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CME Group

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Price
$304.52
Analysts view
Analysts Leaning bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Top pick
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 3 · · estimated
History
P/E (trailing)
25.0
Price of Nov 10, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$12.20
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$218.31 – $329.16
To Nov 9, 2026
Beta
0.18
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
1.9M
3 months, to Nov 9, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market fears that CME Group's record trading volume falls when markets calm down, and steady volume with growing market data revenue through 2027 can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report expected in early February 2027 and the change of chief executive from March 2027 show whether record volume and steady costs hold.

Price history

About

CME Group runs a leading derivatives marketplace with four exchanges: CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. Clients trade futures and options on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products, metals and cryptocurrencies, mainly on the CME Globex platform. CME Group also runs BrokerTec for U.S. Treasury trading, EBS for foreign exchange trading and CME Clearing, a leading central counterparty clearing house.

It owns a share of S&P Dow Jones Indices and an equity interest in FanDuel Prediction Markets. Revenue was a record $6.5 billion in 2025, and clearing and transaction fees gave most of it. Average daily volume was a record 28.1 million contracts in 2025.

Thesis

The market prices CME Group for trading volumes that are at record levels and can fall when markets become calm. Most revenue comes from fees on each contract, so revenue moves with trading activity. Average daily volume was a record 36.2 million contracts in Q1 2026 and 29.4 million in Q3 2026, a record for a third quarter. Investors also watch new competition in futures, cryptocurrency and prediction markets, and the change of chief executive in 2027.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Volume must stay near 2026 levels in 2027, also when markets are calmer. Market data revenue, which grew 20% in Q3 2026, and new products such as U.S. Treasury clearing must keep growing.

Costs must stay under control during the move to Google Cloud. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the next test. Lynne Fitzpatrick becomes chief executive on March 1, 2027 or later, when the 2026 Form 10-K is filed. If volume holds, the gap can close within about a year.

The main reason it may not close is a long period of calm markets, which can lower volume and revenue.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 21, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: volume and revenueRevenue and adjusted EPS above Q3 2025 with strong volume pass; lower revenue or lower volume fail.Outcome: Revenue rose 13% to $1.74 billion and adjusted diluted EPS rose to $3.02 from $2.68, with record third-quarter volume of 29.4 million contracts a day.
  2. Feb 3, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and annual variable dividendRecord 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS, steady volume in Q4 and an annual variable dividend at least as large as the last one pass; falling volume or rising costs fail.
  3. Mar 2027 · est.Pending
    Lynne Fitzpatrick becomes chief executiveA smooth change with no change to the capital return policy passes; a new strategy that lowers returns or raises costs fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 21, 2026CME Group reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 13% to $1.74 billion, a record for a third quarter, and adjusted diluted EPS rose to $3.02 from $2.68. Average daily volume was a third-quarter record of 29.4 million contracts, with growth in all six asset classes. Market data revenue rose 20% to a record $243 million. CME returned nearly $1 billion in the quarter: $465 million in dividends and $524 million in share buybacks.
  • September 9, 2026CME Group said that Jack Tobin, its chief accounting officer, becomes deputy chief financial officer on November 2, 2026 and chief financial officer in March 2027, when Lynne Fitzpatrick becomes chief executive. Matthew Render becomes chief accounting officer.
  • July 22, 2026CME Group reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.99, and the first half of 2026 was the strongest in the company's history for revenue and adjusted EPS. Market data revenue rose 20% to a record $238 million.
Show 3 older events
  • June 17, 2026CME Group said that Terry Duffy, chairman and chief executive, becomes executive chairman until December 31, 2027. Lynne Fitzpatrick, president and chief financial officer, becomes chief executive on the later of March 1, 2027 and the filing date of the 2026 Form 10-K.
  • March 5, 2026All 4,584,000 preferred shares of CME Group converted to Class A common stock.
  • February 4, 2026CME Group reported 2025 results, its fourth year in a row of record revenue and adjusted EPS. Revenue rose 6% to $6.5 billion, adjusted diluted EPS was $11.20 and average daily volume was a record 28.1 million contracts. The company paid dividends of about $3.9 billion in 2025.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 21, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · cme-20260930
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cme-20261021
  • 8-KChange to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled · cme-20260924
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
  • 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · cme-20260811
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · cme-20260630
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cme-20260722
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
  • 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · cme-20260609
  • 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · cme-20260514

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1156375)

Risks

  • Revenue depends on trading volume, and volume is highest when markets are volatile. Volume was a record in 2025 and in Q1 2026. A long period of calm markets or stable interest rates can lower volume, revenue and earnings.
  • The Form 10-Q names more competition from new entrants and from the consolidation of other exchanges. New venues for futures, cryptocurrency and prediction markets can take volume or force lower fees.
  • CME Group is moving its technology to Google Cloud. During the move it pays for both systems, and technology costs rose to $80.9 million in Q3 2026 from $71.4 million. A failure or outage of the trading or clearing systems can harm clients and the company.
  • The chief executive and the chief financial officer change in 2027. A new team can change the strategy, costs or capital returns.
  • Regulators can change the rules for futures, clearing and margin. New rules can raise costs for CME Group or for its clients.

Balance sheet

Cash
$2.3B
Debt
$3.4B
Net debt
$1.1B
Interest cover
26×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$2.3B
Debt$3.4B

debt covered by cashnet debt $1.1B

CME Group has little debt compared with its earnings. Long-term debt was $3.43 billion at September 30, 2026.

Dividends

Dividend yield
3.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $304.52)
Paid per share
$11.30 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$5.20 ($1.30 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
45% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
September 9, 2026, $1.30 per share

Dividends per share by year

CME Group dividends per share by year
2016
$5.65
2017
$6.14
2018
$4.55
2019
$5.50
2020
$5.90
2021
$6.85
2022
$8.50
2023
$9.65
2024
$10.40
2025
$5.00

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about CME Group

What does CME Group do?

CME Group runs a leading derivatives marketplace with four exchanges: CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. Clients trade futures and options on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products, metals and cryptocurrencies, mainly on the CME Globex platform.

When does CME Group report earnings next?

This is an estimate: CME Group may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on October 21, 2026.

Is CME Group stock below its intrinsic value?

CME Group stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at CME Group?

The latest update is from October 21, 2026. CME Group reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for CME Group?

Revenue depends on trading volume, and volume is highest when markets are volatile. The Form 10-Q names more competition from new entrants and from the consolidation of other exchanges. CME Group is moving its technology to Google Cloud.

How much debt and cash does CME Group have?

At September 30, 2026, CME Group had $3.4B of debt and $2.3B of cash.

Does CME Group pay a dividend?

Yes. CME Group paid $11.30 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 3.7% at the current price of $304.52. The latest ex-dividend date was September 9, 2026.

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