By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $92.20
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 9 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $61B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.4
- Price of Nov 11, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $5.01
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $55.27 – $95.68
- To Nov 10, 2026
- Beta
- 1.43
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 6.6M
- 3 months, to Nov 10, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for the brand, the premium cabins and the loyalty revenue of Delta, and only high profits through a period of high fuel prices can earn it.
- Gap
- Slow. Only several years of high profits with lower fuel costs and lower debt can earn the premium in a cyclical industry.
Company guidance: Q4 2026 revenue growth of about 20% and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.65; 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.60 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Delta Air Lines flies passengers and cargo in the United States and to more than 300 destinations on six continents, with up to 5,500 daily flights of Delta and Delta Connection. It has about 100,000 employees and served more than 200 million customers in 2025. Its main hubs and markets include Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Salt Lake City, Seattle, Los Angeles, Boston and New York.
Delta also earns revenue from premium cabins, its SkyMiles loyalty program and its co-brand credit cards with American Express, cargo, and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) work for other airlines. In Q3 2026, these other revenue streams gave 61% of total revenue. Delta owns a refinery through its Monroe subsidiary and holds equity stakes in airlines and airline groups such as LATAM, Air France-KLM, Grupo Aeromexico, Hanjin KAL and WestJet. Its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
The head office is in Atlanta. Ed Bastian is Chief Executive Officer.
Thesis
Delta trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for its strong brand, its premium and loyalty revenue and its record of profits in a cyclical industry. In 2026, fuel costs rose sharply. The adjusted fuel price was $3.61 per gallon in Q3 2026, 60% more than a year earlier, and Delta expects about $6 billion of higher fuel costs for the year. Delta cut capacity growth and acted to recover the higher costs, and adjusted revenue rose 16% in Q3 2026.
But it cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60, from $6.50 to $7.50. For the shares to earn this price, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing faster than costs while fuel prices stay high. Premium, loyalty and American Express revenue must keep growing, with American Express remuneration of more than $9 billion in 2026.
Delta must keep paying down debt toward gross leverage of about 1 times. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in mid-January 2027, are the next test. A fall in demand or higher fuel prices can make the premium hard to keep.
Checkpoints
- Oct 9, 2026FailedQ3 2026 results and the fuel cost impactAdjusted EPS in line with a year earlier and a kept 2026 outlook pass; a lower 2026 EPS outlook fails.Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $1.72, against $1.70 a year earlier, but Delta lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 because of higher fuel costs.
- Jan 9, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook2026 adjusted EPS within $5.10 to $5.60 and a 2027 outlook for higher EPS pass; EPS below the range fails.
- 2027 · est.PendingDebt reduction toward the leverage targetGross leverage below 2 times adjusted EBITDAR by the end of 2027 passes; higher leverage fails.
Recent events
- November 6, 2026Delta completed a public offering of $500 million of 5.500% notes due 2029.
- October 9, 2026Delta reported Q3 2026 results. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to a record $17.6 billion, and adjusted EPS was $1.72, against $1.70 a year earlier. GAAP EPS was $1.15. The adjusted fuel price rose 60% to $3.61 per gallon. Delta expects Q4 2026 revenue growth of about 20% and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.65, and it lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 and free cash flow to about $2.5 billion.
- July 10, 2026Delta reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $1.56, and adjusted pre-tax income was $1.4 billion, although fuel expense was the highest of any quarter in its history. Delta kept its 2026 outlook of adjusted EPS of $6.50 to $7.50 and raised the quarterly dividend by 15% to $0.215 per share from the September quarter.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- June 11, 2026Delta signed a new $2.65 billion revolving credit facility with a 3-year tranche and a 5-year tranche, which replaced its credit agreement of November 2023. The facility was undrawn.
- April 8, 2026Delta reported Q1 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $0.64, and the GAAP loss was $0.44 per share. Because fuel prices rose sharply, Delta reduced its capacity growth and acted to recover the higher costs.
- January 13, 2026Delta reported 2025 results. Adjusted revenue was $58.3 billion, adjusted EPS was $5.82 and GAAP EPS was $7.66. Free cash flow was a record $4.6 billion. Delta expected 2026 adjusted EPS of $6.50 to $7.50.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 9, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 9, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 8-KNew material agreement and Other company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · dal-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · dal-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · dal-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Fuel is a large cost. The adjusted fuel price rose 60% in Q3 2026, and Delta expects about $6 billion of higher fuel costs in 2026. A further rise in fuel prices can cut earnings fast, although its refinery gives a partial offset.
- Air travel demand falls in a recession. Lower demand from consumers and companies can reduce fares and load factors, while most airline costs stay fixed in the short term.
- Delta has aircraft purchase commitments of about $26.7 billion at September 30, 2026, including 100 Boeing 737-10 aircraft. Late deliveries or higher costs can delay growth and raise capital spending.
- Salaries and profit sharing are large costs. New union contracts and profit sharing, with nearly $900 million accrued in the first nine months of 2026, can raise costs.
- Storms, air traffic control problems and IT failures can disrupt operations. In Q3 2026, summer storms reduced capacity by nearly one point.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $3.8B
- Debt
- $12.9B
- Net debt
- $9.1B
- Credit line
- $3.1B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $9.1B
When the debt is due
Delta funds itself with cash flow, unsecured notes, secured debt and leases. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $3,787 million. Total debt and finance lease obligations were $12,851 million, $2,028 million less than a year earlier: $3,324 million due within one year and $9,527 million after that. Adjusted net debt, which adds aircraft operating leases and subtracts cash, was $13.4 billion, $950 million less than at the end of 2025. Liquidity was $6.9 billion, including $3.1 billion of undrawn revolving credit. On November 6, 2026, Delta issued $500 million of 5.500% notes due 2029. In the first nine months of 2026, Delta paid $393 million of dividends and bought back no shares; its $1.0 billion repurchase program runs to June 30, 2028. There were 657,912,380 shares at September 30, 2026. Delta expects to pay down more than $2 billion of debt in 2026 and to end the year with gross leverage of about 2.2 times adjusted EBITDAR. The quarterly dividend is $0.215 per share.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 0.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $92.20)
- Paid per share
- $0.806 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.86 ($0.215 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 9% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- October 15, 2026, $0.215 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.676 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.016 | |
| 2018 | $1.31 | |
| 2019 | $1.506 | |
| 2020 | $0.403 | |
| 2021 | $0.00 | |
| 2022 | $0.00 | |
| 2023 | $0.20 | |
| 2024 | $0.50 | |
| 2025 | $0.676 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 10.9% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 4.2% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 11, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Delta Air Lines
What does Delta Air Lines do?
Delta Air Lines flies passengers and cargo in the United States and to more than 300 destinations on six continents, with up to 5,500 daily flights of Delta and Delta Connection. It has about 100,000 employees and served more than 200 million customers in 2025. Its market cap is $61B at the current price of $92.20.
When does Delta Air Lines report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Delta Air Lines may report on January 9, 2027. It last reported results on October 9, 2026.
Is Delta Air Lines stock below its intrinsic value?
Delta Air Lines stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Delta Air Lines?
The latest update is from November 6, 2026. Delta completed a public offering of $500 million of 5.500% notes due 2029.
What are the main risks for Delta Air Lines?
Fuel is a large cost. Air travel demand falls in a recession. Delta has aircraft purchase commitments of about $26.7 billion at September 30, 2026, including 100 Boeing 737-10 aircraft.
How much debt and cash does Delta Air Lines have?
At September 30, 2026, Delta Air Lines had $12.9B of debt and $3.8B of cash.
Does Delta Air Lines pay a dividend?
Yes. Delta Air Lines paid $0.806 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current price of $92.20. The latest ex-dividend date was October 15, 2026.
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