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TRGPMidstream: natural gas processing and natural gas liquids

Targa Resources

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$281.32
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value: AI estimate
Analysts view
Very bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 5 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$60B
Shares of Oct 30, 2026
P/E (trailing)
24.9
Price of Nov 11, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$11.30
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$166.18 – $316.60
To Nov 10, 2026
Beta
0.76
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
1.3M
3 months, to Nov 10, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Targa trades close to the AI estimate because investors weigh its fast Permian growth and dividend increases against high spending, and growth as planned can lift the value.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 show whether the new plants and fractionators raise earnings as planned.

Company guidance: 2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least $6.0 billion; a 2027 annual common dividend of $6.00 per share (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

About

Targa Resources (Targa) gathers and processes natural gas and transports, fractionates, stores, sells and exports natural gas liquids (NGLs). It reports two segments. Gathering and Processing has plants and pipelines in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and in other basins in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Louisiana. Logistics and Transportation has NGL pipelines, fractionators in Mont Belvieu, Texas, and LPG export facilities at Galena Park, Texas.

In Q3 2026, natural gas inlet volumes in the Permian were a record 7,537 million cubic feet per day, NGL pipeline transportation volumes 1,172 thousand barrels per day and fractionation volumes 1,262 thousand barrels per day. In 2025, adjusted EBITDA was a record $4,957 million. Its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The head office is in Houston.

Thesis

Targa trades close to the AI estimate because investors pay for its fast growth in the Permian Basin and its fast-growing dividend, but they also see its high spending and its exposure to commodity prices. Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,504 million in Q3 2026, and Targa expects at least $6.0 billion for 2026, after $4,957 million in 2025. Net growth capital expenditures are about $5.0 billion in 2026.

For the value to grow, three things must be true. Permian production must keep growing, so that the new plants for ExxonMobil and other customers fill. The new projects, such as the Speedway NGL Pipeline and Trains 13 and 14 in Mont Belvieu, must start on time and on budget.

Free cash flow must grow enough to pay the planned 2027 dividend of $6.00 per share without much more debt. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, are the next test. A fall in Permian drilling or lower NGL prices can slow the growth.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Targa Resources is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Targa's filings. The method is a multiple of diluted EPS for 2027.

The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 5, 2026) gives net income attributable to Targa of $658 million, or $3.04 per diluted share, for Q3 2026, and its reconciliation of the adjusted EBITDA outlook of at least $6.0 billion for 2026 gives estimated net income attributable to Targa of $2,490 million for 2026. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives diluted EPS of $8.79 for the first nine months of 2026 and 215.2 million diluted shares for Q3 2026. So the estimate takes EPS of about $11.57 for 2026. EPS is after interest, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment.

EPS for 2027 and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes that Permian growth slows and NGL margins fall, with EPS of $11.50, at 17 times. It gives $195.50 per share. The base case assumes growth from the new plants and fractionators, with EPS of $13.50, at 20 times.

It gives $270.00 per share. The high case assumes strong Permian growth and the new ExxonMobil volumes, with EPS of $15.00, at 23 times. It gives $345.00 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%.

The weighted intrinsic value is $270.13 per share. Efficient scale and switching costs are the main sources of the advantage. Targa's plants, NGL pipelines and fractionators form a connected system from the Permian wellhead to Mont Belvieu and the export dock, and some contracts are fee-based and long term, such as the 20-year agreements with ExxonMobil of August 2026. But other midstream companies build competing plants and pipelines in the Permian, and part of the margin depends on commodity prices.

The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 5, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results and the 2026 outlookHigher adjusted EBITDA and a kept or higher 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,504 million, and Targa raised its 2026 outlook to at least $6.0 billion.
  2. Feb 5, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook2026 adjusted EBITDA of $6.0 billion or more and a 2027 outlook for higher EBITDA pass; a lower outlook fails.
  3. Q3 2027 · est.Pending
    Start of the Yeti and Yeti II plantsYeti in Q2 2027 and Yeti II in Q3 2027, as planned, pass; delays fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 5, 2026Targa reported Q3 2026 results. Net income attributable to Targa rose to $658 million, or $3.04 per diluted share, from $478 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,504 million. Permian inlet, NGL transportation and fractionation volumes were records. Targa now expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least $6.0 billion, and it expects to recommend a 2027 annual dividend of $6.00 per share, 20% more than in 2026. It will build Train 14, a new 150 thousand barrels per day fractionator in Mont Belvieu, which is expected to start in Q1 2029. In August 2026, Targa signed 20-year, fee-based agreements with subsidiaries of ExxonMobil for gathering, processing and downstream services in the Permian Basin, and it announced three new processing plants in the Permian Delaware to serve them.
  • August 20, 2026Targa appointed Brent B. Secrest, a former Chief Commercial Officer of Enterprise Products, as President of Logistics and Transportation from September 1, 2026.
  • August 6, 2026Targa reported Q2 2026 results. Net income attributable to Targa was $765 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 38% to a record $1,603 million. Train 11 and the Delaware Express NGL Pipeline expansion started operations.
Show 2 older events
  • March 2, 2026Targa issued $750 million of 4.350% senior notes due 2031 and $750 million of 6.050% senior notes due 2056.
  • February 19, 2026Targa reported 2025 results. Net income attributable to Targa was $1,923 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to a record $4,957 million. It completed the purchase of Stakeholder Midstream in January 2026 and expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 to $5.6 billion.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1389170)

Risks

  • Growth depends on oil and gas drilling in the Permian Basin. Lower oil prices can slow drilling and leave new plants and pipelines with less volume than planned.
  • Part of the margin depends on commodity prices and spreads, mainly in Gathering and Processing and in marketing. In Q3 2026, lower marketing margin and lower LPG export margin reduced adjusted EBITDA by 6% from Q2 2026.
  • Targa spends about $5.0 billion on growth projects in 2026. Delays or higher costs on the new plants, pipelines and fractionators can lower returns and raise debt.
  • Other midstream companies compete for Permian volumes, NGL transportation and fractionation.
  • LPG exports depend on foreign demand and trade policy. Tariffs or trade disputes can reduce export volumes and fees.

Balance sheet

Cash
$143M
Debt
$19.8B
Net debt
$19.7B
Credit line
$2.6B
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$143M
Debt$19.8B

debt covered by cashnet debt $19.7B

When the debt is due

12 months$563M
Later$19.3B

The last debt is due in 2056.

Targa funds itself with senior unsecured notes, commercial paper, a revolving credit facility and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, total consolidated debt was $19.8 billion, net of issuance costs and discount: $17.9 billion of senior unsecured notes, $860 million of commercial paper, $451 million under the accounts receivable securitization facility and $796 million of finance lease liabilities.

Dividends

Dividend yield
1.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $281.32)
Paid per share
$4.75 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$5.00 ($1.25 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
44% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
October 30, 2026, $1.25 per share

Dividends per share by year

Targa Resources dividends per share by year
2016
$3.64
2017
$3.64
2018
$3.64
2019
$3.64
2020
$1.21
2021
$0.40
2022
$1.40
2023
$1.85
2024
$2.75
2025
$3.75

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 25.4% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 1.0% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 11, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Targa Resources

What does Targa Resources do?

Targa Resources (Targa) gathers and processes natural gas and transports, fractionates, stores, sells and exports natural gas liquids (NGLs). It reports two segments. Its market cap is $60B at the current price of $281.32.

When does Targa Resources report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Targa Resources may report on February 5, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.

Is Targa Resources stock below its intrinsic value?

Targa Resources stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Targa Resources?

The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Targa reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Targa Resources?

Growth depends on oil and gas drilling in the Permian Basin. Part of the margin depends on commodity prices and spreads, mainly in Gathering and Processing and in marketing. Targa spends about $5.0 billion on growth projects in 2026.

How much debt and cash does Targa Resources have?

At September 30, 2026, Targa Resources had $19.8B of debt and $143M of cash.

Does Targa Resources pay a dividend?

Yes. Targa Resources paid $4.75 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 1.7% at the current price of $281.32. The latest ex-dividend date was October 30, 2026.

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