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FNVGold royalties and streams

Franco-Nevada

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
CA$363.09
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value: AI estimate
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Pricey (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 11 ·
History
Market cap
CA$70B
Shares of Dec 31, 2025
52-week range
CA$265.92 – CA$388.22
To Nov 10, 2026
Beta
0.12
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
331K
3 months, to Nov 10, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors pay more than the AI estimate for Franco-Nevada's debt-free, diversified gold royalties, and only steady growth in ounces with a high gold price and a Cobre Panamá restart can support this price.
Gap
Can close. The Q3 2026 report on November 11, 2026, the 2027 guidance and the Cobre Panamá talks show whether ounces grow as planned at current gold prices.

Company guidance: 2026 GEOs sold of 510,000 to 570,000, tracking towards the upper half of the range (, Q2 2026 results (6-K))

Price history

About

Franco-Nevada Corporation (Franco-Nevada) owns royalties and streams on mines and oil and gas fields. It receives a share of production or revenue, or buys metal at a low fixed or variable price, but it does not operate the mines. Most of its revenue comes from gold, silver and platinum group metals, and the rest from iron ore, other metals, oil and gas. Large assets include Candelaria, Antapaccay, Antamina, Côté Gold and the Western Limb PGM stream.

The Cobre Panamá stream has been mostly halted since the mine closed in late 2023. Revenue was $1,822.8 million in 2025 and $580.9 million in Q2 2026. Franco-Nevada has no debt. The shares trade on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges.

The head office is in Toronto, Ontario. Paul Brink is President and Chief Executive Officer.

Thesis

Franco-Nevada trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for a high-quality way to own gold, with no debt, no mining costs and a large portfolio. Its earnings rose fast with the gold price: Adjusted Net Income was $807.5 million in the first half of 2026, up 82%. So the price depends mainly on the gold price and on growth in gold equivalent ounces (GEOs). For the price to hold, three things must be true.

GEOs must reach the upper half of the 2026 guidance of 510,000 to 570,000 and grow towards the 2030 outlook of 555,000 to 615,000. Franco-Nevada must invest its $4.3 billion of available capital in good new deals. And Cobre Panamá must restart under a new agreement, which could add 150,000 to 175,000 GEOs a year. The Q3 2026 report on November 11, 2026, and talks on Cobre Panamá are the next tests.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Franco-Nevada is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Franco-Nevada's filings. Franco-Nevada reports in U.S. dollars, and the values are in Canadian dollars per share for the TSX listing.

The method is a multiple of adjusted net income per share for 2027, plus the equity investments. The Q2 2026 results and MD&A (6-K, August 11, 2026) give Q2 2026 revenue of $580.9 million from 132,405 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs), an average gold price of $4,517 per ounce, Adjusted Net Income of $349.2 million, or $1.81 per share and 60.1% of revenue, 2026 guidance of 510,000 to 570,000 GEOs at $4,500 gold with results tracking towards the upper half, cash of $1,014.2 million, equity investments of $1,041.2 million, no debt, and 192,873,810 shares at August 11, 2026. The Q4 2025 results (6-K, March 10, 2026) give a 2030 outlook of 555,000 to 615,000 GEOs, without any GEOs from Cobre Panamá. Revenue per GEO was about 97% of the gold price in Q2 2026.

Adjusted net income includes the interest income on the cash, so the estimate adds only the equity investments, $5.40 per share. It uses an exchange rate of 1.4181 Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar, the Bank of Canada rate for November 10, 2026, as an assumption. The Q3 2026 results are due after market close on November 11, 2026, and are not part of this estimate. The GEOs, the gold prices, the margins and the multiples are assumptions.

The low case assumes 530,000 GEOs at $3,500 gold and a margin of 55%, with EPS of $5.13, at 30 times. It gives US$159.30, or C$225.90 per share. The base case assumes 560,000 GEOs at $4,000 gold and a margin of 58%, with EPS of $6.53, at 35 times. It gives US$233.95, or C$331.76 per share.

The high case assumes 600,000 GEOs, with some deliveries from Cobre Panamá, at $4,500 gold and a margin of 61%, with EPS of $8.28, at 38 times. It gives US$320.04, or C$453.85 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is C$335.82 per share.

The value moves with the gold price and the U.S. dollar. Intangible assets and cost advantage are the main sources of the advantage. Many royalty and stream contracts last for the life of the mines, Franco-Nevada pays no mining costs, and its portfolio is large and diversified. But competition for new royalties and streams is strong, and the price of each new deal sets its return.

The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 11, 2026Due today
    Q3 2026 results: GEOs and Cobre Panamá deliveriesGEOs on track for the upper half of 2026 guidance and first Cobre Panamá deliveries pass; a cut in guidance fails.
  2. Mar 2027 · est.Pending
    2026 results, 2027 guidance and five-year outlook2027 GEO guidance above the 2026 result passes; lower guidance fails.
  3. 2027 · est.Pending
    Cobre Panamá talksAn agreement that restarts mining passes; an agreement for closure only, or no agreement, fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • September 30, 2026The Panamanian ministerial commission recommended talks with First Quantum on a new agreement for Cobre Panamá, which would end the arbitrations and allow a project with an orderly closure.
  • September 13, 2026Franco-Nevada agreed to buy an additional gross royalty on the Bullabulling gold project from Minerals 260 for A$170 million, and to subscribe for A$30 million of its shares.
  • August 11, 2026Franco-Nevada reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 57% to $580.9 million, GEOs sold rose 18% to 132,405, and Adjusted Net Income was $349.2 million, or $1.81 per share. It expects 2026 GEOs in the upper half of its guidance.
Show 4 older events
  • June 17, 2026A local court in Burkina Faso said that the stream agreement on the Karma mine is void. Franco-Nevada says that the judgement is not valid and seeks remedies under Ontario law.
  • May 12, 2026Franco-Nevada reported Q1 2026 results.
  • April 7, 2026The Government of Panama approved the processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panamá. Franco-Nevada expects deliveries of about 23,000 gold ounces and 265,000 silver ounces from it.
  • March 10, 2026Franco-Nevada reported record 2025 results, with revenue of $1,822.8 million and Adjusted Net Income of $5.58 per share. It gave a 2030 outlook of 555,000 to 615,000 GEOs, without Cobre Panamá.

Latest news and filings

Next earnings
November 11, 2026, as the company confirmed.
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · fnv-20260630x6k
  • 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · fnv-20251231x40f
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · fnv-20251231x6k
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025Filed · fnv-20250630x6k

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1456346)

Risks

  • Revenue and earnings move with the gold price. The 2026 guidance assumes $4,500 gold, and a lower price reduces earnings quickly.
  • Cobre Panamá is halted except for stockpile processing. The government commission proposes a project with an orderly closure, so a full restart is not certain.
  • Franco-Nevada depends on the operators of the mines. Lower production at Candelaria, Antapaccay or other large assets lowers its GEOs.
  • Governments can challenge contracts or raise taxes, as in Panama and Burkina Faso, where a local court tried to void the Karma stream.
  • Competition for new royalties and streams is strong. High prices for new deals can lower future returns.

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.0B
Debt
$0.0M
Net cash
$1.0B
Credit line
$1.5B
undrawn, to May 2029

Cash against debt

Cash$1.0B
Debt$0.0M

debt covered by cash

Franco-Nevada has no debt. At June 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1,014.2 million, and equity investments, without its long-term investment in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation, were $1,041.2 million.

Dividends

Dividend yield
0.6% (last 12 months, at today’s price of CA$363.09)
Paid per share
CA$2.348 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
CA$2.428 (CA$0.607 × 4 a year)
Latest ex-dividend date
September 10, 2026, CA$0.607 per share

Dividends per share by year

Franco-Nevada dividends per share by year
2016
CA$1.139
2017
CA$0.894
2018
CA$1.554
2019
CA$1.313
2020
CA$1.372
2021
CA$1.451
2022
CA$1.681
2023
CA$1.841
2024
CA$1.976
2025
CA$2.123

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 9.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 14.3% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Franco-Nevada

What does Franco-Nevada do?

Franco-Nevada Corporation (Franco-Nevada) owns royalties and streams on mines and oil and gas fields. It receives a share of production or revenue, or buys metal at a low fixed or variable price, but it does not operate the mines. Its market cap is CA$70B at the current price of CA$363.09.

When does Franco-Nevada report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on November 11, 2026. It last reported results on August 11, 2026.

Is Franco-Nevada stock below its intrinsic value?

Franco-Nevada stock is pricey. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Franco-Nevada?

The latest update is from September 30, 2026. The Panamanian ministerial commission recommended talks with First Quantum on a new agreement for Cobre Panamá, which would end the arbitrations and allow a project with an orderly closure.

What are the main risks for Franco-Nevada?

Revenue and earnings move with the gold price. Cobre Panamá is halted except for stockpile processing. Franco-Nevada depends on the operators of the mines.

How much debt and cash does Franco-Nevada have?

At June 30, 2026, Franco-Nevada had $0.0M of debt and $1.0B of cash.

Does Franco-Nevada pay a dividend?

Yes. Franco-Nevada paid CA$2.348 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 0.6% at the current price of CA$363.09. The latest ex-dividend date was September 10, 2026.

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