These companies earn money or buy parts in China, Taiwan or other places where governments can change the rules. Export limits, sanctions and political tension can cut sales or raise costs. Such events are hard to date, so the market asks for a lower price.
This is information, not advice (see the disclaimer).
Deep below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market sees Gentex as a mirror maker that no longer grows, and only new products that lift revenue faster than vehicle production through 2027 and 2028 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Jan 23, 2027 (estimate))
Deep below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market fears that rival music apps slow Tencent Music's growth while it reports fewer user numbers, and steady membership growth over 2027 can close part of the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 results: membership growth and margins (Nov 17, 2026)
Far below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market treats the AI spending of Alibaba as a cost, and fast Cloud growth can help, but the discount for US-China risk and the VIE structure will probably stay.
Next checkpoint: Fiscal Q2 2027 results: Cloud growth against capital spending (Nov 19, 2026)
Far below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
Higher service costs, a weak China market and a CEO change hold the price down, and stable margins and a strong successor over three to five quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Jan 28, 2027 (estimate))
Far below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
Weak restaurant spending in China and high delivery costs hold the price down, and the discount for US-China risk will probably stay.
Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results: 20,500 stores and refinancing plan (Feb 3, 2027 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices GlobalFoundries as a maker of mature chips that faces price pressure from Chinese foundries, and steady growth in data center products with higher margins and free cash flow can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Groundbreaking of the first new fab in Malta (Dec 2026 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices MGM for weak Las Vegas results and the end of a buyout proposal from its largest shareholder, and higher room rates, stable Macau margins and buybacks over two to three years can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 earnings: Las Vegas recovery and digital losses (Jan 28, 2027 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed
The market prices Mosaic for high sulfur and ammonia costs that stop phosphate production, and lower raw material costs with a restart of the curtailed plants over the next four to eight quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 earnings: production restart (Feb 3, 2027 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
Chinese game rules, US-China tension and doubts about new hits keep a China discount on NetEase, so the gap will probably not close fully even with strong cash and growing games.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 results: games growth and new titles (Nov 19, 2026)
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market doubts that all of Nvidia's demand is organic and now also weighs a board investigation of its CEO, and broad growth, a stable gross margin and a clean investigation can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Fiscal Q3 2027 results: gross margin and customer breadth (Nov 17, 2026)
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices PDD Holdings for lower profits, trade and EU rule risk for Temu and China risk, and steady profit growth with a clear use for its large cash can close part of the gap over several quarters.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 results: profit trend (Nov 18, 2026 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
Strong AI demand and pricing can close the execution part of the gap, but the market will probably keep a discount for Taiwan-China risk.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance (Jan 15, 2027 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market fears that China's antitrust rules cut Trip.com's hotel commissions, and steady domestic growth with fast international growth over 2027 can close the gap slowly.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 results: China hotels under the new rules (Nov 17, 2026 (estimate))
Well below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
Investors doubt that onsemi can grow again after the electric vehicle slowdown and silicon carbide price cuts, so growing revenue, wider margins and a smooth Synaptics deal can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Synaptics shareholder vote (Nov 17, 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
Investors fear that ASML's AI-driven demand is near the top of the chip cycle and that export controls cut China sales, and a growing 2027 outlook can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Jan 14, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market doubts that Amer Sports can keep its growth and margins with a large China business, and results in line with its guidance through early 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 earnings: growth and margin (Nov 17, 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market prices Applied Materials for a peak in chip equipment spending and for China risk, and growth in memory, logic and packaging through fiscal 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook (Nov 12, 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market fears that AI answers keep shrinking Baidu's search advertising, and fast AI cloud growth can help, but the discount for China risk and the VIE structure will probably stay.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 earnings: search decline and AI cloud (Nov 16, 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices HSBC for its dependence on Hong Kong and China and on interest rates, and returns that stay at its targets through 2028 with a CET1 ratio back in its range can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Basel 3.1 start: CET1 benefit (Jan 1, 2027)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market prices JD.com for weak Chinese consumers, food delivery losses and the China discount, and growth again with smaller losses can close part of the gap, but the China discount will probably stay.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 results: revenue and New Businesses losses (Nov 17, 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market prices KLA for a peak in chip equipment spending and for China risk, and steady growth in process control through 2027 with a stable margin can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: U.S. export rule for affiliates of listed parties (Nov 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market prices Lam Research for a peak in chip equipment spending and a rising share of sales to China, and growth in memory and logic in 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: U.S. export rule for affiliates of listed parties (Nov 2026)
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
Weaker Macao margins, a weak Q3 2026 at Marina Bay Sands and high debt hold Las Vegas Sands back, and a recovery in both regions over four to six quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results: Marina Bay Sands and Macao margins (Jan 21, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market fears that MPS's AI server growth can stop fast, and steady growth in all end markets with no import ban from the Vicor case over three to five quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results: AI server revenue and Q1 2027 guidance (Jan 29, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market fears that NXP's 2026 growth is a short car chip restocking, and growth that continues with stable channel inventory over the next two to four quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and Q1 2027 guidance (Jan 27, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed
The market prices Nike for a long turnaround with falling sales in China and its lifestyle brands, and only a return to revenue growth and higher margins from Pace savings can close the gap slowly.
Next checkpoint: Q2 fiscal 2027 results: decline and margins (Dec 17, 2026 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market fears that Chinese rules will cut the Hong Kong and Mainland sales of Prudential, and double-digit growth in 2026 with steady visitor demand can close most of the gap.
Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results (Mar 18, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market prices SK hynix for a memory cycle that has peaked, and high margins in 2027 under its long-term agreements, with HBM4 as the main product, can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results: HBM4 and margins (Jan 27, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices Tesla mostly for robotaxis and robots while its car margins are thin, and only years of growth in autonomy revenue with a margin recovery can close the gap slowly.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 plans (Jan 21, 2027 (estimate))
Below intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
Weak Macau results, high debt and a delayed UAE resort hold the price down, so much of the gap will probably not close before the resort opens in September 2027.
Next checkpoint: Macau December 2026 gaming revenue report (Jan 1, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Mixed
Weak US water heater demand and rising costs hold the stock down after the China sale, and price increases that hold with stable volumes over the next two to four quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance without China (Jan 29, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market doubts that AMD can keep its AI growth against Nvidia, and an on-time MI450 ramp with new large customers and steady margins through 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results: Helios and MI450 ramp (Feb 2, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market doubts that ADI's fast growth and record margins can last past the chip upturn, and steady growth with strong bookings and free cash flow into fiscal 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 fiscal 2026 results and Q1 fiscal 2027 outlook (Nov 24, 2026)
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market doubts that AB InBev can grow profit while beer volumes fall in the United States and China, and steady EBITDA growth with lower debt over the next one to two years can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Feb 11, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market doubts that Arm's data center growth can offset slower smartphone royalties and the cost of its own chips, and a royalty recovery with AGI CPU deliveries in 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q3 fiscal 2027 results: royalty growth (Feb 3, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
After three large trial failures in 2026, the market doubts the 2030 revenue goal, and good trial results with steady growth over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: FY 2026 results and 2027 guidance (Feb 9, 2027)
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market doubts that Cadence can keep its growth and margins as AI changes chip design, and steady growth with a rising margin and paid AI products through 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance (Feb 16, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market doubts that Danaher's slow growth will recover while it absorbs Masimo under a new CEO, and a mid-single-digit core growth rate in 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance (Jan 21, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
Weak US spirits demand, tariffs and high debt hold Diageo back, and the gap can close slowly if the new plan stops the US share loss and cuts leverage by fiscal 2029.
Next checkpoint: Sale of East African Breweries completes (Dec 2026 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
Cost inflation, China and a weak monitoring unit hold GE HealthCare's profit back, and higher margins and cash from its large backlog over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook (Jan 28, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate) · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market doubts that LVMH's fashion and leather goods sales can grow again while demand in China is weak, and a return to growth with a stable margin over four to six quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: 2026 annual results (Jan 27, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices Rio Tinto for lower iron ore prices as new supply arrives, and steady costs, more copper and rising free cash flow as projects finish can close the gap slowly over two to three years.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 operations review: Simandou and costs (Jan 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Very bullish
The market worries about the debt from the Ansys deal and about China export rules, and falling debt with no new export shock over three to five quarters can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings: full-year result and Ansys integration (Dec 9, 2026 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices Texas Instruments for a chip upturn that can end and for the Silicon Labs debt, and steady revenue with low capital spending and a deal close in 2027 can close the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q4 2026 results and Q1 2027 outlook (Jan 26, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Bullish
The market prices Toyota for falling profit, US tariffs and the move to new technologies, and results on track for its raised forecast with steady buybacks can close the gap over three to six quarters.
Next checkpoint: Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings: the raised forecast (Feb 5, 2027 (estimate))
Close to intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
The market prices Vipshop for falling sales in a weak Chinese consumer market, and a return to revenue growth in 2027 with steady margins can close part of the gap.
Next checkpoint: Q3 2026 earnings: revenue against guidance (Nov 25, 2026 (estimate))
Far above intrinsic value · Analysts: Leaning bullish
Investors pay a premium for Apple's steady cash flow and Services growth, and the premium holds only if margins stay firm as memory costs rise and courts leave its Services profit intact.
Next checkpoint: Q1 fiscal 2027 results: margin and iPhone cycle (Feb 2, 2027 (estimate))
Pass rate counts thesis checkpoints that came true. It is not an investment return. Past results do not predict future results.
Every result is on the checkpoints page.
Picks gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Read the Disclaimer.