Each pick names dated tests of its thesis: an earnings report, a ruling, a deal closing. This page lists every test with a result, across all picks, newest first. It is information, not advice (see the disclaimer).
Test: Net interest margin at or above the Q2 level of 3.00% and more core net new assets than a year earlier pass; a lower margin or client cash leaving sweep accounts fails.
Outcome: Net interest margin rose to 3.04%, core net new assets rose 38% to a record $190.4 billion, and total sweep cash grew $7.1 billion, although only because of cash tied to client long/short strategies.
Test: Revenue that meets the more than 40% 2026 growth target with stable gross margin passes; a lower growth target or margin pressure from overseas fabs fails.
Outcome: Revenue growth beat the target, which management raised to about 44%, but gross margin fell to 66.4% from 67.7% in Q2 and the Q4 guide is lower again, partly because of overseas fab costs, so the margin was not stable.
Test: A medical care ratio below the year-earlier 89.9% and in line with the full-year guide of about 88.1%, without large favorable reserve changes, and confirmed or raised guidance pass; a ratio above the guide or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: The ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9% and management raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50, but the ratio was above the guide of about 88.1% and $610 million of favorable reserve changes helped the quarter.
Test: The waiting period ends without a second request from regulators passes; a second request, which delays closing into 2027, fails.
Outcome: The waiting period ended at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 13, 2026, without a second request from regulators.
Test: Flat or positive North America volume and core operating margin up year over year pass; another volume drop in snacks and drinks with margin down fails.
Outcome: Snack volume grew 0.5%, but beverage organic volume fell 3%, core operating margin fell 35 basis points, and PepsiCo cut its 2026 EPS growth guidance to 1% to 2%.
Test: A majority of ACV shares tendered by 5:00 p.m. ET passes; another extension because fewer than half of shares are tendered fails or delays the deal.
Outcome: 52.84% of ACV shares were tendered, and Copart extended the offer to October 15 only to wait for the end of the antitrust waiting period.
Test: Clear multi-year custom revenue targets with named program ramps pass; vague targets or a lower fiscal 2028 outlook fail.
Outcome: Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and its fiscal 2029 custom revenue outlook to more than $12 billion.
Test: Closing new long-term notes to redeem the $880 million 2027 notes passes; a failed offering fails.
Outcome: WRF closed $900 million of 6.875% notes due 2035 to redeem the 5.25% notes due 2027, at a higher interest rate.
Test: Sales growth near or above 5% with a lasting gross margin gain passes; slower sales or a margin gain from one-time items only fails.
Outcome: Net sales rose 5.6%, but tariff refunds and a LIFO gain caused all of the 1.82-point gross margin gain, and domestic same-store sales grew only 1.6%.
Test: Plan value above the path set in 2025 with the 2030 target date kept passes; a lower value or a later target date fails.
Outcome: Plan value was about $67 per share, down from $68, and the $140 target date moved from 2030 to 2031.
Test: Closing of both Pizza Hut sales with about $2.3 billion of net proceeds passes; a failed or delayed closing fails.
Outcome: Yum completed the sale on September 1, 2026, after the Yum China part closed on August 7, for $2.7 billion in total plus an earn-out of up to $75 million.
Test: A passed bill that caps liability or speeds victim payments passes; a session end with no bill fails.
Outcome: The Assembly adjourned on September 1 without a vote on SB 492, and PG&E stock fell about 20% on August 31.
Test: Completion at the agreed price with proceeds used for AI infrastructure passes; a failed or repriced placement fails.
Outcome: Alibaba completed the placement of 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 on August 26, 2026.
Test: Closing with the bridge loan in place and no change to capital returns passes; a failed closing fails.
Outcome: Yum China completed the $1.2 billion purchase on August 7, 2026, with a renminbi bridge loan at about 2%.
Test: Recurring revenue growth near 8% and closed sales inside or above the cut $240 to $290 million range pass; lower growth or weaker bookings fail.
Outcome: Recurring revenue grew 8% in constant currency, closed sales reached $305 million, and FY2027 guidance called for 6% to 8% recurring revenue growth.
Test: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged.