HUMHealth insurance: Medicare Advantage and health care services
Humana
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $438.06
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 6 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $53B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 42.7
- Price of Nov 11, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $10.25
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $163.11 – $456.50
- To Nov 10, 2026
- Beta
- 0.66
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.3M
- 3 months, to Nov 10, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market expects Humana's earnings to recover by 2028 after the fall in its Star Ratings, and only higher Medicare Advantage margins with stable rates and audits can support this view.
- Gap
- Can close. The investor update on December 10, 2026, the 2027 guidance and the 2028 payment rates show whether margins return to the 2028 target.
Company guidance: 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $9.50, GAAP EPS of at least $15.09 and revenue of at least $160 billion (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Humana Inc. (Humana) is a health insurance and health care company. Most of its revenue comes from Medicare Advantage plans, which the U.S. government pays Humana to run for people aged 65 and older and for some people with disabilities. At September 30, 2026, it had 6,456,900 individual Medicare Advantage members, 728,300 group Medicare Advantage members, 4,027,500 members in stand-alone prescription drug plans (PDP) and 1,614,100 members in state-based contracts such as Medicaid.
The Insurance segment holds these plans. The CenterWell segment runs senior primary care centers with about 638,000 patients, a pharmacy business and home health services. Revenue was $41,155 million in Q3 2026, and Humana expects at least $160 billion for 2026.
The shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The head office is in Louisville, Kentucky. Jim Rechtin is President and Chief Executive Officer.
Thesis
Humana's earnings fell because its Medicare Advantage plans got lower Star Ratings for the 2026 bonus year, which cut its quality bonus payments. Adjusted EPS was $17.14 in 2025, and Humana expects at least $9.50 in 2026. The share price rose strongly in 2026, so the market already expects a large recovery.
Humana plans to return individual Medicare Advantage to a pre-tax margin of at least 3% in 2028, and its Star Ratings for the 2028 bonus year are above its Top Quartile goal. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. The 2027 plan bids must raise margins while the members that joined in 2026 stay.
Medical cost trends must stay in line with the plan of a high single-digit increase. And government payment rates, Star Ratings rules and risk adjustment audits must not take back the gains. The investor update on December 10, 2026 and the 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, are the next tests.
Checkpoints
- Nov 6, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: benefit ratioAn Insurance segment benefit ratio near 94% or lower and no cut to the 2026 guidance pass; a higher ratio fails.Outcome: The Insurance segment benefit ratio was 93.7%, and Humana raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $9.50.
- Dec 10, 2026PendingInvestor update: the path to 2028A clear plan for a pre-tax margin of at least 3% in individual Medicare Advantage in 2028 passes; a later target fails.
- Feb 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and the 2027 guidance2026 adjusted EPS of at least $9.50 and 2027 guidance for higher EPS pass; 2027 guidance below 2026 fails.
Recent events
- November 9, 2026Humana started cash tender offers to buy back up to $1.5 billion of eight series of its senior notes, which mature from 2027 to 2032.
- November 6, 2026Humana reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 26% to $41,155 million, and the Insurance segment benefit ratio was 93.7%. GAAP EPS was $1.33, and the adjusted loss was $0.70 per share, better than the company's plan of a loss of about $1.00. Humana raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $9.50, from at least $9.00.
- October 13, 2026Humana agreed a new joint venture with HPS Investment Partners, a part of BlackRock, for nearly 150 CenterWell Senior Primary Care clinics. It replaces the joint ventures with Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe and has no put option for the partner. The transaction closed in October 2026.
Show 6 older eventsHide older events
- October 9, 2026Humana said that its 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings, which set the bonus payments for 2028, are above its goal of Top Quartile results. It expects part of the gain to be one-time and plans to use it for one-time investments and returns to shareholders.
- July 29, 2026Humana reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $5.73, and adjusted EPS was $7.61. Humana kept its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00. It also won a statewide Illinois Medicaid contract that starts in January 2027.
- May 15, 2026Two trusts sold $1.5 billion of pre-capitalized trust securities for Humana. They give Humana the right to issue up to $1.5 billion of senior notes due 2036 and 2055 when it needs the money.
- April 29, 2026Humana reported Q1 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $9.83, and adjusted EPS was $10.31. It kept its guidance of about 25% growth in individual Medicare Advantage membership for 2026.
- March 5, 2026Humana sold $1.0 billion of 6.625% junior subordinated notes due 2056.
- February 11, 2026Humana reported 2025 results. Adjusted EPS was $17.14, and GAAP EPS was $9.84. It gave 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00 and said that the lower Star Ratings for the 2026 bonus year cause the decline.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 6, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 6, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · hum-20261109
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · hum-20260930
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · hum-20261013
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · hum-20261009
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · hum-20260901
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · hum-20260630
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · hum-20260728
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · hum-20260601
Risks
- The government sets Medicare Advantage payment rates and rules each year, and most of Humana's revenue comes from Medicare. Lower rates or changes to the risk model can reduce margins.
- Star Ratings change each year. Lower Star Ratings for the 2026 bonus year cut 2026 earnings, and Humana expects part of the gain in the 2028 bonus year to be one-time.
- The government plans to use risk adjustment data validation (RADV) audits with extrapolation from payment year 2018, without a fee-for-service adjuster. Humana disputes the rule and says that it can have a material adverse effect.
- Medical and drug costs can rise faster than Humana planned. The Insurance segment benefit ratio was 93.7% in Q3 2026, and Humana expects just above 95.5% in Q4 2026.
- Humana added about 1.2 million individual Medicare Advantage members in 2026. New members can cost more than expected, and members can leave when Humana changes prices or benefits.
- In the new CenterWell joint venture, CenterWell agreed to minimum return protections for BlackRock. If CenterWell does not buy all clinics by the end of 2033, BlackRock can start a sale of the remaining clinics.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $6.9B
- Debt
- $12.5B
- Net debt
- $5.6B
- Credit line
- $5.0B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $5.6B
When the debt is due
Humana funds itself with senior notes, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper and a credit facility. Its insurance companies must hold capital under state rules, which limits the cash that they can pay to the parent company. At September 30, 2026, short-term debt was $949 million and long-term debt was $11,555 million, a total of $12,504 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $6,935 million, but parent company cash and short-term investments were $528 million. The debt to total capitalization ratio was 40.9%, against a limit of 60% in the credit agreement. The $5.0 billion revolving credit facility was fully available, and there was no commercial paper. Humana expects the new CenterWell joint venture to lower the ratio by about 130 basis points in Q4 2026, and it expects to sell its minority interest in Gentiva, valued at about $900 million, in Q4 2026. On November 9, 2026, it offered to buy back up to $1.5 billion of senior notes. At September 30, 2026, there were 120,103,250 shares. The quarterly dividend is $0.885 per share.
As of
Show 4 sourcesHide sources
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000066/hum-20260930.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000064/hum-2026q3xex99x2detailedx.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000064/a3q2026humanaincpostedrema.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000068/pressrelease_20261109.htm
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 0.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $438.06)
- Paid per share
- $3.54 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $3.54 ($0.885 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 36% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- October 30, 2026, $0.885 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.87 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.89 | |
| 2018 | $2.00 | |
| 2019 | $2.20 | |
| 2020 | $2.50 | |
| 2021 | $2.80 | |
| 2022 | $3.152 | |
| 2023 | $3.54 | |
| 2024 | $3.54 | |
| 2025 | $3.54 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 7.2% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 11.9% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Humana
What does Humana do?
Humana Inc. (Humana) is a health insurance and health care company. Most of its revenue comes from Medicare Advantage plans, which the U.S. government pays Humana to run for people aged 65 and older and for some people with disabilities. Its market cap is $53B at the current price of $438.06.
When does Humana report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Humana may report on February 6, 2027. It last reported results on November 6, 2026.
Is Humana stock below its intrinsic value?
Humana stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Humana?
The latest update is from November 9, 2026. Humana started cash tender offers to buy back up to $1.5 billion of eight series of its senior notes, which mature from 2027 to 2032.
What are the main risks for Humana?
The government sets Medicare Advantage payment rates and rules each year, and most of Humana's revenue comes from Medicare. Star Ratings change each year. The government plans to use risk adjustment data validation (RADV) audits with extrapolation from payment year 2018, without a fee-for-service adjuster.
How much debt and cash does Humana have?
At September 30, 2026, Humana had $12.5B of debt and $6.9B of cash.
Does Humana pay a dividend?
Yes. Humana paid $3.54 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 0.8% at the current price of $438.06. The latest ex-dividend date was October 30, 2026.
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