AXA

AXA is a French insurance group. It sells property and casualty insurance to people and companies, life and savings products, and health and protection insurance. AXA XL is its unit for large commercial risks and reinsurance. Its main markets are France, the rest of Europe, the United States through AXA XL, and Asia, including Japan and Hong Kong.

Gross written premiums and other revenues were Euro 93.0 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with Euro 48.1 billion from property and casualty and Euro 44.8 billion from life and health. AXA sold its asset manager, AXA Investment Managers, to BNP Paribas on July 1, 2025. Its shares trade on Euronext Paris, and its ADSs trade over the counter in the United States. Each ADS represents one ordinary share.

The market prices AXA as a mature European insurer with slow growth, and below the AI estimate. Investors fear three things. Prices for large commercial risks and reinsurance are falling: in the first nine months of 2026, AXA XL Insurance premiums fell 1% and AXA XL Reinsurance premiums fell 9%. Natural catastrophe losses in Europe were above the normal level in the third quarter of 2026.

Market moves can lower the Solvency II ratio, which fell to 213% at September 30, 2026 from 218% at June 30. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Underlying earnings must reach about Euro 8.6 billion for 2026, with underlying EPS growth at the top of the 6% to 8% range, as AXA expects. The first year of the new plan, Growing Forward, must show underlying EPS growth of 7% to 9% and an underlying return on equity of 15% to 17%.

AXA must keep its total payout of 75% of underlying earnings, with dividends and buybacks. The full-year 2026 results on February 25, 2027 give the next test, and the first-quarter 2027 activity indicators on May 4, 2027 give the one after it. If these checks pass, the gap can close within one to two years. The main reason it may not close is a soft commercial insurance market that lowers growth at AXA XL for several years.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Oct 29, 2026Passed

   Nine-month 2026 activity indicatorsRevenue growth of about 5% and a confirmed 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook or a large fall in the Solvency II ratio fail.Outcome: Revenues rose 5% to Euro 93.0 billion and AXA confirmed its 2026 outlook, although the Solvency II ratio fell 5 points to 213%.
2. Feb 25, 2027Pending

   Full-year 2026 resultsUnderlying earnings near Euro 8.6 billion, underlying EPS growth near 8% and a dividend in line with the 75% payout pass; lower earnings or a smaller payout fail.
3. May 4, 2027Pending

   First-quarter 2027 activity indicators: first months of the new planRevenue growth with stable AXA XL margins and a Solvency II ratio above 200% pass; falling revenue at AXA XL or a lower ratio fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 29, 2026AXA reported activity indicators for the first nine months of 2026. Gross written premiums and other revenues rose 5% on a comparable basis to Euro 93.0 billion. Property and casualty premiums rose 3% and life and health premiums rose 7%. The Solvency II ratio fell 5 points to 213% because of market moves. AXA confirmed that it expects underlying earnings of about Euro 8.6 billion for 2026, with underlying EPS growth and underlying return on equity at the top of the plan ranges.
• September 15, 2026AXA presented its 2027 to 2029 plan, Growing Forward. It targets underlying EPS growth of 7% to 9% a year from 2026 to 2029, an underlying return on equity of 15% to 17%, about Euro 25 billion of cash upstream to the holding company and a total payout ratio of 75% of underlying earnings.
• July 31, 2026AXA reported first-half 2026 results. Underlying earnings rose 4% at constant exchange rates to Euro 4.5 billion, or 9% without AXA Investment Managers, and underlying EPS rose 8% to Euro 2.19. Net income rose to Euro 4.2 billion. Underlying return on equity was 18.3%, and the Solvency II ratio was 218%.

• Prices for large commercial risks and reinsurance are falling. AXA XL Reinsurance premiums fell 9% and AXA XL Insurance pricing fell 1% in the first nine months of 2026. A long soft market can lower growth and margins at AXA XL.
• Natural catastrophes can cause large losses. Losses from storms and other weather events in France, Switzerland and Italy were above the normal level in the third quarter of 2026.
• Interest rates, credit spreads and equity markets change the value of AXA's investments and its Solvency II ratio. Market moves lowered the ratio by 5 points in the third quarter of 2026.
• AXA earns mostly in euros, and the ADS trades in U.S. dollars. A weaker euro lowers the value of each ADS.

AXA is an insurer, so its balance sheet is mostly investments that back insurance and savings contracts. Shareholders' equity was Euro 44.7 billion at June 30, 2026, down Euro 2.5 billion from December 31, 2025. Read more

Dividend yield

5.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $51.01)

Paid per share

$2.716 in the last 12 months (1 payment)

Current annual rate

$2.716 ($2.716 × 1 a year)

Latest ex-dividend date

May 8, 2026, $2.716 per share

Dividends per share by year

Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 9.8% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 8.6% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.