By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $76.26
- Intrinsic value
- Intrinsic value: AI estimate
- Analysts view
- Analysts Bullish
- Discount category
- Pricey (AI estimate)
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 17 · · estimated
- P/E (trailing)
- 45.1
- Price of Nov 10, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $1.69
- 12 months to Dec 31, 2025
- 52-week range
- $54.46 – $97.38
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 3.66
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 9.0M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay more than the AI estimate for the fast growth of Carvana, and only several years of high unit growth at stable margins can earn the price.
- Gap
- Slow. The Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027, shows whether growth and margins hold, but the price needs several years of fast growth.
Company guidance: Adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion for 2026 and more retail units in Q4 than in Q3 (, Q3 2026 shareholder letter (8-K))
Price history
About
Carvana is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling cars in the United States. Customers buy, sell, trade in and finance cars online and get them delivered or pick them up. Carvana reconditions cars at its own centers and at integrated ADESA auction sites, and its current footprint has fully built-out capacity for about 1.5 million retail units a year. It also runs the ADESA wholesale auctions, sells new vehicles from seven Stellantis franchise dealerships, makes auto loans to its customers and sells most of the loans to Ally and other buyers.
In 2025, it sold 596,641 retail units, and revenue was $20.32 billion. Carvana Co. owned about 65.1% of the operating company, Carvana Group, at September 30, 2026. The head office is in Tempe, Arizona, and Ernie Garcia III is its founder, chairman and chief executive officer.
Thesis
Carvana trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for fast growth and for margins that the company says are about twice the industry average. Retail units sold rose 39% to 217,385 in Q3 2026 while the industry was about flat, and net income was $483 million. The company expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion, and its goal is to sell 3 million retail units a year at a 12.5% operating margin between 2030 and 2035. From the Q4 2026 report, it plans to give no quarterly or annual outlook.
For the price to be earned, three things must be true. Unit growth must stay high for several years: the run rate in Q3 2026 was about 870,000 units a year. Margins must hold while interest rates and fuel prices change: these two factors cut unit economics by about $200 per unit in Q3 2026. Ally and the other loan buyers must keep buying the loans that Carvana makes.
The Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027, is the next test. If growth slows, the stock can fall below the AI estimate quickly.
Valuation
AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made
Show the method
The intrinsic value for Carvana is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Carvana's filings. The method is a multiple of net income for 2027, divided by the number of Class A shares that would exist if all LLC units converted.
The third quarter 2026 letter (8-K, October 28, 2026) gives Q3 2026 revenue of $8,040 million, net income of $483 million and 217,385 retail units sold. It says that full conversion of LLC units and other dilutive effects would give 1.127 billion Class A shares, and it expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives net income of $1,401 million for the first nine months, total debt of $5,161 million, cash of $3,049 million, a tax receivable agreement liability of $2,130 million and deferred tax assets of $2,905 million. The fourth quarter 2025 release (8-K, February 18, 2026) gives 2025 net income of $1,895 million, which includes a benefit of about $685 million from tax items.
The multiple applies to net income after interest, so the estimate does not subtract the debt again. It does not subtract the tax receivable agreement liability, because the deferred tax assets are larger. Net income for 2026 and 2027, the tax rate and the multiples are assumptions. The estimate assumes 2026 net income of about $1.9 billion.
The low case assumes 2027 net income of $2.0 billion, because growth slows and margins fall, at 22 times. It gives $39.04 per share. The base case assumes $2.6 billion, about 37% growth, with retail unit growth near 35%, at 30 times. It gives $69.21 per share.
The high case assumes $3.2 billion, with fast growth and higher margins, at 38 times. It gives $107.90 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $71.34 per share.
The estimate finds no lasting advantage. Carvana has its own reconditioning network, a national delivery network and the ADESA auction sites, and the company says that its margins have been about twice the industry average for 10 quarters. But used car retail has many large competitors, customers can change sellers easily, and the company has made strong profits for only a few years, so the estimate does not expect the advantage to last 10 years.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results and 2026 outlookUnit growth near 40% and a kept Adjusted EBITDA outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.Outcome: Retail units rose 39% to 217,385, and Carvana expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion.
- Feb 17, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and GAAP goalsMore retail units in Q4 than in Q3 and 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $2.85 billion or more pass; fewer units or lower EBITDA fail.
- Jul 2027 · est.PendingLoan sale commitment after July 2027A renewed or new commitment to buy Carvana's auto loans passes; no new commitment fails.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026Carvana reported Q3 2026 results. Retail units sold rose 39% to 217,385 and revenue rose 42% to $8.04 billion. Net income was $483 million, after a $53 million loss on the early redemption of notes, and Adjusted EBITDA was $800 million. Diluted EPS was $0.39 per Class A share. Carvana expects more retail units in Q4 than in Q3 and 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion. From 2027, it plans to report mainly GAAP measures and changes its goal to 3 million retail units a year at a 12.5% operating margin between 2030 and 2035.
- August 14, 2026Carvana entered into a $1.66 billion Term Loan B that matures on August 14, 2033, at Term SOFR plus 2.25%. With the loan and cash, it redeemed all $1.66 billion of its 9% senior secured notes due 2030 for $1.711 billion. In the same quarter, Ally raised its commitment to buy Carvana's auto loans to up to $8 billion through July 2027.
- July 29, 2026Carvana reported Q2 2026 results. Retail units sold rose 38% to 197,325 and revenue rose 52% to $7.38 billion. Net income was $513 million and Adjusted EBITDA was $769 million. Carvana expected 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion, against $2.24 billion in 2025.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- May 5, 2026Carvana's stockholders approved a five-for-one forward split of the Class A and Class B common stock, and the company effected it in May 2026. They also approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan.
- April 29, 2026Carvana reported Q1 2026 results. Retail units sold rose 40% to 187,393 and revenue rose 52% to $6.43 billion. Net income was $405 million, after a $42 million loss from changes in the fair value of warrants, and Adjusted EBITDA was $672 million.
- February 18, 2026Carvana reported 2025 results. Retail units sold rose 43% to 596,641 and revenue rose 49% to $20.32 billion. Net income was $1.895 billion, including a benefit of about $685 million from the release of a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets and the related tax receivable agreement liability. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.24 billion.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 17, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · cvna-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cvna-20261028
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · cvna-20260814
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · cvna-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cvna-20260729
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Change to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled · cvna-20260505
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · cvna-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cvna-20260429
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · cvna-20251231
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cvna-20260218
Risks
- The stock prices several years of fast growth. If unit growth slows or margins fall, the price can fall a lot, and from the Q4 2026 report the company gives no outlook to guide investors.
- Carvana sells most of the auto loans it makes. In the first nine months of 2026, it sold $5.7 billion of loans to Ally and $4.5 billion in fixed pool sales. If buyers stop or pay less, Carvana must hold more loans or earn less on each sale. The Ally commitment runs through July 2027.
- Higher interest rates and fuel prices lower the profit on each car. Carvana estimates that these two factors cut unit economics by about $200 per unit in Q3 2026, and total gross profit per unit fell by $365.
- Holders of Class B stock control most of the votes: at the 2026 annual meeting, Class B stock had 707,088,671 of the 850,082,440 votes outstanding. The tax receivable agreement liability was $2.13 billion at September 30, 2026, of which $1.645 billion was due to related parties.
- Laws on the sale, financing and advertising of vehicles can change and can raise costs. Debt included $2.27 billion of 9% senior secured notes due 2031 and the $1.66 billion term loan due 2033.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $3.0B
- Debt
- $5.2B
- Net debt
- $2.1B
- Interest cover
- 6.6×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $2.1B
When the debt is due
Carvana funds itself with senior secured notes, a term loan, asset-based facilities and the sale of the auto loans it makes. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $5.16 billion, without finance leases: $2.27 billion of 9% senior secured notes due 2031, a $1.66 billion Term Loan B due 2033, $107 million of senior unsecured notes and $1.13 billion of asset-based financing, including $485 million of real estate financing. Of this debt, $302 million was due within one year. Cash was $3.05 billion. In August 2026, Carvana used the term loan and cash to redeem $1.66 billion of 9% notes due 2030. Short-term revolving facilities for vehicle inventory and finance receivables had commitments of $5.6 billion and unused capacity of $5.5 billion, and loan sale agreements had unused capacity of $6.0 billion with Ally and $8.3 billion with other buyers. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 ($1,975 million against $298 million). The tax receivable agreement liability was $2.13 billion, and total stockholders' equity was $5.65 billion. Carvana pays no dividend. On October 26, 2026, there were 722,713,745 Class A shares and 380,547,355 Class B shares outstanding.
Dividends
Carvana does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Carvana
What does Carvana do?
Carvana is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling cars in the United States. Customers buy, sell, trade in and finance cars online and get them delivered or pick them up.
When does Carvana report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Carvana may report on February 17, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Carvana stock below its intrinsic value?
Carvana stock is pricey. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Carvana?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Carvana reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Carvana?
The stock prices several years of fast growth. Carvana sells most of the auto loans it makes. Higher interest rates and fuel prices lower the profit on each car.
How much debt and cash does Carvana have?
At September 30, 2026, Carvana had $5.2B of debt and $3.0B of cash.
Does Carvana pay a dividend?
No. Carvana does not pay a dividend.
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