Japan Tobacco

Japan Tobacco (JT) makes and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products in Japan and in many other countries, and it has a processed food business in Japan. Its Global Flagship Brands are Winston, Camel, MEVIUS and LD. Its reduced-risk products include the Ploom heated tobacco devices and sticks. The tobacco business reports three clusters.

Asia includes Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan. Western Europe includes Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain. EMA includes Turkey, the United States, Romania and Russia. In the first nine months of 2026, EMA gave ¥476.3 billion of the ¥1,005.4 billion of adjusted operating profit of the tobacco business.

In 2025, JT transferred its pharmaceutical business to Shionogi and sold its shares of Torii Pharmaceutical. The company reports in yen under IFRS, and its shares trade on the Prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. JAPAY is an ADR in the United States, and one ADS represents one half of one JT share. Takehiko Tsutsui is its president.

Japan Tobacco trades close to the AI estimate because investors weigh strong pricing and Ploom growth against the possible loss of its Russian business. On November 5, 2026, a Russian presidential decree placed four of the group's Russian manufacturing companies under temporary management. JT says that it is checking the details and cannot yet estimate the effect, and it does not give the profit of the Russian business.

Before the decree, the business was strong: in the first nine months of 2026, adjusted operating profit rose 21.6% to ¥972.4 billion, and JT raised its 2026 forecast to profit of ¥662.0 billion and a dividend of ¥272 per share. For the price to be earned, three things must be true. The loss of profit from Russia must stay limited, or JT must keep some value from the business.

Pricing and Ploom growth in the other markets must keep adjusted operating profit growth near the high single digit target of Business Plan 2026. The yen and tobacco taxes must not cut profit in yen. News on the Russian business and the full-year 2026 results, expected in mid-February 2027, are the next tests.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Oct 29, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results and 2026 forecastProfit growth and a higher 2026 forecast pass; a lower forecast fails.Outcome: Adjusted operating profit rose 21.6% in the first nine months, and JT raised its 2026 forecast for profit to ¥662.0 billion.
2. Dec 2026 · est.Pending

   Effect of the Russian decreeA limited loss of profit, or a sale that keeps some value, passes; a full loss with large write-downs fails.
3. Feb 12, 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 forecastA 2027 forecast with profit growth outside Russia and a stable dividend passes; a lower dividend fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 6, 2026JT announced that a Russian presidential decree, signed on November 5, 2026, placed four of the group's Russian manufacturing companies under temporary management. JT said that it was checking the details, its options and the effect on the group. Before the decree, JT had said that it was studying options for the Russian tobacco business, including a separation from the group.
• October 29, 2026JT reported results for the first nine months of 2026. Revenue rose 13.6% to ¥2,991.4 billion, operating profit rose 24.2% to ¥947.7 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent rose 20.9% to ¥618.9 billion, or ¥348.60 per share. RRP volume rose 31.1% to 13.2 billion sticks. JT raised its 2026 forecast to revenue of ¥3,903.0 billion, adjusted operating profit of ¥1,079.0 billion and profit of ¥662.0 billion. It lowered its free cash flow forecast by ¥55.0 billion to ¥596.0 billion, mainly for the purchase of fine-cut tobacco brands from Scandinavian Tobacco Group.
• February 12, 2026JT announced Business Plan 2026 for the years 2026 to 2028. It expects adjusted operating profit at constant currency to grow at a high single digit rate each year. The dividend for 2025 was ¥234 per share.

• A Russian presidential decree of November 5, 2026 placed four of the group's Russian manufacturing companies under temporary management. JT can lose the profit of the Russian business and record losses on its assets there, and it cannot yet estimate the effect.
• Total demand for cigarettes falls in many markets, such as Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom. Combustibles volume fell 1.0% in the first nine months of 2026, and profit growth depends on price increases.
• Governments can raise tobacco taxes and add rules on products, packs and marketing. Japan raised the tax on heated tobacco in 2026.
• Most profit is earned in other currencies than the yen, and some markets have very high inflation. A strong yen lowers profit in yen, and the ADS price also moves with the yen.
• The Canadian subsidiary JTI-Macdonald pays amounts each year under a settlement of smoking and health lawsuits. Other lawsuits can bring new costs.

JT funds itself with bonds, borrowings, commercial paper and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, bonds and borrowings were ¥1,673.4 billion: ¥147.8 billion current and ¥1,525.6 billion non-current. Read more

Paid per share

$0.00 in the last 12 months (0 payments)

Latest ex-dividend date

June 30, 2025, $0.349 per share

Dividends per share by year

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.