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WMMVYRetail

Walmart de México

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$29.09
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value: AI estimate
Analysts view
Leaning bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 16 ·
History
52-week range
$24.80 – $35.47
To Nov 10, 2026
Beta
0.61
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
190K
3 months, to Nov 10, 2026

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In short

Thesis
Investors price Walmex close to the AI estimate as a strong retailer whose growth has slowed in a weak Mexican economy, and only faster same-store sales with a stable margin can lift its value.
Gap
Slow. Growth depends on a recovery of consumption in Mexico and on years of eCommerce and productivity gains, so no single event can close the gap.

Company guidance: 2026 consolidated sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in constant currency, with an EBITDA margin slightly below 2025 (, 3Q26 quarterly report to the Mexican Stock Exchange)

Price history

About

Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (Walmex) is the largest retailer in Mexico, and it also operates in Central America. At September 30, 2026, it had 4,346 stores: 3,389 in Mexico and 957 in Central America. Its formats include Bodega Aurrera discount stores, Walmart Supercenter, Walmart Express and Sam's Club. It also sells online and offers financial and advertising services.

Revenue was 1,011.6 billion pesos in 2025 and 248.8 billion pesos in Q3 2026. Walmart Inc. owns 71.20% of the shares. The shares trade on the Mexican Stock Exchange, and American depositary receipts trade over the counter as WMMVY. One ADR represents ten shares.

The head office is in Mexico City. Cristian Barrientos Pozo is President and Chief Executive Officer.

Thesis

The market prices Walmex close to the AI estimate, as a strong retailer whose growth has slowed. Consumption in Mexico is soft, and Walmex invests in lower prices, wages and eCommerce, so net income fell 1.7% in the first nine months of 2026. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true.

Same-store sales must grow faster again, with better traffic in Mexico. eCommerce, which grew 15.8% in Q3 2026 in Mexico, and the higher-margin Commerce Solutions must offset the price investments. And productivity savings must hold the EBITDA margin near 10%. The Q4 2026 report on February 16, 2027, with the 2027 guidance, is the next test.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Walmart de México is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Walmex's own reports. The values are per American depositary receipt (ADR) in U.S. dollars.

The ADR page of Walmex's investor website gives a ratio of 1:10, so one ADR represents ten Walmex shares, in a sponsored programme with The Bank of New York Mellon. The company reports in Mexican pesos. The method is a multiple of EPS for 2027. The 3Q26 earnings release (October 27, 2026) gives EPS of 0.642 pesos for Q3 2026 and 2.012 pesos for the first nine months, against 2.030 pesos a year earlier, revenue growth of 3.0% and an EBITDA margin of 10.2% in Q3 2026.

The 3Q26 quarterly report to the Mexican Stock Exchange (October 27, 2026) gives 2026 guidance for consolidated sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in constant currency with an EBITDA margin slightly below 2025, cash of 27,065 million pesos, lease liabilities of 84,020 million pesos, no bank debt and 17,137,424,318 shares at September 30, 2026. The 2025 financial summary gives 2025 EPS of 2.873 pesos. EPS is after the interest on leases, and Walmex has no bank debt, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. It uses an exchange rate of 18.53 pesos per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 10, 2026, as an assumption.

The estimate assumes that 2026 EPS is close to 2025 EPS. The EPS for 2027 and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes weak consumption in Mexico and more price investment, with EPS of 2.75 pesos, at 16 times. It gives 44.00 pesos per share, 440.00 pesos per ADR and $23.75 in U.S. dollars.

The base case assumes sales growth near 5% and a stable margin, with EPS of 3.05 pesos, at 19 times. It gives 57.95 pesos per share, 579.50 pesos per ADR and $31.27. The high case assumes faster growth from eCommerce and new stores, with EPS of 3.30 pesos, at 22 times. It gives 72.60 pesos per share, 726.00 pesos per ADR and $39.18.

The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $31.37 per ADR. The value moves with the peso. Cost advantage is the main source of the advantage.

Walmex has 4,346 stores, about 8.1 million square meters of sales area and a large distribution network, which let it buy and deliver goods at a lower cost than most rivals. But other retailers and online stores compete on price, and sales growth has slowed. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of

Show 4 sources

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 27, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results and 2026 guidanceReaffirmed 2026 guidance for sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% passes; a cut fails.Outcome: Walmex reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, with revenue growth of 3.0% in Q3 2026.
  2. Feb 16, 2027Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidanceSame-store sales growth in Mexico of 3% or more and a stable EBITDA margin pass; slower growth or a lower margin fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 27, 2026Walmex reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 3.0%, same-store sales grew 1.7% in Mexico and 4.8% in Central America, and EPS was 0.642 pesos, against 0.678 pesos a year earlier. Walmex reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.
  • July 22, 2026Walmex reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 1.9%, and same-store sales grew 1.8% in Mexico, with lower traffic.
  • April 28, 2026Walmex reported Q1 2026 results, with EPS of 0.723 pesos, against 0.707 pesos a year earlier.
Show 2 older events
  • April 20, 2026Shareholders approved an ordinary dividend of 1.16 pesos per share, paid in two parts on November 18 and December 9, 2026.
  • February 18, 2026Walmex reported 2025 results. Revenue grew 5.5% to 1,011.6 billion pesos, and EPS was 2.873 pesos, against 3.085 pesos in 2024.

Risks

  • Consumption in Mexico is weak. Traffic in Mexican stores was flat or lower in 2026, and slow sales growth can lower earnings.
  • Walmex invests in lower prices and higher wages. SG&A rose to 17.4% of revenue in Q3 2026, and the EBITDA margin fell to 10.2%.
  • Mexico's competition authority, COFECE, fined a Walmex subsidiary in December 2024 for its supplier practices and ordered changes. Walmex challenged the ruling. New rules can limit how it deals with suppliers.
  • Other retailers and online stores compete on price and delivery speed.
  • Walmex reports in pesos, so the value of the ADR moves with the peso against the U.S. dollar.

Balance sheet

Cash
MX$27.1B
Debt
MX$0.0M
Net cash
MX$27.1B

Cash against debt

CashMX$27.1B
DebtMX$0.0M

debt covered by cash

Walmex funds its business with cash flow and has no bank debt. At September 30, 2026, cash was 27,065 million pesos, and lease liabilities were 84,020 million pesos: 5,676 million current and 78,344 million non-current.

As of

Show 2 sources

Dividends

The dividend data after December 9, 2024 is missing.

Latest ex-dividend date
December 9, 2024, $0.531 per share

Dividends per share by year

Walmart de México dividends per share by year
2016
$0.934
2017
$0.533
2018
$0.608
2019
$1.075
2020
$0.884
2021
$0.782
2022
$0.856
2023
$1.515
2024
$1.064
2025
$0.00

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Walmart de México

What does Walmart de México do?

Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (Walmex) is the largest retailer in Mexico, and it also operates in Central America.

When does Walmart de México report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on February 16, 2027. It last reported results on October 27, 2026.

Is Walmart de México stock below its intrinsic value?

Walmart de México stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Walmart de México?

The latest update is from October 27, 2026. Walmex reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Walmart de México?

Consumption in Mexico is weak. Walmex invests in lower prices and higher wages. Mexico's competition authority, COFECE, fined a Walmex subsidiary in December 2024 for its supplier practices and ordered changes.

How much debt and cash does Walmart de México have?

At September 30, 2026, Walmart de México had MX$0.0M of debt and MX$27.1B of cash.

Does Walmart de México pay a dividend?

The dividend data for Walmart de México after December 9, 2024 is missing.

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