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Weight-loss drugs

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs may change what people eat, what they buy and what care they need. These companies sit on one side of that change or the other. Trial results and drug sales reports show how fast the effect is growing.

This is information, not advice (see the disclaimer).

14 companies

  • Deep below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bearish

    The market prices Campbell's for a continued decline, so the gap closes slowly, and only if cost savings and growth at Rao's and Goldfish hold into fiscal 2028.

    Next checkpoint: Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: Snacks trend and guidance (Dec 8, 2026 (estimate))

  • Deep below intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed

    Investors worry that high prices and weight-loss drugs shrink candy volumes, so the gap closes slowly as cocoa costs fall and volumes stop falling, possibly not before 2028.

    Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Jan 29, 2027 (estimate))

  • Far below intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed

    The market doubts that North America can grow profit again after PepsiCo cut its 2026 earnings guidance, so the gap closes slowly if new cost cuts and price increases lift margins without volume losses during 2027.

    Next checkpoint: Update on the North America supply chain and go-to-market review (Q4 2026 (estimate))

  • Insulet

    PODDTop pick

    Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish

    A cut to US Omnipod growth, two Pod corrections and new patch pump rivals hurt trust in Insulet, so growth within the new guidance through early 2027 can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Feb 4, 2027 (estimate))

  • Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish

    The market prices Aptar for lower margins and the drop in emergency medicine sales, and a margin recovery as destocking ends in late 2026 under the new CEO can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 earnings: end of destocking (Jan 29, 2027 (estimate))

  • CVS Health

    CVSTop pick

    Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish

    The market fears that medical costs and pressure on pharmacy benefits will cut CVS's profits again, and steady Aetna margins with lower debt over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: 2027 guidance (Feb 4, 2027 (estimate))

  • Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bearish

    The market prices General Mills for falling volume and lower profits in US packaged food, and stable organic sales with cost savings that protect earnings under the new CEO can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: Q2 fiscal 2027 results: volume and cost savings (Dec 23, 2026 (estimate))

  • Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish

    The market fears that weight loss drugs will shrink demand for sleep apnea therapy, and steady growth in device and mask sales over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: Q2 fiscal 2027 results: growth and guidance (Jan 29, 2027 (estimate))

  • Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bearish

    The market fears that people will drink less spirits for many years, and a return to organic sales growth under a new CEO can close the gap only slowly.

    Next checkpoint: Q2 fiscal 2027 results: organic sales trend (Dec 2, 2026 (estimate))

  • Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish

    Fewer US customers visit McDonald's and the fix costs money now, so US guest counts must turn positive in 2027 for the gap to close.

    Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Feb 4, 2027 (estimate))

  • Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed

    The market fears that Novo is losing the obesity-drug race to Lilly, and a CagriSema approval in Q4 2026 with more Wegovy pill growth can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: FDA decision on CagriSema for obesity (Q4 2026 (estimate))

  • Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed

    The market fears that patent losses and lower US drug prices will shrink Pfizer's revenue, and only steady growth of new medicines and good obesity data over several years can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: 2027 guidance (Dec 2026 (estimate))

  • Roche

    RHHBY

    Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish

    The market doubts that Roche's new medicines can replace sales lost to biosimilars, and good launches such as giredestrant over the next four quarters can close the gap.

    Next checkpoint: FDA decision on giredestrant in early breast cancer (Nov 30, 2026)

  • Far above intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish

    Investors pay a premium for Lilly's fast growth in obesity medicines, and the premium holds only if 2027 volume growth outpaces price cuts and the retatrutide filing stays on time.

    Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance (Jan 29, 2027 (estimate))

Checkpoint record

Scored checkpoints
11
Passed
8
Pass rate
73% (n = 11)

Pass rate counts thesis checkpoints that came true. It is not an investment return. Past results do not predict future results.

Every result is on the checkpoints page.

Picks gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Read the Disclaimer.