KDPBeverages and coffee
Keurig Dr Pepper
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $37.59
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 3 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $51B
- Shares of Nov 5, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 33.9
- Price of Nov 11, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $1.11
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $24.88 – $37.89
- To Nov 10, 2026
- Beta
- 0.36
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 13M
- 3 months, to Nov 10, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Keurig Dr Pepper's price already includes lower debt after the JDE Peet's purchase and a clean split in two, and only a smooth separation with falling debt can support this price.
- Gap
- Can close. The separation into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co., targeted for early 2027, and the Q4 2026 report show whether debt falls and both companies stand alone.
Company guidance: 2026 net sales of $25.9 to $26.4 billion and constant currency adjusted EPS growth in a low-double-digit range (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) sells soft drinks and coffee. Its U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment owns brands such as Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W, Snapple, Mott's, GHOST and Core Hydration. Its U.S.
Coffee segment sells Keurig single-serve brewers and pods. KDP bought JDE Peet's, which owns coffee brands such as Jacobs, L'OR and Peet's, on April 1, 2026. Its KDP International segment sells beverages in Canada, Mexico and other markets. Net sales were $7.34 billion in Q3 2026 and $16.6 billion in 2025, before JDE Peet's.
KDP plans to separate into two public companies, Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co., in early 2027. The shares trade on the Nasdaq. The head offices are in Frisco, Texas, and Burlington, Massachusetts. Tim Cofer is Chief Executive Officer.
Thesis
KDP's price already includes lower debt and a clean split in two, after KDP took on much debt to buy JDE Peet's. U.S. Refreshment Beverages grows fast, with net sales up 10.9% in Q3 2026, but U.S.
Coffee has had price cuts, and net debt is 4.1 times pro forma Adjusted EBITDA. For the price to hold, three things must be true. KDP must reach its 2026 guidance of low-double-digit Adjusted EPS growth and the planned cost savings from JDE Peet's.
It must reduce debt with free cash flow and asset sales, such as the Chobani stake. And the separation into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co., targeted for early 2027, must leave both companies with investment-grade balance sheets. The Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027, and the separation are the next tests.
Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results and 2026 guidanceReaffirmed 2026 guidance passes; a cut fails.Outcome: KDP reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, and Adjusted diluted EPS rose 22.2% to $0.66.
- Feb 3, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 outlook2026 Adjusted EPS growth in the low double digits and lower leverage pass; a miss fails.
- Q1 2027 · est.PendingSeparation into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co.A separation in early 2027 with investment-grade ratings for both companies passes; a delay or a rating below investment grade fails.
Recent events
- November 3, 2026KDP reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 70.6% to $7.34 billion with JDE Peet's, and legacy KDP net sales grew 8.6%. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 22.2% to $0.66. KDP reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.
- November 3, 2026Russ Torres joined KDP as Chief Executive Officer of the coffee business. He will lead Global Coffee Co. after the separation, which is targeted for early 2027.
- September 28, 2026KDP completed the sale of its stake in Chobani for $800 million, $400 million in cash and a $400 million note due December 26, 2026, and the sale of its Allentown facilities for $125 million. It uses the proceeds to reduce debt.
Show 6 older eventsHide older events
- August 6, 2026KDP reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales rose 75.6% to $7.31 billion, and Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.57. KDP reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.
- April 23, 2026KDP reported Q1 2026 results and reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.
- April 1, 2026KDP completed its purchase of JDE Peet's.
- March 26, 2026KDP's subsidiary Maple issued notes of $2.55 billion to fund part of the JDE Peet's purchase.
- February 24, 2026KDP reported 2025 results. Net sales rose 8.2% to $16.6 billion, and Adjusted diluted EPS rose 7.3% to $2.05.
- February 23, 2026KDP increased the convertible preferred equity investment co-led by Apollo and KKR to $4.5 billion, from $3 billion, and no longer considers a partial IPO of Beverage Co.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · kdp-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · kdp-20260928
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · kdp-20260916
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · kdp-20260828
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · kdp-20260810
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · kdp-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · kdp-20260622
Risks
- Debt principal was $29,235 million at September 30, 2026, 4.1 times pro forma Adjusted EBITDA. Moody's and S&P downgraded KDP to Baa3 and BBB-, the lowest investment-grade ratings. A further downgrade would raise borrowing costs.
- The separation into two companies is complex and costly. Delays, extra costs or weak results in one company can lower the total value.
- In U.S. Coffee, net price realization fell 4.2% in Q3 2026. Green coffee costs and competition from private-label pods can lower margins.
- The $4,500 million of convertible preferred stock converts at $37.25 per share, which can add new shares, and it takes part of the earnings.
- Mexico's special tax on sweetened drinks (IEPS) increased costs in KDP International.
- Tariffs on imported goods can raise costs. KDP has claimed refunds of tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated, but more tariffs can follow.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.3B
- Debt
- $29.2B
- Net debt
- $27.9B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 4.1×
- EBITDA $6.8B, last 12 months
- Credit line
- $4.3B
- undrawn, to March 2030
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $27.9B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
Credit ratings
- Moody's Baa3 · stable
- S&P BBB- · stable
KDP funds its business with senior notes, commercial paper, a term loan and convertible preferred stock. At September 30, 2026, debt principal was $29,235 million: $24,805 million of senior notes, $1,242 million of commercial paper and $3,188 million under the delayed draw term loan. Short-term borrowings and the current portion of long-term debt were $7,270 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $1,290 million. Pro forma Adjusted EBITDA for the last twelve months was $6,822 million, so the management leverage ratio was 4.1 times. The $4,300 million revolving credit facility, which matures in March 2030, was undrawn. KDP also has $4,500 million of convertible preferred stock. Moody's rates KDP Baa3 and S&P BBB-, both with a stable outlook since March 10, 2026. The guarantees by KDP of the JDE Peet's notes and the Maple notes end at the separation. At November 5, 2026, there were 1,360,948,350 shares. The quarterly dividend is $0.23 per share.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 2.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $37.59)
- Paid per share
- $0.92 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.92 ($0.23 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 60% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 28, 2026, $0.23 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $2.12 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.32 | |
| 2018 | $0.73 | |
| 2019 | $0.60 | |
| 2020 | $0.60 | |
| 2021 | $0.676 | |
| 2022 | $0.764 | |
| 2023 | $0.815 | |
| 2024 | $0.875 | |
| 2025 | $0.92 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 8.9% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 7.1% a year.
One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 10, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Keurig Dr Pepper
What does Keurig Dr Pepper do?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) sells soft drinks and coffee. Its U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment owns brands such as Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W, Snapple, Mott's, GHOST and Core Hydration. Its market cap is $51B at the current price of $37.59.
When does Keurig Dr Pepper report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Keurig Dr Pepper may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on November 3, 2026.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper stock below its intrinsic value?
Keurig Dr Pepper stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Keurig Dr Pepper?
The latest update is from November 3, 2026. KDP reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Keurig Dr Pepper?
Debt principal was $29,235 million at September 30, 2026, 4.1 times pro forma Adjusted EBITDA. The separation into two companies is complex and costly. In U.S. Coffee, net price realization fell 4.2% in Q3 2026.
How much debt and cash does Keurig Dr Pepper have?
At September 30, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper had $29.2B of debt and $1.3B of cash.
Does Keurig Dr Pepper pay a dividend?
Yes. Keurig Dr Pepper paid $0.92 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 2.4% at the current price of $37.59. The latest ex-dividend date was September 28, 2026.
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