By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $91.02
- Intrinsic value
- Intrinsic value: AI estimate
- Analysts view
- Analysts Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 27 · · estimated
- 52-week range
- $82.29 – $152.95
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 1.11
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 585K
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
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In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts that LVMH's fashion and leather goods sales can grow again while demand in China is weak, and a return to growth with a stable margin over four to six quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The 2026 annual results, expected in late January 2027, and the Q1 2027 revenue in April 2027 show whether Fashion & Leather Goods returns to growth.
Price history
About
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a luxury goods group based in Paris. It has five business groups: Wines & Spirits (such as Moët & Chandon and Hennessy), Fashion & Leather Goods (such as Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior and Loro Piana), Perfumes & Cosmetics, Watches & Jewelry (such as Tiffany & Co. and Bvlgari) and Selective Retailing (Sephora and DFS). Fashion & Leather Goods gave about 46% of revenue and most of the profit in the first nine months of 2026. Revenue was €80.8 billion in 2025 and €57.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026.
A press report of a February 2026 filing says that the Arnault family group holds about 50% of the capital and about 66% of the voting rights. LVMH reports in euros, and its shares trade on Euronext Paris. LVMUY is an American depositary share (ADS) that trades over the counter in the United States, and five ADS are one LVMH share.
Thesis
The market doubts that LVMH can return to growth in Fashion & Leather Goods, its largest and most profitable business group. Organic revenue of this group fell 5% in Q3 2026, after a rise of 1% in Q2, because demand in China was weaker. Its profit from recurring operations fell 7% in H1 2026. Group revenue fell 3% on a reported basis in H1 2026, mainly because of currency changes, and the conflict in the Middle East cut organic growth by about 1% in Q1 2026.
Other business groups grew in Q3 2026: organic revenue rose 6% at Watches & Jewelry and at Wines & Spirits, and 8% at Selective Retailing. The intrinsic value on this page is an AI estimate from LVMH's own results. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Fashion & Leather Goods must return to organic growth as demand in China becomes stable and new Dior designs sell.
The margin of profit from recurring operations must stay near the 22.5% of H1 2026 while LVMH sells DFS businesses and Marc Jacobs. Net profit must grow again from the €10.9 billion of 2025. The 2026 annual results, expected in late January 2027, give the next test, and Q1 2027 revenue in April 2027 shows the trend in China. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
The main reason it may not close is a long slowdown of luxury spending in China.
Valuation
AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made
Show the method
The intrinsic value on this page for LVMH is an AI estimate from November 9, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from LVMH's own results releases. The method is a multiple of 2027 net profit, Group share, divided by the number of shares and converted to one American depositary share (ADS).
The 2025 results (January 27, 2026) give net profit, Group share, of €10,878 million, profit from recurring operations of €17,755 million, a margin of 22.0%, and operating free cash flow of €11,333 million. The H1 2026 results (July 27, 2026) give net profit, Group share, of €5,697 million, the same as in H1 2025, a margin of 22.5% and net financial debt of €8,245 million. The Q3 2026 release (October 12, 2026) gives organic revenue growth of 2% for the first nine months, with a fall of 5% in Fashion & Leather Goods in Q3. Net profit is after interest, so the estimate makes no further debt adjustment.
The estimate assumes about 497.7 million shares, from a share capital of €149,306,082 and a par value of €0.30. Five ADS are one LVMH share, and the estimate uses 1.1168 US dollars per euro, the market rate of November 9, 2026. The net profit, the multiples, the share count and the exchange rate are assumptions. The low case assumes 2027 net profit of €9.5 billion, or €19.09 per share, at 17 times, for €324.50 per share or $72.48 per ADS.
Demand in China stays weak and currencies stay unfavorable in this case. The base case assumes €11.0 billion, or €22.10 per share, at 21 times, for €464.15 per share or $103.67 per ADS. The high case assumes €12.5 billion, or €25.12 per share, at 24 times, for €602.79 per share or $134.64 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%.
The weighted intrinsic value is $103.62 per ADS. How fast Fashion & Leather Goods returns to growth causes most of the spread between the cases. Intangible assets are the main source. Brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët & Chandon, Hennessy, Tiffany & Co. and Bvlgari have kept their pricing power for many decades, and LVMH kept a margin of profit from recurring operations of 22.0% in 2025, a year when revenue fell.
It owns its stores and controls the distribution of its main brands. Switching costs and network effects do not apply, and demand moves with the economy. These facts support an advantage of 20 years or more.
Checkpoints
- Jan 27, 2027 · est.Pending2026 annual resultsA Q4 2026 return to organic growth in Fashion & Leather Goods and a 2026 margin near 22% pass; another organic decline in Fashion & Leather Goods or a lower margin fail.
- Apr 2027 · est.PendingQ1 2027 revenue: China and Fashion & Leather GoodsOrganic growth in Fashion & Leather Goods and a stable trend in China pass; a further organic decline in Fashion & Leather Goods fails.
Recent events
- October 12, 2026LVMH reported Q3 2026 revenue of €18.50 billion, with organic growth of 1%. Revenue for the first nine months was €57.15 billion, down 2% on a reported basis and up 2% on an organic basis. Fashion & Leather Goods fell 5% on an organic basis in Q3 because the environment in China was less buoyant, while the United States, Europe and Japan grew. Watches & Jewelry and Wines & Spirits grew 6%, and Selective Retailing grew 8%. LVMH said that it sold most of the DFS businesses.
- September 1, 2026LVMH sold the Marc Jacobs fashion brand to WHP Global.
- July 27, 2026LVMH reported H1 2026 results. Revenue was €38.64 billion, down 3% on a reported basis and up 2% on an organic basis, and Q2 organic growth was 3%. Profit from recurring operations fell 4% to €8.69 billion, a margin of 22.5%, and net profit, Group share, was €5.70 billion, the same as a year earlier. Operating free cash flow was €4.10 billion, and net financial debt fell 19% to €8.25 billion. LVMH set an interim dividend of €5.50 per share, payable on December 3, 2026. DFS agreed to sell its Greater China businesses and other units.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- April 13, 2026LVMH reported Q1 2026 revenue of €19.12 billion, with organic growth of 1%. The conflict in the Middle East cut organic growth by about 1%, and currency changes cut reported revenue by about 7%. Fashion & Leather Goods fell 2% on an organic basis, and Watches & Jewelry grew 7%.
- January 27, 2026LVMH reported 2025 results. Revenue was €80.81 billion, down 1% on an organic basis. Profit from recurring operations fell 9% to €17.76 billion, a margin of 22.0%, and net profit, Group share, fell 13% to €10.88 billion. Operating free cash flow rose 8% to €11.33 billion. LVMH proposed a dividend of €13 per share for 2025, the same as for 2024.
Risks
- Demand for luxury goods in China fell in 2026, and Fashion & Leather Goods revenue fell 5% on an organic basis in Q3 2026. If Chinese buyers spend less for a long time, revenue and profit of the largest business group can keep falling.
- LVMH reports in euros but sells in many currencies. Currency changes cut nine-month 2026 revenue by about 3%. The ADS price in U.S. dollars also moves with the euro.
- Luxury demand depends on the economy, tourism and world events. The conflict in the Middle East cut organic growth by about 1% in Q1 2026.
- The Arnault family group controls the company, so other shareholders have little influence on strategy, pay and deals.
Balance sheet
LVMH has low debt for its size. All amounts are in euros. Net financial debt was €8,245 million at June 30, 2026, down 19% from €10,176 million a year earlier. Total equity was €69,694 million, so net financial debt was about 12% of equity (a calculation from the release figures). At December 31, 2025, the ratio was 9.9%. Operating free cash flow was €4,100 million in H1 2026 and €11,333 million in 2025. LVMH paid a dividend of €13 per share for 2025, and it set an interim dividend of €5.50 per share for 2026, payable on December 3, 2026. The sales of DFS businesses and Marc Jacobs in 2026 bring in cash. The H1 release does not give the cash and gross debt amounts.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 1.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $91.02)
- Paid per share
- $1.737 in the last 12 months (1 payment)
- Current annual rate
- $3.474 ($1.737 × 2 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- April 27, 2026, $1.737 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.799 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.939 | |
| 2018 | $1.293 | |
| 2019 | $1.392 | |
| 2020 | $2.05 | |
| 2021 | $1.634 | |
| 2022 | $2.575 | |
| 2023 | $2.682 | |
| 2024 | $2.767 | |
| 2025 | $1.701 |
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about LVMH
What does LVMH do?
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a luxury goods group based in Paris.
When does LVMH report earnings next?
This is an estimate: LVMH may report on January 27, 2027. It last reported results on July 27, 2026.
Is LVMH stock below its intrinsic value?
LVMH stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at LVMH?
The latest update is from October 12, 2026. LVMH reported Q3 2026 revenue of €18.50 billion, with organic growth of 1%.
What are the main risks for LVMH?
Demand for luxury goods in China fell in 2026, and Fashion & Leather Goods revenue fell 5% on an organic basis in Q3 2026. LVMH reports in euros but sells in many currencies. Luxury demand depends on the economy, tourism and world events.
How much debt and cash does LVMH have?
LVMH has low debt for its size. This is as of June 30, 2026.
Does LVMH pay a dividend?
Yes. LVMH paid $1.737 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 1.9% at the current price of $91.02. The latest ex-dividend date was April 27, 2026.
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