Merck & Co.

Merck & Co., known as MSD outside the United States and Canada, develops and sells prescription medicines, vaccines and animal health products. Its largest product is Keytruda, a cancer immunotherapy, with sales of $31.7 billion in 2025, or 49% of total sales. Other main products are the Gardasil vaccines against HPV, Winrevair for pulmonary arterial hypertension, Welireg and Capvaxive.

Animal Health had sales of $6.4 billion in 2025. Total sales were $65.0 billion in 2025, and Merck guides $66.8 billion to $67.3 billion for 2026. From October 2025 to May 2026 it bought Verona Pharma, Cidara Therapeutics and Terns Pharmaceuticals to add new medicines.

The market doubts that Merck can replace the sales of Keytruda, which were 49% of total sales in 2025. Merck expects that biosimilar competition can start in the U.S. in December 2028, that Medicare price setting for Keytruda can start on January 1, 2029, and that exclusivity in Europe ends in 2031. Januvia, Janumet and Bridion already lost U.S. exclusivity in 2026. Merck paid $9.2 billion for Cidara and $6.8 billion for Terns in 2026 to add new drugs, and the charges for these purchases cut 2026 non-GAAP EPS to $2.77 to $2.82.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Patients must move to Keytruda Qlex, the injection under the skin, before biosimilars arrive; its sales were $830 million in Q3 2026. New products such as Winrevair, Capvaxive, Enflonsia and Lipfendra must grow fast enough to fill most of the Keytruda decline. Late-stage programs such as sacituzumab tirumotecan, intismeran autogene and MK-1406 must succeed and get approval.

The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in early February 2027, gives the next test. The full evidence comes from 2027 to 2029, as biosimilars and price setting start. If the launches and trials keep working, the gap can close over the next two to three years.

1. Feb 2, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 sales guidance above 2026 with Keytruda Qlex and new launches rising passes; guidance for lower sales fails.
2. 2027 · est.Pending

   FDA decision on sacituzumab tirumotecanApproval in endometrial cancer under the priority review passes; a rejection or a long delay fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 29, 2026Merck reported Q3 2026 results. Sales grew 5% to $18.1 billion. Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex sales grew 6% to $8.6 billion, with $830 million from Keytruda Qlex, and Winrevair sales grew 93% to $694 million. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.49, including a one-time charge of $0.12 per share for a license agreement with SciBrunch. Merck raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance to sales of $66.8 billion to $67.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.77 to $2.82. The FDA accepted for priority review an application for sacituzumab tirumotecan in endometrial cancer.
• August 24, 2026The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia granted summary judgment for the U.S. government in Merck's lawsuit against the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program of the Inflation Reduction Act.
• August 4, 2026Merck reported Q2 2026 results. Sales grew 5% to $16.6 billion, and Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex sales grew 5% to $8.4 billion. A charge of $2.31 per share for the Terns purchase gave a non-GAAP loss of $0.13 per share. The FDA approved Lipfendra (enlicitide), the first once-daily oral PCSK9 inhibitor, to lower LDL cholesterol.

Last earnings

October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 2, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 4, 2026 · mrk-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 29, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled October 13, 2026 · mrk-20261009
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 7, 2026 · mrk-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 4, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled May 28, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KOther company newsFiled May 22, 2026 · mrk-20260522
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 4, 2026 · mrk-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled April 30, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 24, 2026 · mrk-20251231

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 310158)

• Keytruda gave 49% of sales in 2025. Biosimilar competition can start in the U.S. in December 2028, Merck expects Medicare price setting for it from January 1, 2029, and exclusivity in Europe ends in 2031. Merck expects U.S. Keytruda sales to fall materially after that.
• Merck buys new drugs at high prices. The Cidara and Terns purchases cost $16.0 billion in 2026, and debt rose to $53.8 billion. If these programs fail, the money is lost.
• Gardasil sales fell 39% in 2025 because of low demand in China, and Merck expects the U.S. benefit from public-sector buying patterns in 2026 to mostly reverse in 2027.
• Januvia, Janumet and Bridion lost U.S. exclusivity in 2026. Merck expects to stop U.S. sales of Bridion in 2027.

Merck funds itself mainly with long-term notes. At September 30, 2026, debt was $53.8 billion: $49.7 billion of long-term debt and $4.1 billion of loans payable and current debt. Read more

Dividend yield

2.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $148.76)

Paid per share

$3.40 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$3.40 ($0.85 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

45% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 15, 2026, $0.85 per share

Dividends per share by year

Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 6.0% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 6.8% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.