MPCOil refining & midstream
Marathon Petroleum
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $389.88
- Analysts view
- Analysts Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 3 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $106B
- Shares of Oct 29, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 7.7
- Price of Nov 10, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $50.47
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $161.93 – $493.98
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.53
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 2.5M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for Marathon Petroleum's record refining margins and MPLX cash, and only margins that stay high through 2027 can earn it.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, and the next quarters show whether refining margins stay high after the record Q3.
Company guidance: Q4 2026 refinery throughput of 3,080 thousand barrels per day and planned turnaround costs of $230 million (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Marathon Petroleum runs the largest refining system in the United States. In Q3 2026, its refineries processed 3.2 million barrels per day at 100% crude capacity utilization. It sells fuels through branded Marathon outlets and other channels, and it makes renewable diesel.
It also controls MPLX, a midstream partnership with pipelines, terminals and gas processing plants, and it owned about 64% of the MPLX common units at September 30, 2026. Its segments are Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. Marathon Petroleum is based in Findlay, Ohio, and its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
Thesis
Marathon Petroleum trades at a premium because investors pay for record refining margins and for the steady cash from its MPLX stake. In Q3 2026, Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA was $34.15 per barrel, against $6.37 a year earlier, because crack spreads rose in all regions. The 10-Q names the U.S.-Iran conflict as one cause of price swings and supply disruptions. MPLX raised its distribution by 12.5%, and MPC expects $3.1 billion a year of distributions from it.
For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Refining margins must stay well above the 2025 level, when the segment earned $6.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year, through 2027. MPC must use the cash for buybacks under its $8.1 billion authorization and for good projects, while its own debt stays low. The sale of the St.
Paul Park and Mandan refineries for $4.2 billion must close at the end of 2026, and MPC must reinvest the money at good returns on the Gulf Coast. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the next test. If crack spreads fall back as supply returns, the premium can shrink quickly, within a few quarters.
Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: refining marginsHigh refining margins, strong cash returns and a higher dividend pass; a fall in margins or lower buybacks fail.Outcome: Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA was $34.15 per barrel, MPC returned $3.3 billion, raised the dividend by 10% and added a $5 billion buyback.
- Feb 3, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results: margins and the refinery saleMargins well above the 2025 level, a closed refinery sale and continued buybacks pass; a sharp fall in margins or a delayed sale fail.
Recent events
- November 3, 2026Marathon Petroleum reported Q3 2026 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $7.4 billion, or $26.59 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $11.7 billion, against $3.2 billion a year earlier. It returned $3.3 billion to shareholders, and its board approved an additional $5 billion share buyback. It agreed on November 2, 2026 to sell its St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries and related midstream assets for $4.2 billion, with $3.45 billion for MPC and $750 million for MPLX. It expects the sale to close at the end of 2026.
- October 29, 2026Marathon Petroleum elected David E. Constable as a director from March 1, 2027.
- October 28, 2026Marathon Petroleum raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.10 per share.
Show 5 older eventsHide older events
- September 15, 2026Marathon Petroleum redeemed all $749 million of its senior notes due December 2026.
- August 4, 2026Marathon Petroleum reported Q2 2026 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $5.1 billion, or $17.73 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $8.5 billion. Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA was $24.84 per barrel. It returned over $2.8 billion to shareholders.
- May 5, 2026Marathon Petroleum reported Q1 2026 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $511 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $2.8 billion.
- April 7, 2026Marathon Petroleum signed a new $5.0 billion five-year revolving credit agreement that matures on April 7, 2031. MPLX signed a new $2.5 billion facility.
- February 3, 2026Marathon Petroleum reported 2025 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $4.0 billion, or $13.22 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $12.0 billion. It returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mpc-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · mpc-20261103
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Other company newsFiled · mpc-20261028
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · mpc-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · mpc-20260804
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · mpc-20260626
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · mpc-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · mpc-20260505
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · mpc-20260429
- 8-KNew material agreement and End of a material agreementFiled · mpc-20260407
Risks
- Refining margins move with crack spreads, which were very high in 2026. If the U.S.-Iran conflict ends or new refining capacity starts, margins can fall to the 2025 level quickly.
- MPLX had $26.608 billion of debt at September 30, 2026. MPC consolidates this debt, and MPLX's cash flow depends on oil and gas volumes in the Permian and Marcellus basins.
- The sale of the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries needs regulatory approvals. A delay or a poor use of the $3.45 billion of proceeds can lower returns.
- Rules on fuels, emissions and renewable fuel credits can raise costs or lower demand for gasoline and diesel over time.
- Refineries can have fires, outages and long turnarounds. Planned turnaround costs were $1.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $13.6B
- Debt
- $33.0B
- Net debt
- $19.4B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.7×
- EBITDA $26.4B, last 12 months
- Credit line
- $5.0B
- undrawn, to April 2031
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $19.4B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
Marathon Petroleum consolidates MPLX, so most of the reported debt is MPLX debt. At September 30, 2026, total consolidated debt was $33.022 billion, of which $6.414 billion was MPC debt and $26.608 billion was MPLX debt. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $13.6 billion, including $1.3 billion at MPLX, so MPC alone had more cash than debt. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.4 billion for the four quarters to September 30, 2026 (a sum of the quarterly releases). MPC had no borrowings under its $5 billion revolving credit facility, which matures in April 2031. On September 15, 2026, it redeemed $749 million of notes due December 2026. MPC owned about 647 million MPLX common units with a market value of $36.46 billion at September 30, 2026, and it expects about $784 million of MPLX distributions for the quarter paid in November 2026.
As of
Show 4 sourcesHide sources
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000069/mpcq32026earningsrelease.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000071/mpc-20260930.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000003/mpcq42025earningsrelease.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000029/mpc-20260407.htm
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 1.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $389.88)
- Paid per share
- $4.00 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $4.00 ($1.00 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 28% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 19, 2026, $1.00 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $1.36 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.52 | |
| 2018 | $1.84 | |
| 2019 | $2.12 | |
| 2020 | $2.32 | |
| 2021 | $2.32 | |
| 2022 | $2.49 | |
| 2023 | $3.075 | |
| 2024 | $3.385 | |
| 2025 | $3.73 |
Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 11.5% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 11.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Marathon Petroleum
What does Marathon Petroleum do?
Marathon Petroleum runs the largest refining system in the United States. In Q3 2026, its refineries processed 3.2 million barrels per day at 100% crude capacity utilization. Its market cap is $106B at the current price of $389.88.
When does Marathon Petroleum report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Marathon Petroleum may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on November 3, 2026.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock below its intrinsic value?
Marathon Petroleum stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Marathon Petroleum?
The latest update is from November 3, 2026. Marathon Petroleum reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Marathon Petroleum?
Refining margins move with crack spreads, which were very high in 2026. MPLX had $26.608 billion of debt at September 30, 2026. The sale of the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries needs regulatory approvals.
How much debt and cash does Marathon Petroleum have?
At September 30, 2026, Marathon Petroleum had $33.0B of debt and $13.6B of cash.
Does Marathon Petroleum pay a dividend?
Yes. Marathon Petroleum paid $4.00 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 1.0% at the current price of $389.88. The latest ex-dividend date was August 19, 2026.
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