# Vistra (VST)

Sector: Power generation and retail electricity

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $133.45 |
| Market cap | $45B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-25 (estimate) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Far above intrinsic value

## In short

Vistra trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for its high power prices and data center demand, and only long-term contracts that keep 2027 earnings in range can support this price.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), AI supplier (ai-supplier), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and new long-term data center contracts show whether 2027 earnings reach the guided range.

## About

Vistra Corp. (Vistra) is a Texas company that makes electricity and sells it to homes and businesses. Its fleet runs on natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and batteries. It reports Retail, Texas, East, West and Asset Closure, which holds plants that will close. On October 30, 2026, it closed its purchase of Cogentrix Energy, which added 10 modern gas plants with about 5,500 MW of capacity. It paid about $2.2 billion in cash and 5,000,000 Vistra shares at an agreed $185 per share, and it repaid $1.7 billion of Cogentrix debt on November 5. In October 2025 it bought the Lotus plants, seven gas plants. On October 8, 2026, it sold 754 MW of gas plants in New England and New York. Vistra had 339.4 million shares at November 2, 2026, about 30% fewer than in November 2021 because of buybacks. Jim Burke is President and Chief Executive Officer. Its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Texas.

## Thesis

Vistra trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for its jump in earnings from high power prices and data center demand, even though it is a merchant power company whose earnings depend on power prices and on a few large contracts. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose from $4,170 million in nine months of 2025 to $5,639 million in nine months of 2026, helped by high energy and capacity prices, the Lotus plants and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1. Vistra has $21.1 billion of debt, and it paid for Cogentrix and for the redemption of $2.0 billion of Series A and Series B preferred stock with cash and new debt. Its 2027 guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion is a wide range, with about 98% of expected generation hedged. For the price to hold, three things must be true. Vistra must reach 2027 EBITDA near the middle of the range, with Cogentrix running as planned. It must sign more long-term contracts with data center customers, as it did with Microsoft for the Pulaski solar plant and with New Era for its Odessa gas plant. And it must keep debt in line while it buys back shares. Each report through 2027 and the hedge levels show this. The Q4 2026 report is expected in February 2027.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 6, 2026: Q3 2026 results: guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: A higher 2026 midpoint and 2027 guidance that starts at $7.7 billion or more pass; a cut to 2026 fails. Outcome: Vistra narrowed 2026 to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, a higher midpoint, and set 2027 at $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.
- Dec 15, 2026: Series B preferred stock redemption. Status: Pending. Watch: Vistra redeems all Series B preferred stock on December 15, 2026 and keeps pro forma liquidity near $5 billion or more; a delay or lower liquidity fails.
- Feb 25, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: 2026 EBITDA and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 EBITDA within $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and 2027 guidance kept or raised pass; a result below $7.1 billion or a lower 2027 range fails.

## Balance sheet

Vistra reported cash of $2,743 million and total long-term debt of $21,146 million at September 30, 2026, of which $2,877 million is due within a year. The debt includes $17,650 million of senior notes and $1,500 million of junior subordinated notes issued in September 2026. Preferred stock was $2,476 million: Series A of $1,000 million (redeemed October 15, 2026), Series B of $1,000 million (to be redeemed December 15, 2026) and Series C of $476 million. Liquidity was about $8,923 million, including $4,714 million available under the revolving credit facility that runs to October 2029. After the Cogentrix cash payment, the repayment of its $1.7 billion of debt and the Series A redemption, pro forma liquidity was about $5.4 billion. Vistra has bought back about $6.7 billion of shares since November 2021 and has about $2.5 billion of authorization left.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000023/vistra-20260930xearningsre.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000025/vistra-20260930.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 0.7% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.914 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $0.92 ($0.23 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 41% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-21, $0.23 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 10.8% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $2.32, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.50, 2020: $0.54, 2021: $0.60, 2022: $0.724, 2023: $0.821, 2024: $0.875, 2025: $0.902.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-09: Vistra filed its Form 10-Q for Q3 2026. It shows cash of $2,743 million and total long-term debt of $21,146 million, 339,394,683 shares at November 2, 2026, and a quarterly dividend of $0.2310 per share that the board declared in October for payment in December.
- 2026-11-06: Vistra reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $1,140 million, which includes an unrealized hedge gain of $559 million. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $2,378 million, up more than 50%. Vistra narrowed its 2026 guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, set 2027 guidance at $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion and added $1.5 billion to its share repurchase authorization.
- 2026-10-30: Vistra closed the Cogentrix Energy purchase. It paid about $2.2 billion in cash, assumed $1.7 billion of debt that it repaid on November 5, and issued 5,000,000 shares to the seller, who agreed not to sell them until January 30, 2027.
- 2026-10-15: Vistra redeemed all of its Series A preferred stock, $1.0 billion at a rate of 8.0%. It gave notice that it will redeem all of the Series B preferred stock on December 15, 2026.
- 2026-10-08: Vistra sold its Casco Bay, Beaver Falls and Syracuse gas plants, a total of 754 MW in New England and New York.
- 2026-09-24: Vistra Operations issued $850 million of 7.000% Series A and $650 million of 7.250% Series B junior subordinated notes due 2057. Vistra used the proceeds, with cash, to fund the redemption of its preferred stock.
- 2026-08-07: Vistra reported Q2 2026 results. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $1,767 million, up more than 30%. It announced Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, KIA and NVIDIA, with a commitment of up to $1.0 billion from Vistra, and it received FERC approval for the Cogentrix purchase.
- 2026-07-14: Vistra cleared about 10,924 MW in the PJM capacity auction for the 2028/2029 planning year at a weighted average price of $325.00 per megawatt-day.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-06 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000023/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-25 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-09 | 8-K | Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126042795/ef20085053_8k.htm |
| 2026-11-09 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | vistra-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000025/vistra-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-06 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | vistra-20261106 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000023/ |
| 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Acquisition or sale completed and New debt or financial obligation |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126042013/ef20084950_8k.htm |
| 2026-10-05 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126038468/ef20083016_8k.htm |
| 2026-09-24 | 8-K | New material agreement and Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126037577/ef20082680_8k.htm |
| 2026-08-10 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | vistra-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000019/vistra-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | vistra-20260807 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000017/ |
| 2026-07-16 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126028619/ef20077984_8k.htm |
| 2026-07-14 | 8-K | Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126028454/ef20077988_8k.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1692819): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001692819&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Power prices drive earnings. Vistra hedged about 100% of 2026 and 98% of 2027 generation, but only about 78% of 2028 at October 30, 2026. The 2027 EBITDA range of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion is $800 million wide. Lower prices for 2028 and later would cut earnings.
- High: Debt is large. Total long-term debt was $21,146 million at September 30, 2026, before the $3.9 billion of cash and debt payments for Cogentrix. Interest expense in the 2027 guidance is $1,430 million. Higher interest rates or lower earnings would make debt harder to carry.
- Medium: Plants can fail or lose value. In Q3 2026, Vistra booked an impairment of $269 million on the 350 MW Moss Landing battery plant after the Moss Landing incident. Heat, storms and unplanned outages can stop plants when prices are high.
- Medium: Market rules and customer deals can change. Capacity prices in PJM and the rules in Texas set part of Vistra's earnings, and the new data center contracts are few. A delay in a large contract would slow the growth that the price already expects.
- Low: The Cogentrix purchase must be joined to the fleet. It adds 10 plants. The release that gives the 2027 guidance does not say whether the range includes Cogentrix, and Vistra will give the purchase accounting in a later filing.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/VST/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/VST/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/VST.json

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