PMTobacco and nicotine products
Philip Morris International
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $193.12
- Analysts view
- Analysts Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 5 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $301B
- Shares of Oct 16, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.2
- Price of Nov 10, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $6.85
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $146.35 – $214.35
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.37
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 4.5M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts that IQOS and ZYN can grow fast enough to offset falling cigarette volumes and high debt, and 2027 guidance that meets PMI's targets can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 gives the 2027 guidance against the 2026 to 2028 targets, a dated check that can close the gap within about a year.
Company guidance: Adjusted diluted EPS of $8.29 to $8.44 and reported diluted EPS of $7.11 to $7.26 for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
Philip Morris International (PMI) sells cigarettes and smoke-free nicotine products outside the United States, and smoke-free products in the United States. Its main cigarette brand is Marlboro. Its main smoke-free products are IQOS heated tobacco devices with their tobacco sticks, and ZYN nicotine pouches, which came with the purchase of Swedish Match. Since 2026, PMI reports three segments: International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles and US.
Altria, a separate company, sells Marlboro cigarettes in the United States. Revenue was more than $40 billion in 2025 and $11.4 billion in Q3 2026. Smoke-free products gave more than 40% of revenue in Q3 2026, and PMI sells them in 110 markets.
Thesis
The market doubts that PMI can grow its smoke-free products fast enough to offset falling cigarette volumes and to reduce its high debt. In Q3 2026, revenue grew 5.5% and adjusted diluted EPS grew 5.4% to $2.36. But heated tobacco unit shipments grew only 1.5%, and US ZYN shipments grew 4.2% after the inventory changes of early 2026. US revenue grew 22.7% in Q3 2026, but US operating companies income fell 3.3%.
PMI guides 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to $8.29 to $8.44, which includes a currency gain of $0.18. Its targets for 2026 to 2028 are organic revenue growth of 6% to 8% a year and adjusted EPS growth of 9% to 11% a year at constant currency, with no share buybacks. Investors fear three things. IQOS growth can slow as its markets mature.
ZYN can lose share as competitors grow in the US pouch market. Debt and the assets in Russia limit how much cash PMI can return in addition to its dividend. For the gap to close, three things must be true. IQOS in-market sales must keep growing near the 7.1% of Q3 2026.
US ZYN shipments and US profit must grow again at a fast rate. PMI must reach its target of net debt near 2.0 times adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the 2027 guidance and the first test against the targets. An FDA decision on the IQOS ILUMA application, which has no date, is a second test.
If the 2027 guidance matches the targets, the gap can close within about one year.
Checkpoints
- Feb 5, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance for adjusted EPS growth of 9% to 11% at constant currency with growing IQOS and ZYN volumes passes; lower guidance or falling US profit fails.
- 2027 · est.PendingFDA decision on IQOS ILUMAAn FDA authorization that lets PMI sell IQOS ILUMA in the United States passes; a denial or a delay of more years fails.
Recent events
- October 21, 2026PMI reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 5.5% to $11.4 billion, or 7.1% on an organic basis, and operating income grew 14.1% to $4.9 billion. Reported diluted EPS fell 4.9% to $2.12, and adjusted diluted EPS grew 5.4% to $2.36. Heated tobacco unit shipments grew 1.5% to 41.5 billion units, and US ZYN shipments grew 4.2% to 3.2 billion pouches. PMI guided 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to $8.29 to $8.44. The quarterly dividend is now $1.60 per share, up 8.8%.
- August 21, 2026The FDA authorized 11 ZYN ULTRA products under the premarket tobacco product application process.
- July 22, 2026PMI reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $11.2 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS grew 15.2% to $2.20. Reported diluted EPS was $1.80, after an impairment charge on its investment in RBH in Canada.
Show 5 older eventsHide older events
- June 30, 2026The FDA authorized 20 ZYN products as modified risk tobacco products.
- June 29, 2026PMI paid back €1.0 billion of the euro term loan from the Swedish Match purchase before its due date. About €1.5 billion of the loan is left, due June 23, 2027.
- May 20, 2026PMI named Massimo Andolina Chief Financial Officer from August 1, 2026, in place of Emmanuel Babeau.
- April 22, 2026PMI reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $10.1 billion, reported diluted EPS was $1.56 and adjusted diluted EPS grew 16% to $1.96. US results were weak because of changes in ZYN inventory.
- February 6, 2026PMI reported 2025 results. Revenue was more than $40 billion, reported diluted EPS was $7.26 and adjusted diluted EPS was $7.54. PMI set targets for 2026 to 2028 of organic revenue growth of 6% to 8%, organic operating income growth of 8% to 10% and adjusted EPS growth of 9% to 11% a year at constant currency, and it changed to three new segments.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 21, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · pm-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · pm-20261021
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · pm-20260918
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · pm-20260908
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · pm-20260908
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · pm-20260824
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · pm-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · pm-20260722
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · pm-20260706
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Cigarettes still give most of the revenue, and their volumes fall each year. Higher taxes, rules on flavors and smoking bans can make the fall faster.
- Smoke-free products need FDA authorization in the United States. The IQOS ILUMA application has been pending since the FDA accepted it in March 2024. Competitors in nicotine pouches also grow, and US profit fell in Q3 2026.
- PMI had $47.6 billion of debt at September 30, 2026, mainly from the Swedish Match purchase, and its targets for 2026 to 2028 include no share buybacks. Higher interest rates on new debt can lower earnings.
- PMI had $5.6 billion of assets in Russia at September 30, 2026, including $3.1 billion of cash, and Russia gave about 7% of revenue. Sanctions or government action can make PMI lose these assets or this income.
- Most sales are outside the United States, so a stronger US dollar lowers reported results. Currency adds $0.18 per share to the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.
- A new Chief Financial Officer started on August 1, 2026. A change in financial policy, such as the return of buybacks or a new purchase, can change the debt plan.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $6.7B
- Debt
- $47.6B
- Net debt
- $40.9B
- Interest cover
- 20×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $6.0B
- undrawn, to September 2028
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $40.9B
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2044.
Credit ratings
- Moody's A2 · positive
- S&P A- · positive
- Fitch A · stable
PMI has high but stable debt. Stockholders' equity was a deficit of $5.9 billion at September 30, 2026, after many years of dividends and past buybacks. Long-term debt had a carrying value of $45.0 billion, of which $3.3 billion was due within one year, and short-term borrowings were $2.5 billion, including $1.9 billion of commercial paper. The rest of the euro term loan from the Swedish Match purchase, $1.7 billion, is due in June 2027. PMI had $6.0 billion of undrawn committed revolving credit, with end dates from September 2028 to January 2031. Operating income was $13.3 billion and net interest expense was $679 million in the first nine months of 2026. PMI expects operating cash flow of about $13.5 billion and capital spending of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion in 2026, and net debt near 2.0 times adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026. It paid $6.9 billion of dividends in the first nine months of 2026 and does not buy back shares.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 3.1% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $193.12)
- Paid per share
- $6.01 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $6.40 ($1.60 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 78% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- October 2, 2026, $1.60 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $4.12 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $4.22 | |
| 2018 | $4.49 | |
| 2019 | $4.62 | |
| 2020 | $4.74 | |
| 2021 | $4.90 | |
| 2022 | $5.04 | |
| 2023 | $5.14 | |
| 2024 | $5.30 | |
| 2025 | $5.64 |
Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 4.4% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 3.9% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Philip Morris International
What does Philip Morris International do?
Philip Morris International (PMI) sells cigarettes and smoke-free nicotine products outside the United States, and smoke-free products in the United States. Its main cigarette brand is Marlboro. Its market cap is $301B at the current price of $193.12.
When does Philip Morris International report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Philip Morris International may report on February 5, 2027. It last reported results on October 21, 2026.
Is Philip Morris International stock below its intrinsic value?
Philip Morris International stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Philip Morris International?
The latest update is from October 21, 2026. PMI reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Philip Morris International?
Cigarettes still give most of the revenue, and their volumes fall each year. Smoke-free products need FDA authorization in the United States. PMI had $47.6 billion of debt at September 30, 2026, mainly from the Swedish Match purchase, and its targets for 2026 to 2028 include no share buybacks.
How much debt and cash does Philip Morris International have?
At September 30, 2026, Philip Morris International had $47.6B of debt and $6.7B of cash.
Does Philip Morris International pay a dividend?
Yes. Philip Morris International paid $6.01 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 3.1% at the current price of $193.12. The latest ex-dividend date was October 2, 2026.
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