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UPSParcel delivery & logistics

United Parcel Service

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$110.96
Analysts view
Analysts Leaning bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Top pick
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 26 · · estimated
History
P/E (trailing)
21.4
Price of Nov 10, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$5.19
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$90.84 – $122.41
To Nov 9, 2026
Beta
0.96
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
4.8M
3 months, to Nov 9, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market doubts that UPS can grow profit after it chose to carry less volume, and higher margins with free cash flow above the dividend over the next years can close the gap.
Gap
Slow. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, is the next test, but higher margins after the volume cuts need several years of execution.

Company guidance: Revenue of about $92.6 billion, non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of about $7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of about $6.1B for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

About

UPS delivers packages and freight and provides logistics services in more than 200 countries and territories. It reports U.S. Domestic and International segments and Supply Chain Solutions, which includes forwarding, logistics and healthcare logistics.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, it bought Andlauer Healthcare Group. It has about 460,000 employees, and its 2025 revenue was $88.7 billion. In Q2 2026, it completed a planned reduction of volume from its largest customer, Amazon, by more than 50% from 2024 levels.

Thesis

The market doubts that UPS can grow profit after it chose to carry less volume. It cut volume from its largest customer by more than half from 2024 levels, and U.S. air and ground average daily volume fell again in Q3 2026. Costs rose, because UPS now pays USPS to deliver its Ground Saver product and leases aircraft after it retired its MD-11 fleet. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9 billion, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $1.69.

UPS raised its 2026 outlook to adjusted EPS of about $7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of about $6.1 billion. Dividends of about $5.4 billion use most of that cash, and UPS bought back no shares in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. U.S.

Domestic revenue per piece must keep rising faster than cost per piece. The adjusted operating margin must keep rising from 9.0% in Q3 2026. Free cash flow must cover the dividend with room left over. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, gives the next test.

If these conditions hold, the gap can close within one to two years.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 27, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 resultsRevenue growth with a higher adjusted operating margin and a higher 2026 outlook pass; lower guidance fails.Outcome: Revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9 billion, the adjusted operating margin was 9.0% and UPS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to about $7.28.
  2. Jan 26, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidanceQ4 adjusted operating profit near $3.3 billion and 2027 guidance for higher adjusted EPS and free cash flow above the dividend pass; lower profit guidance or free cash flow below the dividend fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 4, 2026The UPS board appointed Shannon Eisenhardt, Group Chief Financial Officer of Reckitt Benckiser, as a director and member of the Audit Committee.
  • October 27, 2026UPS reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9 billion. Diluted EPS was $1.37, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $1.69. The non-GAAP adjusted operating margin was 9.0%. U.S. Domestic revenue per piece rose 6.1%. GAAP results include a goodwill impairment of $182 million in Supply Chain Solutions. UPS raised its 2026 outlook to revenue of about $92.6 billion, adjusted operating profit of about $8.75 billion, adjusted EPS of about $7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of about $6.1 billion.
  • August 31, 2026UPS said that Kate Gutmann, President of International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions, will retire, and it appointed Wilfredo Ramos to lead these businesses. Nando Cesarone became Chief Global Operations Officer.
Show 2 older events
  • August 10, 2026UPS agreed to sell $1.0 billion of 4.850% senior notes due 2031. It planned to contribute $450 million of the notes to two of its pension trusts.
  • July 28, 2026UPS reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $22.8 billion, diluted EPS was $0.71 and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $1.76. GAAP results include after-tax transformation charges of $891 million, mostly for employee separations in the Driver Choice Program. UPS said that it completed the planned reduction of Amazon volume and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $7.22.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 27, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 26, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · ups-20261104
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · ups-20260930
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · ups-20261027
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · ups-20260831
  • 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
  • 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · ups-20260630
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · ups-20260728
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · ups-20260613
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · ups-20260513

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1090727)

Risks

  • Volume is falling while some costs rise. U.S. cost per piece rose 10.2% in the first nine months of 2026, because of fees paid to USPS for Ground Saver, fuel, wage increases and lower volume. If revenue per piece stops rising faster, margins fall.
  • UPS expects dividend payments of about $5.4 billion and pension contributions of $1.3 billion in 2026, against adjusted free cash flow of about $6.1 billion. A weaker year can leave the dividend without full cover from free cash flow.
  • Trade policy and conflicts lower international volume. Changes in trade policy, including tariffs and de minimis exclusions, lowered U.S. import volume, and export volume fell 8.3% in Q3 2026, led by Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
  • UPS retired its MD-11 fleet in the fourth quarter of 2025 and leases other aircraft to replace the capacity. Higher aircraft lease costs can reduce margins.
  • Supply Chain Solutions is less profitable than the parcel business, and UPS recorded a goodwill impairment of $182 million in this group in Q3 2026.

Balance sheet

Cash
$6.8B
Debt
$26.1B
Net debt
$19.2B

Cash against debt

Cash$6.8B
Debt$26.1B

debt covered by cashnet debt $19.2B

When the debt is due

12 months$957M
Later$25.1B

At September 30, 2026, UPS had cash and cash equivalents of $6,837 million and no commercial paper outstanding. Long-term debt and finance leases were $25,121 million, and current maturities were $957 million, for a total of $26,078 million including finance leases.

Dividends

Dividend yield
5.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $110.96)
Paid per share
$6.56 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$6.56 ($1.64 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
100% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
August 17, 2026, $1.64 per share

Dividends per share by year

United Parcel Service dividends per share by year
2016
$3.12
2017
$3.32
2018
$3.64
2019
$3.84
2020
$4.04
2021
$4.08
2022
$6.08
2023
$6.48
2024
$6.52
2025
$6.56

Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 10.0% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about United Parcel Service

What does United Parcel Service do?

UPS delivers packages and freight and provides logistics services in more than 200 countries and territories. It reports U.S. Domestic and International segments and Supply Chain Solutions, which includes forwarding, logistics and healthcare logistics.

When does United Parcel Service report earnings next?

This is an estimate: United Parcel Service may report on January 26, 2027. It last reported results on October 27, 2026.

Is United Parcel Service stock below its intrinsic value?

United Parcel Service stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at United Parcel Service?

The latest update is from November 4, 2026. The UPS board appointed Shannon Eisenhardt, Group Chief Financial Officer of Reckitt Benckiser, as a director and member of the Audit Committee.

What are the main risks for United Parcel Service?

Volume is falling while some costs rise. UPS expects dividend payments of about $5.4 billion and pension contributions of $1.3 billion in 2026, against adjusted free cash flow of about $6.1 billion. Trade policy and conflicts lower international volume.

How much debt and cash does United Parcel Service have?

At September 30, 2026, United Parcel Service had $26.1B of debt and $6.8B of cash.

Does United Parcel Service pay a dividend?

Yes. United Parcel Service paid $6.56 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 5.9% at the current price of $110.96. The latest ex-dividend date was August 17, 2026.

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