargos in Q3 2026 and 381 cargos in nine months. Revenue was $4,756 million in Q3 2026. Mike Sabel is Chief Executive Officer. The Class A common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. Venture Global files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

## Thesis

The price of Venture Global depends on whether cash flow from its new plants can carry its large debt, and on how its customer disputes end. Plaquemines Phase 1 began to deliver under its long-term contracts on October 31, 2026, so more of the sales of 2027 come from long-term contracts and fewer from commissioning cargos. Total debt was $45,126 million at September 30, 2026, and CP2 still draws more. BP seeks damages of $3.7 billion to more than $6.0 billion in an arbitration over the start date of Calcasieu Pass, and the damages hearing is set for May 2027. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 must start in mid-2027 as planned. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for 2027 must stay near the 2026 guidance of $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion after the commissioning cargos end. The BP award must be much lower than the claim. The financing for the expansions and for the power projects for data centers must not add much debt. The Q4 2026 report in early 2027 and the BP hearing in May 2027 are the next tests. If these hold, the gap can close over two years. If an award is large, or if a plant starts late, the gap can last longer.

## Checkpoints

- Mar 1, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: Venture Global meets its 2026 guidance for Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and keeps Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 on a mid-2027 start, and this passes; a later start or a lower outlook fails.
- May 2027 (estimate): BP damages hearing. Status: Pending. Watch: The damages hearing takes place and the final award is much lower than the $3.7 billion that BP seeks, and this passes; an award near or above this fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $3.4B
- Debt: $45.1B
- Net debt: $41.7B
- Debt due within 12 months: $1.7B

At September 30, 2026, Venture Global had total debt of $45,126 million at principal, of which $1,694 million is current, against $34,812 million at December 31, 2025. Cash and cash equivalents were $3,420 million, and restricted cash was $1,707 million. Net debt was $41,706 million on cash and cash equivalents alone. The CP2 credit facilities were $10,570 million. Non-controlling interests were $3,429 million. VGLNG Series A Preferred Shares, 3 million shares at 9.000%, rank before the common stock of the group. In September 2026, a $3.0 billion revolving credit facility was signed, which matures in September 2027. Capital expenditures were $10,742 million in nine months. Stockholders' equity of Venture Global was $11,064 million.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000091/vgincq32026earningsrelease.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000088/vg-20260930.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 0.4% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.053 (3 payments)
- Payout ratio: 8% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-15, $0.04 per share

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.00, 2020: $0.00, 2021: $0.00, 2022: $0.00, 2023: $0.00, 2024: $0.00, 2025: $0.068.

One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-10: Venture Global reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 43% to $4,756 million, income from operations was $2,295 million, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $2,583 million. Net income to common stockholders was $2,546 million, which includes a gain of $1,368 million on interest rate swaps. It raised the 2026 guidance for Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA to $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion, from $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion, and declared a dividend of $0.04 per share.
- 2026-10-31: Plaquemines Phase 1 reached its commercial operations date and began to sell LNG under its long-term contracts. Venture Global said that this came just over 53 months after the final investment decision, and that it had loaded six cargos for these customers by November 10.
- 2026-10-09: Venture Global signed frame agreements with GE Vernova, Baker Hughes and GE Grid for up to 16 power islands of 720 MW each and for grid equipment. The total would be about $17.2 billion if it orders everything, and only reservation fees bind it now. Venture Global says that it can offer power and land for data centers, with compute capacity from late 2028.
- 2026-10-07: An arbitration tribunal issued a partial final award in the dispute with Galp over the start date of Calcasieu Pass. A majority found that Venture Global breached its duty to declare the start in time, and one arbitrator disagreed. Damages will come later and are subject to a cap of $170 million.
- 2026-09-02: Venture Global LNG signed a 364-day secured revolving credit facility of $3.0 billion with Bank of America as agent. The facility matures on September 1, 2027.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-10 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000091/)
- Next earnings: 2027-03-01 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-10 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | vg-20261110 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000091/ |
| 2026-11-10 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | vg-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000088/vg-20260930.htm |
| 2026-10-15 | 8-K | New material agreement and Other company news |  | vg-20261009 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000081/vg-20261009.htm |
| 2026-10-08 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  | vg-20261007 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000072/vg-20261007.htm |
| 2026-10-07 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | vg-20261007 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000069/ |
| 2026-09-02 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  | vg-20260902 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000066/vg-20260902.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | vg-20260811 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000063/ |
| 2026-08-11 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | vg-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000062/vg-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-08 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | vg-20260708 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000057/ |
| 2026-06-26 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  | vg-20260626 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007855/000200785526000055/vg-20260626.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 2007855): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002007855&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Customer disputes can cost a lot. BP seeks $3.7 billion to more than $6.0 billion, and Venture Global does not expect the BP award to be subject to the liability cap. Another customer seeks more than $2.0 billion, and Venture Global says that its cap is $255 million. The 10-Q says that a bad result can bring payments above the limits and can accelerate project debt.
- High: Debt is very large. Total debt was $45,126 million at September 30, 2026, against $34,812 million at December 31, 2025, and the CP2 project still draws on its credit facilities.
- Medium: Fees and prices can fall. The 2026 guidance assumes fees of $21.00 to $22.00 per MMBtu for the few cargos not yet sold. A change of $1.00 in the fee changes 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA by $20 million to $30 million.
- Medium: Plants can start late or cost more. Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 are due in mid-2027. The Plaquemines and CP2 expansions still need approvals from FERC and the Department of Energy.
- Medium: The data center plan is new. The frame agreements could cost about $17.2 billion if Venture Global orders everything. It says that data center and power projects need large spending before revenue starts.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/VG/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/VG/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/VG.json

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