National Australia Bank

National Australia Bank (NAB) is one of the four major banks in Australia. It has four divisions: Business and Private Banking, Personal Banking, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and New Zealand Banking. Business banking is its largest business: Business and Private Banking gave A$3,685 million of the A$7,090 million of cash earnings without large notable items in fiscal 2026. At September 30, 2026, gross loans and advances were A$822.4 billion, customer deposits were A$692.6 billion and total assets were A$1,145.9 billion.

NAB had 43,271 full-time equivalent employees. Its fiscal year ends on September 30. Its shares trade on the Australian Securities Exchange, and its ADSs trade over the counter in the United States. Andrew Irvine is its chief executive officer.

NAB trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for its strong position in business banking in Australia, a high dividend and a solid capital base. In fiscal 2026, Australian business lending rose 9.8%, deposits rose 5.2% and NAB paid dividends of 170 cents per share. But earnings stopped growing: cash earnings without large notable items were A$7,090 million, flat against fiscal 2025, because credit impairment charges rose to A$1,547 million from A$833 million.

For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Credit losses must stay under control while the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps its cash rate at 4.85% and house prices fall; NAB's own economists expect unemployment to rise to about 5.5% by early 2028. Costs must grow less than 3% in fiscal 2027, before the A$300 million restructuring charge, as NAB plans.

The CET1 ratio must stay above the target of 11.25% while the dividend stays at 85 cents for each half year. The first-quarter trading update, expected in February 2027, and the half-year results on May 5, 2027 are the next tests. If impairments keep rising or margins fall, the stock can fall toward the AI estimate.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Nov 5, 2026Passed

   Fiscal 2026 results and final dividendCash earnings without large notable items near fiscal 2025, a CET1 ratio above 11.25% and a kept dividend pass; a dividend cut fails.Outcome: Cash earnings without the large notable item were flat at A$7,090 million, the CET1 ratio was 11.87% and the final dividend stayed at 85 cents, but credit impairment charges rose to A$1,547 million.
2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending

   First-quarter fiscal 2027 trading updateStable credit impairment charges and costs on track for growth of less than 3% pass; a sharp rise in impaired assets fails.
3. May 5, 2027Pending

   First-half fiscal 2027 resultsHigher cash earnings before the restructuring charge, a CET1 ratio above 11.25% and an interim dividend of 85 cents or more pass; higher losses or a dividend cut fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 5, 2026NAB reported fiscal 2026 results. Cash earnings fell 13.4% to A$6,141 million. Without the large notable item, cash earnings were A$7,090 million, flat against fiscal 2025. Statutory net profit was A$6,143 million. Credit impairment charges rose to A$1,547 million from A$833 million, and they include a A$403 million increase in forward-looking provisions. The net interest margin rose 6 basis points to 1.80%, and the CET1 ratio was 11.87%. The final dividend is 85 cents per share, fully franked, payable on December 15, 2026, and the dividend reinvestment plan has a 1.5% discount.
• October 20, 2026NAB announced a restructuring charge of A$300 million. It will record the charge in cash earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and it expects the charge to lower the CET1 ratio by about 5 basis points.
• August 17, 2026NAB gave its third-quarter trading update. Unaudited cash earnings were A$1.83 billion, 2% above the quarterly average of the first half without the large notable item. The CET1 ratio was 11.93%. Home loan applications fell 15% from the second quarter, and watch loans rose.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 125 basis points from February 2026, to 4.85%, and house prices are falling. Arrears on home loans rose, and impaired business loans rose in fiscal 2026. More credit losses can cut earnings and the dividend.
• Banks compete hard for home loans and deposits. NAB said that lending competition took away part of its margin gains in fiscal 2026, and its home loan applications fell 15% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
• The cash dividend payout ratio was 85.1% in fiscal 2026. NAB used discounted dividend reinvestment plans to add capital in 2026, which issued about 49 million new shares, and it can need more of them if losses rise.
• NAB plans a A$300 million restructuring and a large technology program. If the program costs more or saves less than planned, costs can grow faster than the plan of less than 3% for fiscal 2027.
• The ADS price is in U.S. dollars, but NAB reports in Australian dollars. A weaker Australian dollar lowers the dollar value of each ADS and of its dividends.

NAB is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans and deposits, and not corporate debt. At September 30, 2026, total assets were A$1,145.9 billion, loans and advances were A$816.7 billion and deposits and other borrowings were A$786.0 billion. Read more

Dividend yield

2.2% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $13.77)

Paid per share

$0.306 in the last 12 months (1 payment)

Current annual rate

$0.612 ($0.306 × 2 a year)

Latest ex-dividend date

May 15, 2026, $0.306 per share

Dividends per share by year

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.