# XPO (XPO)

Sector: Less-than-truckload freight transportation

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $188.59 |
| Market cap | $22B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-13 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-04 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Far above intrinsic value

## In short

Investors pay a premium for the fast margin gains of XPO in LTL freight, and only more yield and cost gains through 2027, while freight demand stays weak, can earn this price.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, and the 2027 results show whether LTL yield and margin gains continue while freight demand stays weak.

## About

XPO, Inc. (XPO) is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. It is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, where it moves shipments from many customers on the same trucks through a network of terminals. It also has a European Transportation segment with truckload brokerage, LTL and other services in France, Spain, Portugal and the UK. Revenue was $2,373 million in Q3 2026: $1,473 million from North American LTL and $900 million from Europe. XPO has 575 locations and 38,000 employees. The common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. XPO files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

## Thesis

The price of XPO depends on whether it can keep raising LTL prices and lowering costs while freight demand is weak. In Q3 2026 the adjusted operating ratio of North American LTL improved 260 basis points to 80.1%, yield excluding fuel rose 3.6% and tonnage per day rose 5.0%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 59% to $1.70. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. Yield must keep rising faster than costs for wages and fuel. Volume must keep growing as XPO wins business with better service. The European business must stay profitable. XPO must keep lowering its debt while it repurchases shares. XPO targets adjusted EBITDA growth of 11% to 13% a year for North American LTL from 2021 to 2027. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test, and the results for 2027 show whether XPO reaches the target.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results. Status: Pending. Watch: The adjusted operating ratio of North American LTL improves against Q4 2025 and adjusted diluted earnings per share grow, and this passes; a worse operating ratio fails.
- Feb 2028 (estimate): 2027 results against the LTL target. Status: Pending. Watch: Adjusted EBITDA of North American LTL grows 11% to 13% a year from 2021 to 2027, as XPO targets, and this passes; growth below 11% a year fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $260M
- Debt: $3.2B
- Net debt: $2.9B
- Undrawn credit line: $600M
- Debt due within 12 months: $129M
- Last debt due: 2034

At September 30, 2026, XPO had total debt principal of $3,207 million, with a carrying value of $3,124 million. It consisted of the Term Loan A Facility of $500 million, the Term Loan B Facility of $285 million, 6.25% senior secured notes due 2028 of $830 million, 7.125% senior notes due 2031 of $450 million, 7.125% senior notes due 2032 of $585 million, 6.70% senior debentures due 2034 of $300 million and finance leases and other debt of $257 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $260 million, and total liquidity with the revolving credit facility was about $860 million. Operating cash flow was $906 million for nine months. XPO expects gross capital spending of $500 million to $600 million in 2026. Operating lease liabilities are not in these figures.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000092/xpo-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119828/tm2628363d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119829/tm2628363d2_ex99-1.htm

## Dividends

XPO does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-12.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-29: XPO reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 12.4% to $2,373 million, net income was $181 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $433 million. Diluted earnings per share were $1.53 and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.70. XPO repurchased $150 million of common stock and repaid $100 million of term loans in the quarter.
- 2026-10-29: XPO said that it used cash on hand to repay $75 million of its 2026 Term Loan B Facility in October 2026, so it repaid $275 million of term loans in 2026 to that date.
- 2026-07-27: XPO appointed Michael Kneeland to its board of directors.
- 2026-05-29: XPO refinanced its term loans. A new Term Loan A Facility of $500 million and a new Term Loan B tranche of $385 million due February 1, 2031 repaid all $885 million of the prior Term Loan B Facility.
- 2026-05-20: Wendy Cassity told XPO that she will resign as chief legal officer and corporate secretary on or about June 18, 2026, for personal reasons.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119828/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-04 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | xpo-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000092/xpo-20260930.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119829/tm2628363d2_8k.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119828/ |
| 2026-09-03 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926105055/tm2624375d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | xpo-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000074/xpo-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926088440/tm2616097d4_8k.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926088438/ |
| 2026-07-27 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926086807/tm2616097d3_8k.htm |
| 2026-06-03 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926070109/tm2616097d2_8k.htm |
| 2026-06-01 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926068522/tm2616097d1_8k.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1166003): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001166003&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Freight demand is cyclical. A weaker economy would lower tonnage and make price increases harder. In February 2026, LTL weight per shipment was 2.8% lower than a year before.
- Medium: Debt is significant. Total debt principal was $3,207 million at September 30, 2026, against cash of $260 million, and XPO expects interest expense of $205 million to $215 million in 2026.
- Medium: Costs can rise. Higher fuel costs and wage inflation partly offset the gains in North American LTL in Q3 2026.
- Medium: The European business earns little. European Transportation had operating income of $12 million on revenue of $900 million in Q3 2026.
- Low: Old claims can return. In Q3 2025 XPO recorded a charge of $35 million for environmental and product liability claims that involve a former subsidiary of Con-way.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/XPO/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/XPO/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/XPO.json

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