# Waste Connections (WCN) Sector: Solid waste services | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | CA$271.03 | | Market cap | CA$68B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-10 (estimate) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Waste Connections' price already includes years of steady growth and a high margin, and only years of price increases above costs, acquisitions and repurchases can support this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Only several years of price increases, acquisitions and free cash flow growth can show the value of the business. ## About Waste Connections, Inc. (Waste Connections) collects, transfers and disposes of non-hazardous solid waste, and it recovers materials through recycling and renewable fuels. It serves about nine million residential, commercial and industrial customers in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces, mostly in exclusive and secondary markets. It also treats and disposes of oilfield waste (E&P waste) in several basins in the United States and Canada. Revenue was $9.467 billion in 2025 and $2.638 billion in Q3 2026. The company is incorporated in Ontario and reports in U.S. dollars. Its shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange as WCN. The head office is in The Woodlands, Texas. Ronald J. Mittelstaedt is President and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis Waste Connections' price already includes many years of steady growth for a waste company. Price increases, landfill volumes and acquisitions drive earnings, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.0% in Q3 2026. Growth can still slow, because solid waste volumes only started to improve in 2026, commodity revenue and E&P waste depend on oil and recycled material prices, and diesel costs rose late in Q3 2026. For the price to hold, three things must be true. Price increases must stay above cost inflation while volumes recover. Acquisitions must keep adding revenue at good returns. And adjusted free cash flow must keep growing at about 10% a year while the company repurchases shares and raises the dividend. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, is the next test. ## Checkpoints - Oct 21, 2026: Q3 2026 results: margin and volumes. Status: Passed. Watch: An adjusted EBITDA margin of 33% or more with an unchanged or higher 2026 outlook passes; a lower outlook fails. Outcome: The margin was 34.0%, solid waste volumes improved from Q2, and the 2026 outlook rose for the second time. - Feb 10, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of about 6% or more passes; lower growth fails. - Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: volumes and fuel costs. Status: Pending. Watch: Positive solid waste volume growth with a stable margin passes; falling volumes or a lower margin fail. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $96M - Debt: $9.5B - Net debt: $9.4B - EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.3B - Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9× (medium) - Undrawn credit line: $949M, to February 2029 - Debt due within 12 months: $7.8M - Last debt due: 2052 Waste Connections funds its business with senior notes, a revolving credit facility and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, debt principal was $9,510 million, including $1,929 million drawn on the revolving credit facility, and cash and equivalents were $95.7 million. The current portion of debt was $7.8 million. The revolving credit facility matures on February 27, 2029, and $948.5 million of it was available after $122.2 million of letters of credit. The senior notes are due from 2028 to 2052. In 2026, the company issued $600 million of 4.80% notes due 2036 in March, and C$300 million of 4.20% notes due 2033 and C$400 million of 4.55% notes due 2036 in August. Adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to September 30, 2026 was about $3,301 million, from the 2025 and Q3 2026 releases. In the first nine months of 2026, the company repurchased 5,731,941 shares for $944.4 million and paid dividends of $265.5 million. It expects adjusted free cash flow of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion in 2026. At October 9, 2026, there were 250,175,523 common shares. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926117943/wcn-20260930x10q.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926117838/wcn-ex99d1.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013370/wcn-20260211xex99d1.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.7% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: CA$1.984 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: CA$2.152 (CA$0.538 x 4 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-11-05, CA$0.538 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 12.1% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 7.1% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: CA$0.6757, 2017: CA$0.6537, 2018: CA$0.539, 2019: CA$0.881, 2020: CA$1.023, 2021: CA$1.052, 2022: CA$1.221, 2023: CA$1.42, 2024: CA$1.606, 2025: CA$1.814. One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-10-21: Waste Connections reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose to $2.638 billion from $2.458 billion, adjusted EPS rose to $1.58 from $1.44, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.0%. It raised its 2026 outlook for the second time, to revenue of about $10.09 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $3.345 billion. - 2026-10-21: The Board raised the quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.385 per share from $0.350. Share repurchases in 2026 to the date of the report were more than $1 billion, about 2.5% of the shares. - 2026-08-07: Waste Connections renewed its normal course issuer bid. It can repurchase up to 12,578,462 shares from August 12, 2026 to August 11, 2027. - 2026-08-04: Waste Connections issued C$300 million of 4.20% senior notes due 2033 and C$400 million of 4.55% senior notes due 2036. - 2026-02-11: Waste Connections reported 2025 results. Revenue rose to $9.467 billion and adjusted EPS to $5.15. Its first 2026 outlook was revenue of $9.90 billion to $9.95 billion. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-21 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926117838/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-10 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-22 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | wcn-20260930x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926117943/wcn-20260930x10q.htm | | 2026-10-21 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | wcn-20261021x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926117838/ | | 2026-08-07 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926092680/tm2622609d1_8k.htm | | 2026-08-04 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926090339/tm2622128d1_8k.htm | | 2026-07-28 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926087330/tm2621340d6_8k.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | wcn-20260630x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926086006/wcn-20260630x10q.htm | | 2026-07-22 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | wcn-20260722x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926085802/ | | 2026-05-15 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results and Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926062507/tm2614785d1_8k.htm | | 2026-04-23 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | wcn-20260331x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926047074/wcn-20260331x10q.htm | | 2026-04-22 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | wcn-20260422x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926046820/ | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1318220): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001318220&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Revenue from recycled materials, renewable fuels and E&P waste moves with market prices and oil and gas drilling. Lower prices or less drilling would lower revenue and margins. - Medium: Fuel and labor are large costs. A late rise in diesel prices hurt margins in Q3 2026, and higher wages can do the same. - Medium: Acquisitions are a main source of growth. Fewer deals, higher prices for targets or weak results from bought companies would slow growth. - Medium: Landfills carry long environmental duties. Impairments and other operating items were $139.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, and new environmental liabilities can cause more charges. - Low: Debt principal was $9.5 billion at September 30, 2026, and the revolving credit facility pays floating rates. Higher interest rates would raise interest costs. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/WCN/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/WCN/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/WCN.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.