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TKOMYInsurance

Tokio Marine Holdings

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$3.67
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value: AI estimate
Analysts view
Analysts Leaning bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Top pick
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 19 · · estimated
History
52-week range
$2.14 – $3.98
To Nov 9, 2026
Beta
0.09
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
2.1M
3 months, to Nov 9, 2026

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In short

Thesis
Tokio Marine trades close to the AI estimate because investors pay for growth abroad but doubt profit in Japan, and steady buybacks with rising returns can keep it there.
Gap
Slow. The first-half results expected in mid-November 2026 are the next test, but higher returns from selling business-related equities and buybacks show only over several years.

Company guidance: Adjusted net income of JPY950.0 billion and adjusted EPS of JPY514 (before the 15-for-1 split) for fiscal 2026 (, 1Q FY2026 summary report)

Price history

About

Tokio Marine Holdings is one of the three large property and casualty insurance groups in Japan. Its main Japanese company is Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance. It also sells life insurance in Japan and owns specialty insurers in the United States and other countries, such as Philadelphia, Tokio Marine HCC, Delphi Financial and Safety National. International business gave ¥164.3 billion of the ¥261.3 billion of adjusted net income in the three months to June 30, 2026.

The company reports under IFRS, and its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its shares trade in Tokyo, and its ADSs trade over the counter in the United States. The company split each share into 15 shares on October 1, 2026, and each ADS represents one share.

Thesis

The market prices Tokio Marine close to the AI estimate. Investors pay for its growth abroad and for its partnership with Berkshire Hathaway, but they doubt the profit of the Japanese business and the speed of the plan to raise returns. Adjusted net income from Japan fell 15% in the three months to June 30, 2026, while international adjusted net income rose 9%. A Japanese subsidiary still reports to the Financial Services Agency on its business improvement plan.

For the stock to keep pace with the AI estimate, three things must be true. Adjusted net income must reach the forecast of ¥950.0 billion for the year to March 31, 2027. The company must carry out its planned share buybacks of ¥400.0 billion for the year and keep selling business-related equities, which it plans to cut to zero by the end of fiscal 2029. Adjusted ROE must rise from 12.9% in fiscal 2025 toward the Aspiration 2035 target of 17% or more.

The first-half results, expected in mid-November 2026, give the next test. The full-year results in May 2027 give the one after it. If profit in Japan keeps falling or large catastrophe losses come, the stock can fall below the AI estimate.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Tokio Marine Holdings is an AI estimate from November 9, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Tokio Marine's filings and presentations. The method is a multiple of adjusted earnings per share for the year to March 31, 2028.

The summary report for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (August 12, 2026) gives the forecast of adjusted net income of ¥950,000 million and adjusted EPS of ¥514 for the year to March 31, 2027, before the share split. It also gives 1,934,000,000 shares issued and 34,005,955 treasury shares at June 30, 2026, and equity attributable to owners of the parent of ¥8,197,310 million. The company split each share into 15 shares on October 1, 2026, so the estimate divides each per-share figure by 15. The forecast adjusted EPS is ¥34.27 after the split.

The FY2026 IR conference presentation (May 2026) gives the dividend of ¥245 before the split, planned buybacks of ¥400.0 billion and the Aspiration 2035 targets of profit growth of 7% or more a year and adjusted ROE of 17% or more. The estimate assumes that each ADS represents one share after the split. The ADS price of $3.65 and the Tokyo price of ¥569.8 on November 6, 2026 agree with this ratio. The estimate uses an exchange rate of ¥157.95 per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption.

The EPS and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes adjusted EPS of ¥34.50 for the year to March 2028, about flat, at 13 times. Catastrophe losses and weak profit in Japan hold growth back in this case. It gives ¥448.50 per share and $2.84 per ADS.

The base case assumes ¥37.00, growth of about 8% with buybacks, at 16 times. It gives ¥592.00 per share and $3.75 per ADS. The high case assumes ¥39.50, growth of about 15%, at 18 times. It gives ¥711.00 per share and $4.50 per ADS.

The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $3.71 per ADS. The value moves with the yen. Efficient scale and intangible assets are the main sources of the advantage.

Tokio Marine & Nichido is one of three large property and casualty groups in Japan, and its agent network and brand keep customers for many years. Its U.S. specialty insurers earn good margins in niche markets. But Japanese insurance prices are under regulation, the subsidiary is under a business improvement plan, and adjusted ROE was only 12.9% in fiscal 2025. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of

Show 3 sources

Checkpoints

  1. Aug 12, 2026Passed
    First-quarter fiscal 2026 resultsAdjusted net income near a quarter of the ¥950.0 billion forecast and a kept forecast pass; a lower forecast fails.Outcome: Adjusted net income was ¥261.3 billion, 28% of the forecast, and the company kept its full-year forecast, although profit in Japan fell 15%.
  2. Nov 19, 2026 · est.Pending
    First-half fiscal 2026 resultsAdjusted net income on track for ¥950.0 billion, a kept forecast and progress on buybacks pass; a lower forecast or a further fall in Japan fail.
  3. May 2027 · est.Pending
    Full-year fiscal 2026 results and new targetsAdjusted net income of ¥950.0 billion or more with a higher adjusted ROE passes; lower profit or flat returns fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 22, 2026Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance stopped its website for a short time after a critical vulnerability in PHP became public. It started the website again on the same evening. The company found no leak of personal information and no damage to its systems.
  • October 1, 2026Tokio Marine split each common share into 15 shares. It announced the split on August 25, 2026 to lower the minimum investment. Market prices show that the ADSs split in the same ratio, so each ADS still represents one share.
  • September 9, 2026Tokio Marine HCC completed the purchase of Direct Commercial Limited, a UK managing general agent for commercial motor insurance. Tokio Marine agreed to the deal on August 28, 2026 at an enterprise value of £265 million, about ¥57.3 billion.
Show 4 older events
  • August 12, 2026Tokio Marine reported results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. Adjusted net income fell 3.6% to ¥261.3 billion. International adjusted net income rose 9% and Japanese adjusted net income fell 15%. Net income attributable to owners of the parent rose 3.3% to ¥264.3 billion. The company kept its forecast of ¥950.0 billion of adjusted net income for the year to March 31, 2027.
  • May 26, 2026Tokio Marine published Aspiration 2035. It aims for adjusted net income of ¥1,700.0 billion or more and an adjusted ROE of 17% or more by 2035, with profit growth of 7% or more a year.
  • May 20, 2026Tokio Marine reported results for the year ended March 31, 2026. Adjusted net income on the IFRS basis was ¥881.5 billion and adjusted ROE was 12.9%. The annual dividend was ¥218 per share before the split. For the year to March 2027, it forecast adjusted net income of ¥950.0 billion, a dividend of ¥245 per share before the split and share buybacks of ¥400.0 billion.
  • March 23, 2026Tokio Marine announced a strategic partnership with Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire agreed to buy about 2.5% of the shares from Tokio Marine's treasury stock, for ¥287.4 billion. The partnership also includes a quota share reinsurance of part of the group's portfolio and work together on M&A.

Risks

  • Natural catastrophes in Japan and the United States can cause large losses. Profit from Japanese property and casualty insurance fell in the three months to June 30, 2026.
  • A Japanese subsidiary reports to the Financial Services Agency on a business improvement plan. New findings or rules can increase costs or limit sales.
  • The company plans to sell all business-related equities by the end of fiscal 2029. These shares were 24.5% of IFRS net assets in fiscal 2025. A fall in Japanese stock prices lowers their value before the sales.
  • The company buys businesses abroad, such as Direct Commercial in 2026. A large purchase at a high price can lower returns.
  • The ADS price is in U.S. dollars, but the company reports in yen. A weaker yen lowers the value of each ADS.

Balance sheet

Tokio Marine is an insurer, so its balance sheet is mostly investments that back insurance contracts. Total assets were ¥33.68 trillion and equity attributable to owners of the parent was ¥8.20 trillion at June 30, 2026, up from ¥7.96 trillion at March 31, 2026.

As of

Show 2 sources

Dividends

Paid per share
$0.00 in the last 12 months (0 payments)
Latest ex-dividend date
March 28, 2025, $0.0416 per share

Dividends per share by year

Tokio Marine Holdings dividends per share by year
2016
$0.00
2017
$0.00
2018
$0.00
2019
$0.00
2020
$0.00
2021
$0.00
2022
$0.00
2023
$0.00
2024
$0.0357
2025
$0.0416

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Tokio Marine Holdings

What does Tokio Marine Holdings do?

Tokio Marine Holdings is one of the three large property and casualty insurance groups in Japan. Its main Japanese company is Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance.

When does Tokio Marine Holdings report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Tokio Marine Holdings may report on November 19, 2026. It last reported results on August 12, 2026.

Is Tokio Marine Holdings stock below its intrinsic value?

Tokio Marine Holdings stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Tokio Marine Holdings?

The latest update is from October 22, 2026. Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance stopped its website for a short time after a critical vulnerability in PHP became public.

What are the main risks for Tokio Marine Holdings?

Natural catastrophes in Japan and the United States can cause large losses. A Japanese subsidiary reports to the Financial Services Agency on a business improvement plan. The company plans to sell all business-related equities by the end of fiscal 2029.

How much debt and cash does Tokio Marine Holdings have?

Tokio Marine is an insurer, so its balance sheet is mostly investments that back insurance contracts. This is as of June 30, 2026.

Does Tokio Marine Holdings pay a dividend?

Yes. Tokio Marine Holdings paid $0.00 per share in the last 12 months. The latest ex-dividend date was March 28, 2025.

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