# Xcel Energy (XEL) Sector: Regulated electric and natural gas utility | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $80.12 | | Market cap | $51B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay for Xcel Energy's large capital plan and growth in power demand, and only fair rate outcomes and no new large wildfire losses can support this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), AI supplier (ai-supplier), Interest rates (interest-rates), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Minnesota decision on the Rate Stability Plan and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027 show whether the $70 billion capital plan turns into the planned EPS growth. ## About Xcel Energy Inc. (Xcel Energy) owns four regulated utilities that sell electricity and natural gas: Northern States Power Company in Minnesota (NSP-Minnesota) and in Wisconsin (NSP-Wisconsin), Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), and Southwestern Public Service Company (SPS) in Texas and New Mexico. They generate, transmit and distribute electricity, and they distribute natural gas. Revenue was $11,312 million in the first nine months of 2026, of which $9,604 million came from electricity. Xcel Energy says that it is one of the largest builders of clean generation and high-voltage transmission in the United States. The shares trade on the Nasdaq. The head office is in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Bob Frenzel is Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis Xcel Energy's price already includes fast earnings growth from a large investment plan, more than a steady utility usually gets. Xcel Energy plans base capital expenditures of $70 billion from 2027 to 2031, mainly for renewables, transmission, distribution and generation for new large customers such as data centers. It expects ongoing EPS of $4.48 to $4.62 in 2027 and long-term EPS growth of 6% to 8% or more. But it must issue many new shares to fund the plan, and wildfires in Colorado and Texas brought large claims. For the price to hold, three things must be true. Regulators must approve rate cases and riders with fair returns, such as the Minnesota Rate Stability Plan. Sales must grow by about 5% in 2027, with large loads such as the Google data center in Minnesota. And new wildfires must not bring large new losses. The Minnesota decision, expected in January 2027, and the Q4 2026 report are the next tests. ## Checkpoints - Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: 2026 guidance kept or narrowed and 2027 guidance for EPS growth of 6% or more pass; lower guidance fails. Outcome: Xcel Energy narrowed its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10 to $4.16 and gave 2027 guidance of $4.48 to $4.62. - Jan 2027 (estimate): Minnesota decision on the Rate Stability Plan. Status: Pending. Watch: Approval of the base rate freeze with the tax credit offset passes; a rejection that leads to a contested rate case fails. - Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 ongoing EPS of $4.10 or more and confirmed 2027 guidance pass; a cut fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $2.5B - Debt: $40.6B - Net debt: $38.1B - Undrawn credit line: $3.3B, to December 2029 - Debt due within 12 months: $4.1B - Ratings: Moody's Baa1 (negative outlook), S&P BBB (stable outlook), Fitch BBB+ (stable outlook) Xcel Energy funds its utilities with first mortgage bonds, holding company debt, new shares and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $40,598 million: $3,060 million of short-term debt, $999 million of current long-term debt and $36,539 million of long-term debt. Debt was 62% of total capitalization, and common equity was $25,501 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $2,483 million. At October 27, 2026, committed credit facilities of $4,750 million, which expire in December 2029, had $3,318 million available. A $1.5 billion term loan of Xcel Energy Inc. matures in January 2027. In November 2026, Xcel Energy issued $2.5 billion of convertible notes due December 2027 to repay short-term borrowings. At September 30, 2026, 79.4 million shares remained unsettled under forward sale agreements, with minimum expected proceeds of $5.8 billion. At October 28, 2026, Moody's rated the unsecured debt of Xcel Energy Inc. Baa1 with a negative outlook, S&P BBB with a stable outlook and Fitch BBB+ with a stable outlook. At October 27, 2026, there were 641,874,448 shares. The quarterly dividend is $0.5925 per share. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000178/xcelearningsreleaseq32026.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000181/xel-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000119312526449951/d482423d8k.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 2.9% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $2.349 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $2.372 ($0.593 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 83% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-15, $0.593 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 10.5% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 8.2% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.36, 2017: $1.44, 2018: $1.52, 2019: $1.62, 2020: $1.72, 2021: $1.832, 2022: $1.952, 2023: $2.08, 2024: $1.644, 2025: $2.828. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10. ## Recent events - 2026-11-05: Xcel Energy issued $2.5 billion of 2.625% convertible senior notes due December 15, 2027, with an initial conversion price of about $87.26 per share. It uses the money to repay short-term borrowings. - 2026-10-30: Xcel Energy started a new at-the-market equity program for the sale of up to $6.0 billion of common stock, including forward sales. - 2026-10-29: Xcel Energy reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP and ongoing EPS were $1.52, against ongoing EPS of $1.24 in Q3 2025. It narrowed its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10 to $4.16, gave 2027 guidance of $4.48 to $4.62 and gave a base capital plan of $70 billion for 2027 to 2031. - 2026-10-09: NSP-Minnesota asked the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to approve a Rate Stability Plan, with no change to base electric rates in 2027 and 2028, in place of a new rate case. - 2026-07-30: Xcel Energy reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP and ongoing EPS were $0.93, against $0.75 in Q2 2025. - 2026-04-30: Xcel Energy reported Q1 2026 results. Ongoing EPS was $0.91, against $0.84 in Q1 2025. - 2026-02-05: Xcel Energy reported 2025 results. Ongoing EPS was $3.80, against $3.50 in 2024, and GAAP EPS was $3.42. It gave 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000178/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-29 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-05 | 8-K | New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000119312526449951/d482423d8k.htm | | 2026-11-03 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000119312526444394/d205441d8k.htm | | 2026-11-02 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000119312526442653/d132424d8k.htm | | 2026-10-30 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000119312526441768/d183277d8k.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | xel-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000181/xel-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release | | xel-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000178/ | | 2026-10-09 | 8-K | Other company news | | xel-20261009 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000175/xel-20261009.htm | | 2026-08-20 | 8-K | Other company news | | xel-20260819 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000160/xel-20260819.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | xel-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000154/xel-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | xel-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72903/000007290326000149/ | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 72903): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000072903&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The Texas A&M Forest Service found that SPS power lines caused the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex in 2024. Xcel Energy estimates total losses of $475 million, but the lawsuit of the Texas Attorney General and other claims can bring more. New wildfires in Colorado or Texas can bring large claims. - Medium: Xcel Energy plans to fund $70 billion of base capital expenditures from 2027 to 2031 with $26,190 million of new debt and $8,000 million of new equity. New shares reduce EPS growth. - Medium: Regulators set the allowed returns. Recent rate decisions and settlements gave returns on equity of 9.2% to 9.6%. Lower returns or a rejection of the Minnesota Rate Stability Plan can lower earnings. - Medium: Higher interest rates increase financing costs. Xcel Energy expects interest expense, net of AFUDC, to rise by $320 million to $330 million in 2027. - Low: Large loads such as data centers can arrive later than planned, which can lower sales growth. - Low: Moody's has a negative outlook on Xcel Energy Inc. and PSCo. A downgrade can increase borrowing costs. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/XEL/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/XEL/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/XEL.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.