Stock picks
Picks is a personal list of stocks that trade below their estimated worth, each with research and a dated history of every change: information, not advice.
309 stocks · Updated
Latest note ·
The list grows to 309 picks, and interest rates now link the most
The list grew from 44 active picks to 309 this week, and it now holds companies with a narrow moat or no moat next to the wide-moat ones. Interest rates, not AI, now link the most picks, and the AI estimates often see a narrower moat than the analysts. Banks, TSMC and UnitedHealth reported this week, and 144 picks report from October 20 to October 30.
Read the note →- ALLYQ3 2026 earnings: auto credit and margin
- EFXQ3 2026 earnings: mortgage and Workforce Solutions
- ELSQ3 2026 earnings: RV rent and FFO
- KEYQ3 2026 earnings: margin on track to 3.00%
- NOCQ3 2026 results: margins and program charges
- RTXQ3 2026 results: defense orders and GTF
- SYFQ3 2026 earnings: credit and loan growth
- DHRQ3 2026 results: core growth and bioprocessing
Valuation map
Not on the map (no analyst rating): SUGR
Higher is cheaper vs. fair value; further right is more loved by analysts. Bubble color shows the moat and size the fair-value uncertainty (the key is under More filters). Tap or hover a bubble for details.
How to read this chart
Discount = 1 minus price divided by fair value. A stock below the 0% line has a price above its fair value. The analyst axis is the average analyst rating in LSEG's data, from 1 (strong buy) to 5 (strong sell), shown as words: Strong buy below 1.5, Buy from 1.5, Hold from 2.5, Sell from 3.5 and Strong sell from 4.5. The vertical lines mark where one word ends and the next begins. The axis is stretched where ratings are close together and squeezed where they are far apart, so the bands are not drawn to scale. A bright, thick-ringed bubble links to a full write-up — tap or click it to select it, then tap or click it again (or its "Open" link) to open the write-up. A faded, thin-ringed bubble does not link anywhere yet. Under More filters, tap or click a chip to show or hide that group (moat, uncertainty, or whether a write-up exists). Use the As of menu to see the map on an earlier date. Fair values are the analysts' unless the tooltip names another source (management, the analysts' mean target in LSEG, or an AI estimate); a pick with no moat or uncertainty rating gets a neutral color or size, and the moat and uncertainty chips never hide it. A pick with no fair value appears in a separate strip below the chart, positioned by its LSEG rating only. A pick with no LSEG rating cannot be placed on the map, so it is listed under the chart instead. A dimmed bubble is a company whose gap to fair value will probably not close (a structural discount), so its height overstates the opportunity; the switch above the map hides these companies on the map and in the table. A starred or owned pick gets a gold ring; a passed pick fades until its research or ratings change.
Earnings calendar
All picks
309 stocks
Star , Own or Pass a company to sort it.
| Ticker | Price | Fair value | Discount▼ | Moat | Uncertainty | LSEG | Next earnings | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TME | $8.63 | $24.00 | 64.0% | Narrow | High | 2.39 | Nov 17 | |
| LULU | $97.10 | $255.00 | 61.9% | Narrow | High | 3.06 | Dec 3(est.) | |
| FLUT | $75.60 | $187.00 | 59.6% | Narrow | High | 1.97 | Nov 5(est.) | |
| GIL | CA$57.85 | CA$134.00 | 56.8% | Narrow | Medium | 2.20 | Oct 30(est.) | |
| FISV | $47.55 | $106.00 | 55.1% | Narrow | High | 2.85 | Nov 6(est.) | |
| FIS | $36.01 | $77.00 | 53.2% | Narrow | Medium | 2.39 | Nov 4(est.) | |
| CPB | $19.87 | $41.50 | 52.1% | Wide | Medium | 3.38 | Dec 8(est.) | |
| DKNG | $18.90 | $39.00 | 51.5% | Narrow | High | 1.98 | Nov 6(est.) |
Recent updates
- SCHWCharles SchwabNext earnings date moved to 2027-01-15; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; the balance sheet was rewritten; checkpoint passed: Q3 2026 results and fall business update: margin, new assets, client cash; checkpoint moved to Jan 15, 2027: Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook; recent events were updated.
- ABGAsbury AutomotiveThis company was added.
- ADBEAdobeThis company was added.
- AMCRAmcorThis company was added.
- ANAutoNationThis company was added.
What these numbers mean
Analysts set the fair value, moat, and uncertainty ratings, unless a value names another source (management, the analysts' mean target in LSEG, or an AI estimate). I do not set these ratings. Read the disclaimer for more information.
Some stocks have no fair value from any source yet. Those show only their price and LSEG rating.
Fair value & discountAnalysts, unless another source is named
Analysts build a cash flow model for each company. This model gives an estimate of the true value of the company. The estimate does not depend on the current stock price. Discount = 1 minus price divided by fair value. A positive discount means the price is below the fair value. A negative discount means the price is above the fair value.
Economic moatAnalysts, unless another source is named
This rating shows how long a company can keep its advantage over other companies. A Wide moat means the advantage can last about 20 years or more. A Narrow moat means the advantage can last about 10 years or more. A None moat means the company has no lasting advantage. The analysts look at five things to set this rating: network effects, intangible assets, cost advantages, switching costs, and efficient scale.
Fair-value uncertaintyAnalysts, unless another source is named
This rating shows how much the fair value estimate can change. The scale goes from Low to Very High. A company with unpredictable cash flow gets a higher uncertainty rating. Cyclical revenue, high debt, and revenue from few customers can cause this. A large discount on a High or Very High uncertainty stock is a weak signal, because the fair value behind it is a rougher guess. A large discount on a Low uncertainty stock is a stronger signal.
Other sourcesManagement, LSEG, AI estimate
The analysts do not cover every company. For such a company, a value can come from another source, and the page always names it next to the value. Management means the company's own published value per share, such as Brookfield's plan value. Analysts' mean target (LSEG) means the average of the analysts' price targets in LSEG's data. AI estimate means an AI research agent worked out the value from the company's filings. The company page shows its method, inputs and date under Valuation. An AI estimate is not an analyst's value. A company with no source shows only its price and LSEG rating.
LSEG ratingLSEG (formerly Refinitiv / Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S)
Stock market analysts each give a recommendation for a stock. LSEG averages these recommendations on a scale from 1 to 5. A rating of 1 means Strong Buy. A rating of 5 means Strong Sell. A lower number means more analysts recommend the stock. The valuation map shows the rating as words: Strong buy below 1.5, Buy from 1.5, Hold from 2.5, Sell from 3.5 and Strong sell from 4.5. The map shows this axis in reverse, so the more popular stocks sit on the right.
Next earningsCompany filings & press releases
The date of each company's next scheduled quarterly earnings report. When the company has not yet announced a specific date, this is an estimate: the last reported earnings date plus 3 months. Estimated dates are marked '(est.)' in the table and 'estimated' on a stock's page.
No longer picks
These companies left the list. Their pages and history stay, and a company can come back if its price falls.
CEGConstellation EnergyNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is at the analysts' value and above the AI estimate, and the Crane restart may slip to 2031.
COSTCostco WholesaleNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is above both the analysts' value and the AI estimate, so there is no margin of safety.
DNNDenison MinesNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is far above the AI estimate, it has no moat, and it produces nothing before mid-2028.
MDAMDA SpaceNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is above the AI estimate, it has no moat, and its free cash flow is negative.
OUSTOusterNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is far above the AI estimate, it has no moat, and it still loses money.
QCOMQualcommNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is above both the analysts' value and the AI estimate, and the thesis needs AI chip revenue that has not started yet.
VNOMViper EnergyNo longer a pick since October 11, 2026
The price is at the analysts' value and the AI estimate, and Viper does not control where its wells get drilled.