Suncor Energy

Suncor Energy is Canada's leading integrated energy company. It mines oil sands at its wholly owned Oil Sands Base and Fort Hills mines and at Syncrude, in which it owns 58.74%, and it produces bitumen from in situ wells at Firebag and MacKay River. It upgrades much of the bitumen into synthetic crude oil and diesel.

It also produces oil off the east coast of Canada, runs refineries in Canada and the United States with a nameplate capacity of 511,000 barrels per day from 2026, and sells fuel through the Petro-Canada retail and wholesale networks, with 1,732 retail stations in Canada at the end of 2025. In 2025, upstream production was a record 860,000 barrels per day and refining throughput was a record 480,000 barrels per day. The head office is in Calgary, Alberta, and Rich Kruger is its chief executive officer.

Suncor trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for record cash flow at high oil prices and for large share buybacks. WTI averaged US$85.70 per barrel in Q3 2026, against US$64.95 a year earlier, and adjusted operating earnings rose to C$4.63 billion from C$1.79 billion. Net debt fell to C$1.75 billion at September 30, 2026. Suncor now buys back C$750 million of shares each month, and it raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.66.

But earnings move with oil prices and refining margins, which Suncor does not control. For the price to be earned, three things must be true. Oil prices must stay well above the levels of 2025, when WTI averaged US$64.75. Suncor must meet its 2026 Investor Day goals to raise normalized free funds flow by C$2 billion and lower its WTI breakeven by US$5 per barrel to US$38 by 2028.

Upstream production must grow by 100,000 barrels per day by 2028 without large cost increases. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test. If oil prices fall to the levels of 2025, the stock can fall below the AI estimate.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Nov 3, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results and shareholder returnsHigher adjusted funds from operations and kept buybacks pass; lower buybacks fail.Outcome: Adjusted funds from operations reached a record C$6.7 billion, and Suncor raised buybacks to C$750 million a month and its dividend by 10%.
2. Feb 2, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 planUpstream production near 2026 levels and buybacks of C$750 million a month pass; lower buybacks or production fail.
3. Q1 2027 · est.Pending

   Sale of offshore assets to Ithaca closesClosing in early 2027 with the C$1.2 billion cash payment passes; a failed or late sale fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 3, 2026Suncor reported Q3 2026 results. Adjusted operating earnings were C$4.63 billion, or C$3.97 per share, against C$1.79 billion. Net earnings were C$3.81 billion, after a C$1.08 billion impairment for the planned sale of offshore assets. Adjusted funds from operations were a record C$6.71 billion and free funds flow was C$5.20 billion. Upstream production was 852,500 barrels per day. Suncor returned C$2.05 billion to shareholders, including C$1.35 billion of buybacks, and raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.66 per share, payable on December 24, 2026.
• October 4, 2026Suncor agreed to sell its 48% interest in Terra Nova, 40% interest in White Rose and 38.6% interest in West White Rose to Ithaca Energy for C$1.2 billion in cash and a contingent payment of up to C$350 million. Ithaca takes on the future liabilities, including about C$1.4 billion of abandonment and lease liabilities. The sale is expected to close in early 2027. Suncor raised its share buybacks to C$750 million a month from October 2026.
• August 4, 2026Suncor reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted operating earnings were C$3.80 billion, or C$3.23 per share, and adjusted funds from operations were C$5.33 billion. Upstream production fell to 761,000 barrels per day because of a planned turnaround at Firebag. Suncor raised its share buybacks to C$500 million a month from C$350 million from August 2026.

Next earnings

Expected about February 2, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 26, 2026 · su-20251231x40f
• 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed February 27, 2025 · su-20241231x40f

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 311337)

• Earnings move with crude oil prices, heavy oil price differentials and refining margins, which Suncor does not control. Adjusted operating earnings were C$1.48 per share in Q3 2025, when WTI averaged US$64.95, and C$3.97 in Q3 2026, when WTI averaged US$85.70.
• Royalties and income taxes rise with prices: current income tax and royalties expenses were C$8.07 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Changes to royalty, tax or emissions rules can lower cash flow.
• Mines, upgraders and refineries need large turnarounds and can have outages. Upstream production fell to 761,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026 during the Firebag turnaround.
• The sale of the offshore assets to Ithaca Energy needs regulatory approvals and partner consents. If it does not close, Suncor keeps their costs and liabilities.
• Long-term demand for oil and rules for lower emissions can lower the value of long-life oil sands reserves. Provisions, mostly for asset retirement, were C$10.15 billion in non-current liabilities at September 30, 2026.

Suncor funds itself with notes and debentures, lease liabilities and equity. At September 30, 2026, total debt was C$9.75 billion: C$9.19 billion of long-term debt and C$561 million due within one year. Read more

Dividend yield

2.5% (last 12 months, at today’s price of CA$95.15)

Paid per share

CA$2.40 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

CA$2.40 (CA$0.60 × 4 a year)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 4, 2026, CA$0.60 per share

Dividends per share by year

Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 23.4% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 7.5% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.