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MSTRBitcoin treasury company and enterprise software

Strategy

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$121.07
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value: AI estimate
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
History
EPS (trailing)
-$49.21
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$81.81 – $239.24
To Nov 10, 2026
Beta
3.61
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
23M
3 months, to Nov 10, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Strategy's shares follow the bitcoin price with leverage, and the AI estimate, the value of its bitcoins less its debt and preferred stock, moves with that price every day.
Gap
Can close. The value moves with the bitcoin price every day, so a change in the bitcoin price can open or close the gap quickly.

Company guidance: Stretch preferred dividend rate kept at 12.00%; USD Reserve and USD Cash cover about 3.4 years of dividends and interest (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

About

Strategy Inc (Strategy), formerly MicroStrategy, calls itself a Bitcoin Treasury Company. It raises money from shares, preferred stock and convertible notes and uses it to buy bitcoin. At November 8, 2026, it held 850,364 bitcoins, which it bought for $64.16 billion, or about $75,456 per bitcoin.

Its value comes mainly from these bitcoins. Strategy has four series of perpetual preferred stock in U.S. dollars, called Strife, Stretch, Strike and Stride, and one in euros, and it calls them Digital Credit. It also sells enterprise analytics software, with revenue of $125.4 million in Q3 2026.

Its class A common stock (MSTR) and the U.S. preferred series trade on Nasdaq. The head office is in Tysons Corner, Virginia. Michael Saylor is Founder and Executive Chairman, and Phong Le is President and Chief Executive Officer.

Thesis

The AI estimate for Strategy is the value of its bitcoins, USD Reserve and USD Cash less its debt and preferred stock, so it moves with the bitcoin price every day. The price of the shares also follows the price of bitcoin, with leverage, because its debt and preferred stock come before the common shares. Investors also pay for its ability to sell new shares and preferred stock and buy more bitcoin per share. In 2026, this became harder.

The bitcoin price fell, the bitcoins per share fell by 3.7% in the year to October 25, 2026, and Strategy spent $2.04 billion to buy back Stretch preferred stock that traded under its stated amount of $100. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. The bitcoin price must rise, because it is the main input of the value. Strategy must raise capital that adds bitcoin per share, and not only fund dividends.

And its USD Reserve, which covered about 3.4 years of dividends and interest in October 2026, must stay large enough that it does not need to sell bitcoin at low prices. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early 2027, and the weekly holdings updates are the next tests. Each change of $10,000 in the bitcoin price changes the AI estimate by about $20 per share.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Strategy is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Strategy's filings. The method is net asset value per class A and class B share: the value of the bitcoins plus the USD Reserve and USD Cash, less the convertible notes and other debt at their principal and the preferred stock at its stated amount.

The value moves with the bitcoin price, which is the main assumption. The 8-K of November 9, 2026 gives 850,364 bitcoins, a USD Reserve of $4.77 billion and USD Cash of $146.2 million at November 8, 2026. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives convertible notes of $6.71 billion and other secured debt of $40 million, preferred stock of $1.28 billion of Strife, $1.40 billion of Strike, $1.40 billion of Stride and EUR 775 million of the euro series, and 402,714,357 class A and 19,640,250 class B shares at October 25, 2026. It also gives about $8.39 billion of Stretch at October 25, 2026, and the 8-Ks of November 2 and 9, 2026 give Stretch buybacks of about $398 million at the stated amount and 3,229,900 new class A shares.

So the estimate uses $7.99 billion of Stretch, total preferred stock of about $12.97 billion, debt of about $6.75 billion and 425.6 million shares. The estimate treats the notes as debt, because the conversion prices, from $149.77, are above the share price. The exchange rate of $1.15 per euro is an assumption, and the software business gets no value. The bitcoin prices are assumptions.

The low case assumes $50,000 per bitcoin. It gives $65.11 per share. The base case assumes $75,000 per bitcoin, near the price in early November 2026. It gives $115.06 per share.

The high case assumes $105,000 per bitcoin. It gives $175.00 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $117.56 per share.

Each change of $10,000 in the bitcoin price changes the value by about $20 per share. The estimate finds no lasting advantage. Strategy is the largest company holder of bitcoin and has strong access to capital markets. But bitcoin is available to all buyers, and other companies and funds also hold it.

So the estimate does not expect the advantage to last 10 years.

As of

Show 3 sources

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 29, 2026Failed
    Q3 2026 results: bitcoins per shareGrowth of bitcoins per share in 2026 passes; a fall fails.Outcome: The bitcoins per share fell by 3.7% in the year to October 25, 2026, although the holdings grew by 26%.
  2. Jan 29, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and the USD ReserveA USD Reserve that covers two years or more of dividends and interest, with no forced bitcoin sales, passes; a large fall fails.
  3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending
    Stretch preferred stock near its stated amountStretch preferred stock that trades near $100 with fewer buybacks passes; a price well below $100 fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 9, 2026Strategy reported that it held 850,364 bitcoins at November 8, 2026, at an average purchase price of $75,456. In the week to November 8, it sold 2,051,348 class A shares for net proceeds of $283.8 million, bought 1,036 bitcoins and bought back Stretch preferred stock for $188.3 million. The USD Reserve was $4.77 billion.
  • October 29, 2026Strategy reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $19.53 billion, or $44.75 per diluted share, mainly from a gain of $20.91 billion on its bitcoins. Revenue was $125.4 million. The Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Kang, steps down on November 5, 2026, and Reza Virasteh becomes Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2027.
  • October 28, 2026Shareholders approved daily dividends on the four U.S. dollar preferred series. Stretch pays daily dividends from November 1, 2026, and the other three from January 1, 2027.
Show 3 older events
  • July 30, 2026Strategy reported Q2 2026 results, with a net loss of $8.22 billion, or $24.45 per share, because the bitcoin price fell. It reduced its convertible debt by 18% to $6.7 billion, set up a $1.0 billion repurchase program for its class A shares and started to sell some bitcoin to fund dividends and buybacks.
  • May 5, 2026Strategy reported Q1 2026 results, with a net loss of $12.54 billion, or $38.25 per share. It held 818,334 bitcoins at May 3, 2026, after it raised $5.58 billion with Stretch preferred stock in the year.
  • February 5, 2026Strategy reported 2025 results. The Q4 2025 net loss was $12.4 billion, because the bitcoin price fell. It held 713,502 bitcoins at February 1, 2026, and raised $25.3 billion of capital in 2025.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · mstr-20261109
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mstr-20260930
  • 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · mstr-20261102
  • 8-KChange to shareholder rights or bylaws and Shareholder vote resultsFiled · mstr-20261028
  • 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
  • 8-KOther company newsFiled · mstr-20261028
  • 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · mstr-20261026
  • 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · mstr-20261019
  • 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · mstr-20261015
  • 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · mstr-20261012

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1050446)

Risks

  • Almost all of the value is bitcoin. A fall in the bitcoin price lowers the value of the common shares by more than the fall in bitcoin, because the debt and preferred stock do not fall with it.
  • Strategy pays about $1.5 billion a year of preferred dividends and interest, and the software business does not cover this. Its USD Reserve and USD Cash of $5.07 billion covered about 3.4 years of these payments in October 2026. If it cannot sell new shares or preferred stock, it must use its USD Reserve or sell bitcoin.
  • Strategy sells many new class A shares. If the shares trade near or below the value of the bitcoins per share, new sales can lower the bitcoins per share.
  • Changes in laws, taxes or accounting rules for bitcoin, or a failure at a custodian, can lower the value or limit what Strategy can do.
  • The convertible notes of $6.7 billion become due between 2028 and 2032. If the share price stays below the conversion prices, Strategy must repay them in cash or refinance them.

Balance sheet

Cash
$5.9B
Debt
$6.8B
Net debt
$854M

Cash against debt

Cash$5.9B
Debt$6.8B

debt covered by cashnet debt $854M

Strategy funds its bitcoin purchases with class A shares, perpetual preferred stock and convertible notes. At September 30, 2026, cash was $2.50 billion and short-term investments were $3.40 billion.

As of

Show 3 sources

Dividends

Strategy does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 11, 2026.

Questions about Strategy

What does Strategy do?

Strategy Inc (Strategy), formerly MicroStrategy, calls itself a Bitcoin Treasury Company. It raises money from shares, preferred stock and convertible notes and uses it to buy bitcoin.

When does Strategy report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Strategy may report on January 29, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.

Is Strategy stock below its intrinsic value?

Strategy stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Strategy?

The latest update is from November 9, 2026. Strategy reported that it held 850,364 bitcoins at November 8, 2026, at an average purchase price of $75,456.

What are the main risks for Strategy?

Almost all of the value is bitcoin. Strategy pays about $1.5 billion a year of preferred dividends and interest, and the software business does not cover this. Strategy sells many new class A shares.

How much debt and cash does Strategy have?

At September 30, 2026, Strategy had $6.8B of debt and $5.9B of cash.

Does Strategy pay a dividend?

No. Strategy does not pay a dividend.

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