PSXRefining & midstream
Phillips 66
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $253.02
- Analysts view
- Analysts Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 3 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $99B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.1
- Price of Nov 10, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $31.18
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $127.16 – $299.39
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.69
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 2.9M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for Phillips 66's record refining profit and steady Midstream cash, and only high margins through 2027 with debt on target can earn it.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, and the next quarters show whether refining margins stay high after the record Q3.
Company guidance: Total debt reduced to $17 billion by the end of 2027; 2027 capital spending above the earlier target of about $2.5 billion (, Q3 2026 quarterly report (10-Q))
Price history
About
Phillips 66 is a U.S. downstream energy company. It has five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. Midstream gathers and processes natural gas and moves, fractionates and exports natural gas liquids, including through the Freeport LPG export dock. Chemicals is its 50% interest in Chevron Phillips Chemical.
On October 1, 2025, it bought the other 50% of WRB Refining and became the full owner of the Wood River and Borger refineries. It stopped fuel production at its Los Angeles Refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025. Crude capacity utilization was 98% in Q3 2026.
Thesis
Phillips 66 trades at a premium because investors pay for record refining profit and steady Midstream cash. The realized refining margin rose to $38.00 per barrel in Q3 2026 from $24.08 in Q2, and adjusted EPS was $14.08. The company used the cash to cut total debt by $2.0 billion and buy back $2.3 billion of stock in the quarter. The price assumes that refining margins stay well above their past average for a long time.
For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Refining margins must stay high through 2027, because refining supplied most of the Q3 profit. Midstream adjusted EBITDA must stay near $1 billion each quarter and grow with the Coastal Bend expansion and, from 2029, the Western Gateway Pipeline. The company must reach its target of $17 billion of total debt by the end of 2027 while it keeps its buybacks.
The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the next test. If refining margins fall back to the level of 2025, when the Refining segment lost money in the first nine months, the premium can shrink within a year.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026PassedQ3 2026 resultsHigh refining utilization, a higher realized margin and lower debt pass; weak margins or higher debt fail.Outcome: The realized refining margin rose to $38.00 per barrel, adjusted EPS was $14.08 and total debt fell by $2.0 billion to $18.5 billion.
- Feb 3, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 capital budgetRefining margins near Q3 levels, steady Midstream EBITDA and debt that moves toward $17 billion pass; a sharp fall in margins or a large rise in capital spending fail.
- 2027 · est.PendingChevron Phillips Chemical project start-upsFull operations at the Golden Triangle Polymers and Ras Laffan Polymers projects in 2027 pass; a delay or higher costs fail.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026Phillips 66 reported Q3 2026 results. Earnings and adjusted earnings were $5.6 billion, or $14.08 per share. Refining adjusted pre-tax income was $6.06 billion, at a realized margin of $38.00 per barrel and 98% crude capacity utilization. The company returned $2.8 billion to shareholders and cut total debt by $2.0 billion to $18.5 billion. It made a final investment decision on the Western Gateway Pipeline, with service expected in 2029. In October 2026, the board raised the quarterly dividend by $0.06 to $1.33 per share.
- September 29, 2026Richard Harbison, Executive Vice President, Refining, told the company that he will retire on December 31, 2026.
- August 5, 2026Phillips 66 reported Q2 2026 results. Earnings were $3.8 billion, and adjusted EPS was $9.41. The realized refining margin was $24.08 per barrel. In July 2026, the board added $10 billion to the share buyback authorization.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- July 10, 2026Phillips 66 filed its opening brief in its appeal against the $833 million judgment in the Propel Fuels trade secrets case. Post-judgment interest of 10% a year accrues while the appeal continues.
- October 1, 2025Phillips 66 completed the purchase of the remaining 50% interest in WRB Refining, which owns the Wood River and Borger refineries.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · psx-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · psx-20261028
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · psx-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · psx-20260805
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · psx-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · psx-20260429
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · psx-20260406
Risks
- Refining margins move with the cycle. The Refining segment had an adjusted pre-tax loss of $115 million in the first nine months of 2025 and adjusted pre-tax income of $9.35 billion in the first nine months of 2026. A fall in crack spreads can cut earnings quickly.
- A California court entered a judgment of $833 million against Phillips 66 Company in the Propel Fuels case in August 2025, and interest of 10% a year accrues. The company appealed, but it can lose more than it has recorded.
- Capital spending will rise. The company expects 2027 capital spending and investments above its earlier target of about $2.5 billion after the Western Gateway decision. Cost overruns or delays can lower returns and slow debt reduction.
- Chemicals and Renewable Fuels results are volatile. Polyethylene margins fell in Q3 2026, and renewable fuels margins depend on government credits and rules.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $5.8B
- Debt
- $18.5B
- Net debt
- $12.7B
- Credit line
- $6.4B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $12.7B
At September 30, 2026, Phillips 66 had debt of $18.53 billion and cash of $5.85 billion, so net debt was $12.68 billion, down from $16.47 billion at June 30, 2026. The debt-to-capital ratio was 34%, and the net debt-to-capital ratio was 26%. The company had $6.4 billion of committed capacity under its credit facilities. It targets total debt of $17 billion by the end of 2027. In the first nine months of 2026, cash from operations was $12.3 billion, and the company returned $4.4 billion through dividends and buybacks. In July 2026, the board added $10 billion to the buyback authorization.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 2.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $253.02)
- Paid per share
- $5.01 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $5.08 ($1.27 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 44% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 18, 2026, $1.27 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $2.45 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.73 | |
| 2018 | $3.10 | |
| 2019 | $3.50 | |
| 2020 | $3.60 | |
| 2021 | $3.62 | |
| 2022 | $3.83 | |
| 2023 | $4.20 | |
| 2024 | $4.50 | |
| 2025 | $4.75 |
Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 6.8% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 7.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Phillips 66
What does Phillips 66 do?
Phillips 66 is a U.S. downstream energy company. It has five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. Its market cap is $99B at the current price of $253.02.
When does Phillips 66 report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Phillips 66 may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Phillips 66 stock below its intrinsic value?
Phillips 66 stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Phillips 66?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Phillips 66 reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Phillips 66?
Refining margins move with the cycle. A California court entered a judgment of $833 million against Phillips 66 Company in the Propel Fuels case in August 2025, and interest of 10% a year accrues. Capital spending will rise.
How much debt and cash does Phillips 66 have?
At September 30, 2026, Phillips 66 had $18.5B of debt and $5.8B of cash.
Does Phillips 66 pay a dividend?
Yes. Phillips 66 paid $5.01 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 2.0% at the current price of $253.02. The latest ex-dividend date was August 18, 2026.
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