CPRailroads
Canadian Pacific Kansas City
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- CA$132.62
- Analysts view
- Analysts Bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 27 · · estimated
- Market cap
- CA$115B
- Shares of Oct 27, 2026
- 52-week range
- CA$96.84 – CA$133.58
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.84
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.2M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for the three-country rail network of CPKC, and only years of volume and earnings growth while trade between Canada, the United States and Mexico stays open can earn it.
- Gap
- Slow. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, shows whether earnings keep growing, but the premium needs years of growth across the three-country network.
Company guidance: Low double-digit growth in core adjusted diluted EPS from C$4.61 and mid-single digit RTM growth for 2026 (, Q4 2025 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) is the only single-line railway that links Canada, the United States and Mexico. Canadian Pacific took control of Kansas City Southern (KCS) on April 14, 2023. The network has about 20,000 route miles and reaches ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada, the Gulf Coast and Lázaro Cárdenas in Mexico, and the company has about 20,000 employees. In the first nine months of 2026, grain gave C$2.70 billion of the C$11.86 billion of freight revenues, energy, chemicals and plastics C$2.24 billion and intermodal C$2.23 billion.
It also carries coal, potash, fertilizers, forest products, metals, minerals, consumer products and automotive products. Revenues were C$15.1 billion in 2025. The head office is in Calgary, Alberta, and Keith Creel is its president and chief executive officer.
Thesis
CPKC trades at a premium because investors pay for its unique network across Canada, the United States and Mexico and for the growth that the combination with KCS can bring. Revenues rose 15% in Q3 2026, volumes in revenue ton-miles rose 6% and core adjusted diluted EPS rose 16% to C$1.28. For 2026, the company guides low double-digit growth in core adjusted diluted EPS from C$4.61 in 2025; the first nine months gave C$3.57, against C$3.28 a year earlier. But the core adjusted operating ratio rose to 61.9% in Q3 2026 from 60.7%, mostly because of higher fuel prices, and cross-border freight depends on tariffs and trade rules between the three countries.
For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Volume growth must continue in grain, intermodal and merchandise. The operating ratio must improve again when fuel costs fall. Core adjusted EPS must keep growing at about a low double-digit rate after 2026, with help from buybacks.
The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. If cross-border trade weakens, the premium can shrink.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results and 2026 guidanceCore adjusted EPS growth near the guidance and volume growth pass; a cut to guidance fails.Outcome: Core adjusted diluted EPS rose 16% to C$1.28, volumes rose 6%, and the company said that it remains on track for its 2026 commitments.
- Jan 27, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2026 core adjusted EPS growth of about 10% or more and 2027 guidance for more growth pass; lower guidance fails.
- Apr 2027 · est.PendingQ1 2027 results: operating ratioA core adjusted operating ratio below the 63.0% of Q1 2026 and volume growth pass; a higher ratio fails.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026CPKC reported Q3 2026 results. Revenues rose 15% to C$4.2 billion, and revenue ton-miles rose 6%. Diluted EPS was C$1.04 and core adjusted diluted EPS rose 16% to C$1.28. The reported operating ratio rose to 64.8% from 63.5%, and higher fuel prices added 170 basis points. The company said that it remains on track to meet its commitments for 2026. It declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.268 per share, payable on January 25, 2027.
- October 6, 2026CPKC issued C$1.8 billion of notes: C$500 million of 4.20% notes due 2030, C$550 million of 4.60% notes due 2033, C$300 million of 4.90% notes due 2037 and C$450 million of 5.40% notes due 2056.
- July 29, 2026CPKC reported Q2 2026 results. Revenues rose 13% to C$4.2 billion, and revenue ton-miles rose 4%. Diluted EPS was C$1.15, against C$1.33, because Q2 2025 included a gain on the sale of the stake in the Panama Canal Railway Company. Core adjusted diluted EPS rose 13% to C$1.27.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- July 6, 2026CPKC extended its US$2.2 billion revolving credit facility: the US$1.1 billion two-year tranche now matures on June 25, 2028, and the US$1.1 billion five-year tranche on June 25, 2031.
- April 29, 2026CPKC reported Q1 2026 results. Revenues fell 2% to C$3.7 billion, while revenue ton-miles rose 2%. Diluted EPS was C$0.94, and core adjusted diluted EPS fell 2% to C$1.04, with headwinds of about 4 cents from foreign exchange and 3 cents from fuel prices. On April 28, 2026, the board raised the quarterly dividend by 17.5% to C$0.268 per share.
- January 28, 2026CPKC reported 2025 results. Revenues rose 4% to C$15.1 billion, diluted EPS was C$4.51 and core adjusted diluted EPS rose 8% to C$4.61. For 2026, it guided low double-digit growth in core adjusted diluted EPS and mid-single digit growth in revenue ton-miles. It announced a normal course issuer bid to buy back up to 44.9 million shares from February 2, 2026 to February 1, 2027.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 27, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · cp-20261028
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · cp-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cp-20261028
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · cp-20260630
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · cp-20260729
- 8-KNew material agreementFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KShareholder vote results and Other company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Much of the freight crosses the borders between Canada, the United States and Mexico. Tariffs or other trade restrictions can lower volumes, as in Q1 2026, when revenues fell 2%.
- Fuel is a large cost. Fuel expense rose to C$667 million in Q3 2026 from C$415 million, and higher fuel prices raised the core adjusted operating ratio by 190 basis points.
- The U.S. Surface Transportation Board reviews the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. A combined railway can compete harder for traffic to and from CPKC's network, and CPKC spent C$44 million on advisory costs for its analysis and advocacy in the review in the first nine months of 2026.
- CPKC bought back shares for C$3.43 billion in the first nine months of 2026, partly with commercial paper and new notes. Adjusted net debt was 3.2 times adjusted EBITDA at September 30, 2026.
- Accidents, severe weather and labor disputes can stop trains and raise costs. The FRA-reportable train accident frequency rose to 0.93 in Q1 2026 from 0.38 a year earlier.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- CA$399M
- Debt
- CA$25.8B
- Net debt
- CA$25.4B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.2×
- as the company states it
- Interest cover
- 6.0×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt CA$25.4B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
CPKC funds itself with unsecured notes, commercial paper and equity. At September 30, 2026, total debt was C$25.85 billion: C$22.23 billion of long-term debt and C$3.61 billion due within one year, which includes US$1,535 million (C$2,179 million) of commercial paper. Cash was C$399 million. In the first nine months of 2026, CPKC issued US$600 million of 4.00% notes due 2029 and US$600 million of 5.50% notes due 2056, and on October 6, 2026, it issued C$1.8 billion of notes due 2030 to 2056. The US$2.2 billion revolving credit facility, in two tranches that mature in June 2028 and June 2031, was undrawn and backs the commercial paper programs. The company states adjusted net debt of C$26.42 billion, 3.2 times adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to September 30, 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 (C$4,217 million against C$704 million). Total equity was C$46.76 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, CPKC bought back 28.1 million shares for C$3.43 billion and raised the quarterly dividend to C$0.268 per share. There were 869,554,740 shares outstanding on October 27, 2026.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 0.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of CA$132.62)
- Paid per share
- CA$0.992 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- CA$1.072 (CA$0.268 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 25, 2026, CA$0.268 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | CA$0.37 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CA$0.4378 | |
| 2018 | CA$0.5026 | |
| 2019 | CA$0.628 | |
| 2020 | CA$0.712 | |
| 2021 | CA$0.76 | |
| 2022 | CA$0.76 | |
| 2023 | CA$0.76 | |
| 2024 | CA$0.76 | |
| 2025 | CA$0.874 |
Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 5.5% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 11.3% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Canadian Pacific Kansas City
What does Canadian Pacific Kansas City do?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) is the only single-line railway that links Canada, the United States and Mexico. Canadian Pacific took control of Kansas City Southern (KCS) on April 14, 2023. Its market cap is CA$115B at the current price of CA$132.62.
When does Canadian Pacific Kansas City report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Canadian Pacific Kansas City may report on January 27, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City stock below its intrinsic value?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Canadian Pacific Kansas City?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. CPKC reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Canadian Pacific Kansas City?
Much of the freight crosses the borders between Canada, the United States and Mexico. Fuel is a large cost. The U.S. Surface Transportation Board reviews the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern.
How much debt and cash does Canadian Pacific Kansas City have?
At September 30, 2026, Canadian Pacific Kansas City had CA$25.8B of debt and CA$399M of cash.
Does Canadian Pacific Kansas City pay a dividend?
Yes. Canadian Pacific Kansas City paid CA$0.992 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 0.7% at the current price of CA$132.62. The latest ex-dividend date was September 25, 2026.
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