Sixteen picks reported, and guidance cuts decided most of the failed tests
Sixteen picks reported third-quarter results from October 20 to October 21, and eight of them passed the test the site had set. Most of the eight failures came from a lower outlook or one weak line, while the defense companies and Wyndham raised theirs. 130 picks report from October 22 to October 31.
Half of the reports passed
Sixteen picks reported in the first two days of the week, and each had a checkpoint for its third-quarter results. Eight passed: NOC, RTX, ALLY, KEY, SAP, NEE, WFRD and WH. Eight failed: EFX, SYF, META, DHR, MCO, ROL, LVS and ELS.
Most of the failures were not about the quarter itself. Equifax met its revenue and EPS guidance, Danaher's core revenue grew 3.0%, at the top of its guide, and Equity LifeStyle's normalized FFO of $0.79 per share was the middle of its range. All three then lowered part of their outlook: Equifax its 2026 revenue because of a weaker US mortgage market, Danaher its 2026 core growth to about 2.5% from 3% to 4%, and ELS its full-year RV and marina rent growth to 1.2% from 1.6%.
Companies: NOC, RTX, ALLY, KEY, SAP, NEE, WFRD, WH, EFX, SYF, META, DHR, MCO, ROL, LVS, ELS
One weak line was enough for the others
Las Vegas Sands shows the pattern. Macao recovered, with adjusted property EBITDA of $529 million against $430 million in the second quarter, but Marina Bay Sands fell to $590 million, far from the $700 million the test asked for. Moody's ratings revenue fell 1% against a record third quarter of 2025, while its analytics ARR grew 8%. Rollins' organic growth slowed to 4.4%, against about 6% expected, and its operating margin fell to 20.5% from 21.9%.
Meta is the largest case. Revenue grew 26%, but costs without the legal charge grew about 36%, and free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion, against $784 million in the second quarter. Meta also raised the low end of its 2026 capital spending guide to $135 billion.
Defense, hotels and oil services raised their outlooks
Northrop Grumman raised its 2026 segment operating income and EPS guidance, with a segment margin of 12.1% and no new large charge. RTX grew organic sales 12%, its defense backlog rose to $164 billion, and it raised its 2026 free cash flow outlook to $9.0 billion to $9.2 billion. Wyndham's U.S. RevPAR rose 6%, and it raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $4.84 to $4.92. Weatherford raised its free cash flow guidance again after an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.2%.
SAP is the software company in the group, and its report did not show damage from AI tools. Cloud revenue grew 25% and the current cloud backlog 26%, both at constant currency, and SAP moved its 2026 cloud outlook to the upper end of its range.
The market moved before all the reports were out. From the October 16 close to the October 21 close, WFRD rose 12.2%, EFX 8.9% after its guidance cut, and KEY 5.2%. META, LVS and ROL reported after the close on October 21, so these closes do not show their reports yet.
130 picks report by October 31
From October 22 to October 31, 130 of the 309 picks report, and 12 of those dates are still estimates. October 29 is the busiest day, with 36 picks, and October 28 has 33.
Seventeen report on October 22, among them PG, LMT, RELX, HBAN and BX. The large AI spenders follow: MSFT and GOOGL on October 28 and AMZN on October 29, with NOW on October 28 and CTSH and GIB.A on October 29 for the software and IT services side. The REITs AMT, BXP, EXR and VTR report on October 27, and the utilities AEP on October 28 and D and EXC on October 30. Boeing reports on October 27 and the defense companies HII, LHX and GD on October 29 and October 30.
Companies: PG, LMT, RELX, HBAN, BX, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NOW, CTSH, GIB.A, AMT, BXP, EXR, VTR, AEP, D, EXC, BA, HII, LHX, GD