Copart

Copart runs online auctions for wrecked and total-loss vehicles. Insurance companies supplied 79% of the units Copart sold in fiscal 2026. Buyers bid on the cars, mostly to dismantle them for parts or to export them.

Copart has 286 yards in 11 countries, and it owns much of the land under them. This land, plus long-term local permits, is hard for a new competitor to copy.

Copart trades at a discount because one large insurance customer moved its business to rival RB Global. The market fears that this is the start of a bigger shift and that the yard network is easier to switch away from than it looked. U.S. units fell 5.7% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and operating income fell faster than revenue. The change of CEO adds to the uncertainty: Jeff Liaw left on July 31, 2026, and Jay Adair, the previous CEO, returned.

The $1.9 billion cash purchase of ACV Auctions adds integration risk. Copart expects ACV to have no effect on earnings per share in the first full year and to add to them from fiscal 2028. For the gap to close, U.S. insurance unit volume must become stable once the lost customer is in the comparison base, from early 2027. Copart said that without this one customer, its U.S. insurance assignments grew 2.3% in the fourth quarter, so other insurers must keep that growth.

The U.S. antitrust waiting period for the ACV deal ended on October 13, 2026. The deal must now close, and ACV must not add large losses. The next report, expected around November 19, 2026, shows the first quarter of volume under Adair. A clear answer on volume takes two to four quarters, to the fiscal 2027 results in September 2027.

1. Oct 7, 2026Passed

   ACV tender offer expires after extensionA majority of ACV shares tendered by 5:00 p.m. ET passes; another extension because fewer than half of shares are tendered fails or delays the deal.Outcome: 52.84% of ACV shares were tendered, and Copart extended the offer to October 15 only to wait for the end of the antitrust waiting period.
2. Oct 13, 2026Passed

   US antitrust waiting period for ACV deal endsThe waiting period ends without a second request from regulators passes; a second request, which delays closing into 2027, fails.Outcome: The waiting period ended at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 13, 2026, without a second request from regulators.
3. Oct 15, 2026Overdue by 4 days

   ACV tender offer expires after second extensionCopart accepts the tendered shares and the deal closes passes; another extension or a failed offer fails.
4. Nov 19, 2026 · est.Pending

   Q1 FY2027 results: unit volume and operating marginStable US insurance unit volume outside the lost customer and a smaller fall in operating margin pass; wider volume loss or a further margin drop fails.
5. Dec 2026 · est.Pending

   ACV Auctions acquisition closesClosing by the end of calendar 2026 with a clear integration plan passes; a delay fails.
6. Sep 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 FY2027 results after the customer loss is in the baseYear-over-year insurance unit volume that is flat or growing passes; continued volume loss after the lost contract laps fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Copart has no borrowings, and it can pay for the ACV Auctions deal from cash and stay debt-free. The deal costs about $1.9 billion in cash, with no financing condition, but net cash and interest income will fall after it closes. Read more

• A large insurance customer moved business to Copart's main competitor, RB Global, and the effect started to show in January 2026. Copart does not name the customer. If Copart keeps losing volume after this loss is in the comparison base, this was not one lost contract. It is a sign that the business is easier to switch away from than the moat rating assumes.
• The ACV Auctions deal adds integration risk. ACV loses money today. Copart says that the deal will not add to earnings per share before fiscal year 2028. The U.S. antitrust waiting period ended on October 13, 2026, so the main regulatory risk to the closing is gone.
• Costs grow faster than revenue now. In fiscal 2026, revenue grew 0.4% and operating income fell 2.6%. If this continues, profit keeps falling even while revenue grows.
• Since October 2023, the U.S. Department of Justice has investigated Copart about anti-money-laundering controls. The fiscal 2026 annual report still describes this investigation.

• October 14, 2026Copart said that the U.S. antitrust waiting period for its ACV Auctions deal ended at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 13, 2026. Regulators did not ask for more information. The tender offer still needs a majority of ACV shares tendered at its expiry, at 5:00 p.m. ET on October 15, 2026.
• October 8, 2026Copart extended its tender offer for ACV Auctions a second time, to 5:00 p.m. ET on October 15, 2026. At the October 7 expiry, 52.84% of ACV shares were tendered, which is more than the majority the offer needs. The reason Copart gave for the extension is to let the U.S. antitrust waiting period end on October 13.
• October 1, 2026Copart extended its tender offer for ACV Auctions to October 7, 2026. Copart withdrew and refiled its U.S. antitrust form on September 28 to give regulators more time. About 47.8% of ACV shares were tendered by September 30. ACV shareholders filed three lawsuits about the offer's disclosures in September.