By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $297.01
- Analysts view
- Analysts Bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 22 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $176B
- Shares of Oct 16, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.2
- Price of Nov 10, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $12.82
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $219.89 – $315.99
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.85
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 2.5M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for Union Pacific's western rail network and the planned Norfolk Southern merger, and STB approval with steady EPS growth through 2027 can earn it.
- Gap
- Can close. The STB comments on November 18, 2026, the Q4 2026 report in January 2027 and the STB decision on the Norfolk Southern merger test whether the premium can be earned.
Company guidance: Reported EPS growth of high-single digit and a capital plan of $3.5 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
Union Pacific runs the Union Pacific Railroad, a freight railroad with 32,889 route miles in 23 western states of the United States. It connects ports on the Pacific Coast and the Gulf Coast with the Midwest, and it has gateways to Mexico and Canada. It carries bulk goods such as coal, grain and chemicals, industrial goods, and containers and trucks for international and domestic shippers. Its main competitor in the West is BNSF Railway.
Revenue was $24.5 billion in 2025 and $20.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026. In July 2025, Union Pacific agreed to buy Norfolk Southern, an eastern railroad, to form the first railroad from coast to coast in the United States. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) must approve the deal.
Thesis
Union Pacific trades at a premium because investors pay for a railroad with few competitors, high margins and steady price increases. It is one of two large railroads in the western United States, and its operating ratio was 59.1% in Q3 2026, the best in the industry by its own measure. Revenue carloads grew 6% in Q3 2026, and diluted EPS rose 16% to $3.49. Investors also pay for the purchase of Norfolk Southern.
The deal can create the first railroad from coast to coast, with single-line service on about 10,000 lanes that now use two railroads. For the premium to be earned, four things must be true. The STB must approve the merger without conditions that remove much of its value. Union Pacific expects the deal to close in the second half of 2027.
EPS must keep growing at the 3-year target of a high-single-digit to low-double-digit rate through 2027. The operating ratio must improve in the core business, although fuel prices raise it now. After the close, the combined company must carry about $20 billion of new debt and still grow. Comments on the merger are due at the STB on November 18, 2026, and responses on February 16, 2027.
The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next earnings test. The premium can shrink if the STB rejects the merger or adds heavy conditions, if freight volumes fall, or if the integration costs more than planned.
Checkpoints
- Nov 18, 2026PendingSTB comments on the merger dueComments with few requests for conditions from large shippers and railroads pass; strong opposition or requests for large divestitures fail.
- Jan 22, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 outlook2026 EPS growth in the high single digits and a 2027 outlook in line with the 3-year EPS target pass; lower volumes or a weaker outlook fail.
- 2027 · est.PendingSTB decision on the Norfolk Southern mergerApproval with conditions that keep most of the expected benefits passes; a rejection or heavy conditions fail.
Recent events
- October 22, 2026Union Pacific reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 15% to $7.2 billion, with 6% more revenue carloads and a higher fuel surcharge. Net income rose 16% to $2.1 billion, and diluted EPS rose 16% to $3.49. The operating ratio was 59.1%; higher fuel prices added 1.4 percentage points. Union Pacific kept its outlook for high-single-digit EPS growth in 2026 and set its 2026 capital plan at $3.5 billion.
- October 16, 2026Union Pacific said that Jennifer Hamann plans to retire as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in early 2027.
- September 18, 2026The STB denied motions from several parties that asked it to dismiss the merger application.
Show 7 older eventsHide older events
- August 18, 2026The STB adopted a procedural schedule for the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger and removed the case from abeyance. Comments are due on November 18, 2026, and responses on February 16, 2027. The STB will set the date of a public hearing later.
- July 23, 2026Union Pacific reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 12% to $6.9 billion, and diluted EPS rose 7% to $3.36. The operating ratio was 59.7%; higher fuel prices added 1.2 percentage points.
- May 28, 2026The STB accepted the revised merger application as complete, but it held the case in abeyance until the railroads gave more information. The railroads completed this information on July 27, 2026.
- April 30, 2026Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed a revised merger application with the STB, after the STB said on January 16, 2026 that the first application was not complete.
- April 23, 2026Union Pacific reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 3% to $6.2 billion, carloads fell 1%, and diluted EPS was $2.87, which includes $36 million of merger costs.
- January 27, 2026Union Pacific reported 2025 results. Revenue was $24.5 billion, net income was $7.1 billion and diluted EPS rose 8% to $11.98. The operating ratio was 59.8%, and return on invested capital was 16.3%.
- December 19, 2025Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed their merger application with the STB. Each Norfolk Southern share will become one Union Pacific share and $88.82 in cash.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 22, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 22, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · unp-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · unp-20261022
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · unp-20261016
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · unp-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · unp-20260723
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · unp-20260514
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · unp-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · unp-20260423
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · unp-20251231
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · unp-20260127
Risks
- The STB must approve the Norfolk Southern merger. Shippers, other railroads and unions can oppose it or ask for conditions. A rejection can cost a termination fee of $2.5 billion in some cases, and heavy conditions can lower the value of the deal.
- The merger needs about $20 billion of cash and about 225 million new shares. New debt makes the balance sheet weaker, and the integration of two large railroads can disrupt service.
- Freight volumes move with the economy, trade and coal demand. Tariffs or a recession can lower carloads. Carloads fell 4% in Q4 2025 and 1% in Q1 2026 before they rose again.
- Fuel costs rose 69% in Q3 2026. The fuel surcharge recovers most of this cost with a delay, but high fuel prices raise the operating ratio.
- A large derailment or a release of hazardous materials can cause large costs and new rules.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $3.1B
- Debt
- $30.3B
- Net debt
- $27.2B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.1×
- EBITDA $13.1B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 8.6×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $2.0B
- undrawn, to May 2031
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $27.2B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
Union Pacific funds itself mainly with long-term notes. Debt was $30.3 billion at September 30, 2026, down from $31.8 billion at December 31, 2025, and $1.3 billion of it is due within one year. Cash is cash and cash equivalents of $2.2 billion and short-term investments of $0.9 billion. EBITDA is adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to September 30, 2026, as the company calculates it. Adjusted debt, which adds operating leases, was 2.4 times adjusted EBITDA. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. The $2.0 billion revolving credit facility runs to May 2031 and was undrawn, and $600 million of the receivables facility was undrawn. Union Pacific paused its buybacks after it agreed to buy Norfolk Southern. It expects to pay about $20 billion in cash for the deal, with new debt and cash from operations.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 1.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $297.01)
- Paid per share
- $5.56 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $5.68 ($1.42 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 45% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 31, 2026, $1.42 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $2.255 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.48 | |
| 2018 | $3.06 | |
| 2019 | $3.70 | |
| 2020 | $3.88 | |
| 2021 | $4.29 | |
| 2022 | $5.08 | |
| 2023 | $5.20 | |
| 2024 | $5.28 | |
| 2025 | $5.44 |
Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 6.4% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 9.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Union Pacific
What does Union Pacific do?
Union Pacific runs the Union Pacific Railroad, a freight railroad with 32,889 route miles in 23 western states of the United States. It connects ports on the Pacific Coast and the Gulf Coast with the Midwest, and it has gateways to Mexico and Canada. Its market cap is $176B at the current price of $297.01.
When does Union Pacific report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Union Pacific may report on January 22, 2027. It last reported results on October 22, 2026.
Is Union Pacific stock below its intrinsic value?
Union Pacific stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Union Pacific?
The latest update is from October 22, 2026. Union Pacific reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Union Pacific?
The STB must approve the Norfolk Southern merger. The merger needs about $20 billion of cash and about 225 million new shares. Freight volumes move with the economy, trade and coal demand.
How much debt and cash does Union Pacific have?
At September 30, 2026, Union Pacific had $30.3B of debt and $3.1B of cash.
Does Union Pacific pay a dividend?
Yes. Union Pacific paid $5.56 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 1.9% at the current price of $297.01. The latest ex-dividend date was August 31, 2026.
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