AMDSemiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $508.58
- Analysts view
- Analysts Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 2 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $834B
- Shares of Oct 28, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 110.3
- Price of Nov 10, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $4.61
- 12 months to Sep 26, 2026
- 52-week range
- $188.22 – $658.52
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 2.49
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 22M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts that AMD can keep its AI growth against Nvidia, and an on-time MI450 ramp with new large customers and steady margins through 2027 can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 and the first gigawatt of MI450 deliveries to OpenAI and Meta in 2027 are dated checks that can close the gap within about two years.
Company guidance: Revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, and non-GAAP gross margin of about 55% for Q4 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
AMD designs processors and accelerators and uses outside foundries, mainly TSMC, to make them. It has three segments. Data Center sells EPYC server CPUs, Instinct GPUs for AI, Helios rack-scale systems and networking products; its revenue was $8.5 billion in Q3 2026. Client and Gaming sells Ryzen PC processors, Radeon graphics and custom chips for game consoles; its revenue was $3.7 billion.
Embedded sells adaptive chips from the former Xilinx and embedded processors to industrial, automotive, communications and defense customers; its revenue was $1.1 billion. Total revenue was $34.6 billion in 2025 and $13.4 billion in Q3 2026. AMD and Intel are the two main makers of x86 processors. OpenAI and Meta each signed agreements to buy AMD Instinct GPUs and received warrants for AMD shares.
Thesis
The market doubts that AMD can keep its fast AI data center growth for many years against Nvidia. Data Center revenue grew 97% in Q3 2026, and AMD guides Q4 2026 revenue to about $17 billion, a growth of about 66%. OpenAI and Meta each committed to buy one gigawatt of Instinct GPUs, and their warrants vest fully only at six gigawatts each. AMD set targets at its November 2025 Financial Analyst Day for revenue growth above 35% a year and non-GAAP EPS above $20 in three to five years, as press reports give them.
Investors fear three things. Nvidia and its CUDA software can keep most of the AI accelerator market. GPU sales depend on two large buyers, OpenAI and Meta. The customer warrants and stock pay dilute shareholders.
For the gap to close, three things must be true. The MI450 and Helios ramp must deliver the first gigawatt to OpenAI and Meta on time in 2027, with a non-GAAP gross margin near 55% or higher. More large customers must buy Instinct GPUs, so that sales do not depend on two buyers. EPYC must keep taking share in servers as AI agents need more CPUs.
The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the first test. If deliveries stay on time and new customers sign, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
Checkpoints
- Feb 2, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results: Helios and MI450 rampRevenue at or above about $17 billion with a non-GAAP gross margin near 55% and a strong Q1 2027 guidance pass; a miss on revenue or a lower gross margin fail.
- 2027 · est.PendingFirst gigawatt of Instinct GPUs to OpenAI and MetaDelivery of the first gigawatt to each customer and new large Instinct customers pass; delays or no new customers fail.
Recent events
- November 3, 2026AMD reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 45% to a record $13.4 billion, and Data Center revenue grew 97% to $8.5 billion on Instinct MI450 and EPYC sales. Gaming revenue fell 40%. GAAP EPS was $1.46, after a $1.1 billion non-cash charge for the change in fair value of customer warrants, and non-GAAP EPS was $2.09. AMD guided Q4 2026 revenue to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, with a non-GAAP gross margin of about 55%.
- September 26, 2026AMD agreed to buy World Labs, a model research company, for about $8.2 billion, to be paid in AMD shares. In August 2026, it agreed to buy Taalas, a maker of inference chips, in a cash and stock deal valued at about $2.9 billion, including up to about $1.4 billion of contingent payments. AMD expects both deals to close in Q4 2026.
- August 13, 2026AMD sold $4.75 billion of senior notes due 2029, 2031, 2033 and 2036.
Show 5 older eventsHide older events
- August 4, 2026AMD reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $11.5 billion, and Data Center revenue grew 107% to $6.7 billion. GAAP EPS was $1.38 and non-GAAP EPS was $1.66.
- May 13, 2026AMD signed a new five-year $5.0 billion revolving credit facility to replace its $3.0 billion facility.
- May 5, 2026AMD reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $10.3 billion, and Data Center revenue grew 57% to $5.8 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.37.
- February 23, 2026AMD issued Meta a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01 per share. Meta committed to buy one gigawatt of Instinct GPUs. The warrant vests in steps up to six gigawatts of purchases, and the last step needs an AMD stock price of $600.
- February 3, 2026AMD reported 2025 results. Revenue grew to a record $34.6 billion, GAAP EPS was $2.65 and non-GAAP EPS was $4.17.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 2, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026Filed · amd-20260926
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · amd-20261103
- 8-KCurrent reportFiled · amd-20260926
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · amd-20260817
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026Filed · amd-20260627
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · amd-20260804
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · amd-20260626
- 8-KNew material agreement and End of a material agreementFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 28, 2026Filed · amd-20260328
Risks
- Nvidia leads the market for AI accelerators, and its CUDA software is widely used. If MI450 and later GPUs do not win more customers, Data Center growth can slow.
- The warrants to OpenAI and Meta can each give up to 160 million shares at $0.01, about 20% of the 1,640 million shares outstanding together. The shares vest only with GPU purchases and stock price targets up to $600, but they dilute shareholders when they vest. Changes in their fair value also move GAAP earnings.
- Sales of Instinct GPUs depend on a few large buyers. A delay of their data center plans, or a slower MI450 ramp, can lower revenue in a quarter.
- Export rules can limit sales of AI chips to China and other countries. In 2025, U.S. export rules on AI chips for China caused inventory charges at AMD.
- AMD depends on TSMC for its most advanced chips and on memory makers for HBM. Supply limits or higher memory prices can limit shipments or lower margins.
- The World Labs and Taalas purchases cost about $11 billion in total and add new kinds of businesses. If they do not add value, the shares and cash spent on them are lost to shareholders.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $15.8B
- Debt
- $7.1B
- Net cash
- $8.7B
- Credit line
- $5.0B
- undrawn, to May 2031
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2052.
AMD has more cash than debt. At September 26, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $7.40 billion and short-term investments were $8.37 billion, for $15.78 billion. Debt principal was $7.13 billion of senior notes due from 2028 to 2052, with a carrying value of $7.08 billion and nothing due within one year; AMD added $4.75 billion of notes in August 2026. It had no commercial paper outstanding and no borrowings under its $5.0 billion revolving credit facility of May 2026. Operating cash flow was $6.52 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and capital spending was $1.85 billion. Inventories rose to $11.46 billion from $7.92 billion at the end of 2025 as AMD built Helios and MI450 supply. A warrant liability of $1.2 billion for customer warrants is in other long-term liabilities. The World Labs purchase is paid in shares, and the Taalas purchase uses cash and shares.
Dividends
Advanced Micro Devices does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Advanced Micro Devices
What does Advanced Micro Devices do?
AMD designs processors and accelerators and uses outside foundries, mainly TSMC, to make them. It has three segments. Its market cap is $834B at the current price of $508.58.
When does Advanced Micro Devices report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Advanced Micro Devices may report on February 2, 2027. It last reported results on November 3, 2026.
Is Advanced Micro Devices stock below its intrinsic value?
Advanced Micro Devices stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Advanced Micro Devices?
The latest update is from November 3, 2026. AMD reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Advanced Micro Devices?
Nvidia leads the market for AI accelerators, and its CUDA software is widely used. The warrants to OpenAI and Meta can each give up to 160 million shares at $0.01, about 20% of the 1,640 million shares outstanding together. Sales of Instinct GPUs depend on a few large buyers.
How much debt and cash does Advanced Micro Devices have?
At September 26, 2026, Advanced Micro Devices had $7.1B of debt and $15.8B of cash.
Does Advanced Micro Devices pay a dividend?
No. Advanced Micro Devices does not pay a dividend.
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