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HEINYBeer and other beverages

Heineken

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$47.14
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value: AI estimate
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 10 ·
History
52-week range
$37.03 – $47.63
To Nov 10, 2026
Beta
0.32
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
122K
3 months, to Nov 10, 2026

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In short

Thesis
The market prices Heineken below the AI estimate for slow beer volumes in Europe and the Americas and higher debt, and steady volume growth with a clear plan from the new Chief Executive Officer can change this.
Gap
Can close. The FY 2026 results on February 10, 2027 and the new Chief Executive Officer's plan show whether volume growth and lower debt continue.

Company guidance: 2026 organic operating profit (beia) growth of 2% to 6% and about €500 million of gross productivity savings (, Q3 2026 trading update)

Price history

About

Heineken N.V. (Heineken) brews and sells beer, cider and other drinks. Its global brands are Heineken, Amstel, Tiger, Birra Moretti and Desperados, and it also sells many local brands and low- and no-alcohol beer. It reports four regions: Africa & Middle East, Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe. In the first nine months of 2026, total volume was 218.9 million hectolitres, and net revenue before exceptional items and amortisation (beia) was €22.9 billion.

On January 30, 2026, it completed the purchase of the beverage and retail businesses of FIFCO in Central America, now HEINEKEN Costa Rica. Heineken Holding N.V. holds 50.005% of the issued shares. The shares trade on Euronext Amsterdam. Its American depositary receipts (ADRs) trade over the counter in the United States, and two ADRs represent one share.

The head office is in Amsterdam. Rafa Oliveira has been Chief Executive Officer since October 1, 2026.

Thesis

The market prices Heineken below the AI estimate because beer volumes in its large markets grew slowly. Total volume fell 1.2% in 2025, and in the first nine months of 2026 volume fell 1.6% in the Americas and 0.1% in Europe. Growth came mainly from Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East, and from premium and low- and no-alcohol beer.

Heineken also has more debt after the purchase of FIFCO's businesses: net debt was 2.6 times EBITDA (beia) at June 30, 2026, above its target of below 2.5 times. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. Volume must keep growing in all four regions, as in Q3 2026, when total volume grew 4.8%.

The productivity program must save about €500 million a year and keep margins rising. And the new Chief Executive Officer, Rafa Oliveira, must show a plan that turns the strong brands into steadier growth. The FY 2026 results on February 10, 2027, when he gives his first view, are the next test.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Heineken is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Heineken's own reports. The values are per American depositary receipt (ADR) in U.S. dollars.

The ADR page of Heineken's investor website says that two ADRs represent one Heineken ordinary share. The company reports in euros. The method is a multiple of diluted EPS before exceptional items and amortisation (beia) for 2027. The 2025 results (February 11, 2026) give diluted EPS (beia) of €4.78 for 2025.

The H1 2026 results (August 5, 2026) give diluted EPS (beia) of €2.29, up 11.6%, net debt of €17,675 million and net debt to EBITDA (beia) of 2.6 times. They expect 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth in 2026, about 2% to 3% more EPS from the FIFCO purchase and the sale of its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and about 2% more EPS from fewer shares. The Q3 2026 trading update (October 28, 2026) confirms this guidance. EPS is after interest, so the estimate makes no further debt adjustment.

It uses an exchange rate of $1.122 per euro, the market rate on November 10, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS for 2027 and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes weak volumes and currencies, with EPS of €5.10, at 13.5 times. It gives €68.85 per share, €34.42 per ADR and $38.62 in U.S. dollars.

The base case assumes EPS of €5.50 at 16.5 times. It gives €90.75 per share, €45.38 per ADR and $50.92. The high case assumes steady volume growth and higher margins, with EPS of €5.85, at 19 times. It gives €111.15 per share, €55.58 per ADR and $62.36.

The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $50.71 per ADR. The value moves with the euro. Intangible assets and cost advantage are the main sources of the advantage.

The Heineken brand and the other global brands, and large brewing and distribution networks in many countries, are hard to copy. But beer volumes in Europe and the Americas grow slowly, and large rivals and local brands compete on price. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of

Show 4 sources

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 28, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 trading update: volume growthVolume growth in all four regions and the 2026 guidance kept pass; a cut fails.Outcome: Total volume grew 4.8% with growth in all four regions, and Heineken confirmed 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth for 2026.
  2. Feb 10, 2027Pending
    FY 2026 results and the new Chief Executive Officer's viewOrganic operating profit growth of 2% to 6% in 2026 and net debt to EBITDA (beia) moving toward 2.5 times pass; a missed guidance fails.
  3. Aug 2027 · est.Pending
    H1 2027 results: volume and marginsVolume growth and a higher operating profit (beia) margin pass; falling volume fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 28, 2026Heineken reported its Q3 2026 trading update. Total volume grew 4.8% organically, with growth in all four regions, and net revenue (beia) grew 4.6% organically to €8,090 million. Volume of the Heineken brand grew 9.7%. Heineken confirmed its 2026 guidance of 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth and agreed to buy a majority stake in the ready-to-drink brand Stëlz.
  • October 1, 2026Rafa Oliveira became Chief Executive Officer. Dolf van den Brink left the position on May 31, 2026.
  • August 5, 2026Heineken reported H1 2026 results. Operating profit (beia) grew 6.7% organically to €2,170 million, and diluted EPS (beia) rose 11.6% to €2.29. Free operating cash flow was €1,381 million. Heineken set an interim dividend of €0.76 per share.
Show 3 older events
  • February 11, 2026Heineken reported 2025 results. Operating profit (beia) grew 4.4% organically to €4,385 million, and diluted EPS (beia) was €4.78. It proposed a dividend of €1.90 per share and planned to cut 5,000 to 6,000 roles over two years.
  • January 30, 2026Heineken completed the purchase of the beverage and retail businesses of FIFCO in Central America, now HEINEKEN Costa Rica.
  • January 12, 2026Heineken said that its Chief Executive Officer, Dolf van den Brink, would step down on May 31, 2026.

Risks

  • Beer volumes in Europe and the Americas grow slowly or fall. In the first nine months of 2026, total volume fell 1.6% in the Americas and 0.1% in Europe, and volume in the USA remained under pressure.
  • Heineken earns much of its profit in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil. Weaker currencies lower profit in euros, and in Nigeria volume and net revenue fell in Q3 2026.
  • Net debt rose to €17,675 million at June 30, 2026 after the FIFCO purchase, and net debt to EBITDA (beia) was 2.6 times, above the target of below 2.5 times. More acquisitions can delay debt reduction.
  • Commodity costs can lower margins. In August 2026, Heineken said that some commodity costs remained under pressure, and it expects variable costs per hectolitre to rise by a low single-digit percentage in 2026.
  • A new Chief Executive Officer started on October 1, 2026. A change of strategy can bring new costs.
  • The ADRs follow the share price in Amsterdam and the euro. A stronger U.S. dollar lowers the value of the ADRs in U.S. dollars.

Balance sheet

Cash
€2.8B
Debt
€20.6B
Net debt
€17.7B
Net debt / EBITDA
2.6×
as the company states it

Cash against debt

Cash€2.8B
Debt€20.6B

debt covered by cashnet debt €17.7B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

Credit ratings

  • Moody's A3 · stable
  • S&P BBB+ · positive

Heineken funds itself with borrowings, commercial paper and cash flow. At June 30, 2026, total borrowings were €20,644 million and cash and cash equivalents were €2,831 million.

As of

Show 3 sources

Dividends

Dividend yield
2.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $47.14)
Paid per share
$1.121 in the last 12 months (2 payments)
Current annual rate
$0.432 ($0.432 × 1 a year)
Latest ex-dividend date
August 10, 2026, $0.432 per share

Dividends per share by year

Heineken dividends per share by year
2016
$0.784
2017
$0.751
2018
$0.571
2019
$0.931
2020
$0.568
2021
$0.436
2022
$0.804
2023
$1.037
2024
$0.931
2025
$1.097

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 14.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 5.2% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 11, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Heineken

What does Heineken do?

Heineken N.V. (Heineken) brews and sells beer, cider and other drinks.

When does Heineken report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on February 10, 2027. It last reported results on August 5, 2026.

Is Heineken stock below its intrinsic value?

Heineken stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Heineken?

The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Heineken reported its Q3 2026 trading update.

What are the main risks for Heineken?

Beer volumes in Europe and the Americas grow slowly or fall. Heineken earns much of its profit in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil. Net debt rose to €17,675 million at June 30, 2026 after the FIFCO purchase, and net debt to EBITDA (beia) was 2.6 times, above the target of below 2.5 times.

How much debt and cash does Heineken have?

At June 30, 2026, Heineken had €20.6B of debt and €2.8B of cash.

Does Heineken pay a dividend?

Yes. Heineken paid $1.121 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 2.4% at the current price of $47.14. The latest ex-dividend date was August 10, 2026.

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