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TLGPYTelecommunications and mobile services

Telstra

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$17.43
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value from an AI estimate
Analysts view
Very bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 18 ·
History
Market cap
$39B
Shares of Jun 30, 2026
Yield at current rate
4.3%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
4.3%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
52-week range
$15.65 – $19.96
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.48
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
84K
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

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In short

Thesis
The market prices Telstra close to the AI estimate as a mature telecom with heavy spending, more debt and outage risk, and only cash earnings growth toward its FY30 plan with no new outages can keep it there.
Gap
Slow. Only several years of cash earnings growth, with the Aura Network contracts turning into revenue, can lift earnings toward the price.

Company guidance: FY27 underlying EBITDAaL A$8.5 to A$8.8 billion; Cash EBIT A$4.75 to A$4.95 billion; BAU capex A$3.35 to A$3.65 billion (, FY26 results market release (ASX))

Price history

About

Telstra Group Limited (Telstra) is an Australian telecommunications company. It sells mobile, fixed broadband and enterprise connectivity services, and its infrastructure business owns mobile towers, fiber and subsea cables. Telstra reports in Australian dollars for years that end on June 30. In FY26 (the year to June 30, 2026), total income was A$23,405 million, underlying EBITDAaL (EBITDA after leases) was A$8,341 million, and cash earnings were A$2,876 million, or 25.5 cents per share.

Mobile users grew by over 270,000. Telstra is building the Aura Network, a long-distance fiber network, and has signed contracts with Microsoft, Google, AWS and Firmus. Vicki Brady is Chief Executive Officer. The pick is the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) that trades over the counter in the US under TLGPY, in US dollars.

Each ADR represents five ordinary shares (the F-6 registration statement of the depositary, Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, October 20, 2022). Telstra's ADRs are sponsored Level I receipts and cannot list on a US exchange (Telstra investor page). Telstra is not an SEC filer, so this profile comes from its own annual report and ASX releases.

Thesis

The market prices Telstra close to the AI estimate, as a mature telecom with large spending needs, more debt and outage risk. Cash earnings per share rose 13.8% to 25.5 cents in FY26, helped by a smaller share count. But total income fell 0.9% to A$23,405 million. Strategic investment in the Aura Network and Viasat is now about A$1.8 billion from FY23 to FY28, up from A$1.6 billion.

A major network outage on July 8, 2026 affected some Triple Zero calls, and Telstra cannot yet size the regulatory and customer costs. Telstra also shifts its funding toward debt: it finished an A$1.25 billion buy-back in June 2026 and announced another of up to A$1 billion. For the price to stay close to the AI estimate, Telstra must meet its FY27 guidance of underlying EBITDAaL of A$8.5 billion to A$8.8 billion and Cash EBIT of A$4.75 billion to A$4.95 billion. It must also grow cash earnings at a mid-single digit rate toward FY30 and turn Aura Network and digital infrastructure contracts into revenue.

The regulator's response to the outage and the half-year result on February 18, 2027 are the next tests. If guidance holds, the price can stay close to the AI estimate as cash earnings grow.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Telstra is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Telstra's own reports. Telstra is not an SEC filer.

It reports to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and publishes its reports on its investor site. The pick is the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) that trades over the counter in the US under TLGPY, in US dollars. Each ADR represents five ordinary shares (the depositary's F-6 registration statement, October 20, 2022), so the value is per ADR. Telstra reports in Australian dollars.

The estimate converts at 0.6841 US dollar per Australian dollar, the rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia for November 12, 2026, and keeps it for the coming year, which is an assumption. The method is a multiple of FY28 cash earnings per share, for the year to June 30, 2028. Cash earnings is Telstra's own measure: underlying EBITDAaL (EBITDA after leases) less business-as-usual capex, spectrum amortisation, finance costs, tax and minorities. It is after interest and tax, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment.

The FY26 annual report (August 13, 2026) gives underlying EBITDAaL of A$8,341 million, Cash EBIT of A$4,659 million, net finance costs of A$669 million, tax of A$949 million, minorities of A$165 million, cash earnings of A$2,876 million and cash EPS of 25.5 cents. It gives 11,139,136,247 shares on issue at June 30, 2026 and net debt of A$17,301 million. The market release of August 13, 2026 gives FY27 guidance of underlying EBITDAaL of A$8.5 billion to A$8.8 billion and Cash EBIT of A$4.75 billion to A$4.95 billion, a new buy-back of up to A$1 billion, and an ambition of mid-single digit growth in cash earnings. The estimate takes FY27 Cash EBIT at A$4.85 billion, the midpoint, finance costs at A$700 million, tax at 23.8% of Cash EBIT less finance costs (the FY26 rate), minorities at A$175 million and 11.0 billion average shares.

This gives cash earnings of about A$2,990 million and 27.2 cents per share. These FY27 figures, the FY28 figures and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes that earnings stall under outage costs and heavier network spending, with FY28 cash EPS of 26.5 cents, about 3% below FY27, at 15 times. It gives A$3.98 per share, A$19.88 per ADR, or US$13.60 per ADR.

The base case assumes cash earnings growth near the company's mid-single digit ambition and fewer shares, with 28.5 cents, up about 5%, at 17.5 times. It gives A$4.99 per share, A$24.94 per ADR, or US$17.06 per ADR. The high case assumes stronger infrastructure revenue from the Aura Network, with 30.5 cents, up about 12%, at 20 times. It gives A$6.10 per share, A$30.50 per ADR, or US$20.87 per ADR.

The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is US$17.15 per ADR.

Checkpoints

  1. Feb 18, 2027Pending
    FY27 half-year results: guidance on trackGrowth in underlying EBITDAaL that keeps the FY27 guidance of A$8.5 billion to A$8.8 billion on track passes; a cut to guidance fails.
  2. Aug 12, 2027Pending
    FY27 results: cash earnings per shareCash EPS of 27 cents or more for FY27 passes; less fails.
  3. 2027 · est.Pending
    July 2026 outage: regulator outcome and costsA regulator outcome and customer costs that Telstra can size and absorb inside its FY27 guidance pass; costs that force a guidance cut fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • August 13, 2026Telstra reported FY26 results. Underlying EBITDAaL rose 4.0% to A$8,341 million, cash EPS rose 13.8% to 25.5 cents, and net profit after tax rose 2.7% to A$2.4 billion. The final dividend is 10.5 cents per share, 90.5% franked, for a total of 21 cents. Telstra announced a new on-market buy-back of up to A$1 billion and gave FY27 guidance.
  • August 13, 2026Telstra raised its expected strategic investment in the Aura Network and Viasat to about A$1.8 billion from FY23 to FY28, from about A$1.6 billion, because of inflation and project factors. It expects a mid-teens IRR and a payback of about nine years on the Aura Network.
  • July 8, 2026A network outage hit some mobile calls and data services, including some Triple Zero calls. Telstra said that its own undocumented network design change and a software update that had not been applied caused it. It has received one regulatory notice, expects more, and commissioned an external expert review.
Show 2 older events
  • June 4, 2026Telstra completed its on-market buy-back of A$1.25 billion. It bought 245,892,740 shares at an average price of A$5.08 and cancelled them.
  • February 19, 2026At its half-year results, Telstra raised its FY26 on-market buy-back from up to A$1.0 billion to up to A$1.25 billion.

Risks

  • Network outages and their cost. The July 8, 2026 outage affected some Triple Zero calls. Regulatory outcomes and customer claims are uncertain and Telstra cannot reliably estimate them (annual report, events after the reporting date).
  • Spending may not earn its return. Strategic investment was A$457 million in FY26 and BAU capex was A$3,365 million, and FY27 BAU capex may reach A$3.65 billion. The Aura Network case depends on contracts that turn into revenue.
  • Debt is rising. Net debt rose 5.2% to A$17,301 million at June 30, 2026, and the buy-backs move funding toward debt. Debt servicing was 2.0 times.
  • Revenue is flat. Total income fell 0.9% in FY26. Telstra is still resetting its Fixed Enterprise business, and growth depends on mobile prices and users.
  • Currency. The ADR trades in US dollars, but Telstra earns and pays dividends in Australian dollars. A fall in the Australian dollar lowers the ADR price for the same share price in Australia.

Balance sheet

At June 30, 2026, Telstra's gross debt was A$18,404 million. It was made of borrowings of A$15,512 million and lease liabilities of A$3,091 million, less net derivative financial instruments of A$199 million.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
4.3% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
4.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $17.43)
Paid per share
$0.741 in the last 12 months (2 payments)
Current annual rate
$0.741 (the last two payments)
Latest ex-dividend date
August 27, 2026, $0.37 per share

Dividends per share by year

Telstra dividends per share by year
2016
$1.157
2017
$1.209
2018
$0.832
2019
$0.555
2020
$0.555
2021
$0.603
2022
$0.598
2023
$0.557
2024
$0.602
2025
$0.299

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 11.6% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 12.6% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Telstra

What does Telstra do?

Telstra Group Limited (Telstra) is an Australian telecommunications company. It sells mobile, fixed broadband and enterprise connectivity services, and its infrastructure business owns mobile towers, fiber and subsea cables. Its market cap is $39B at the current price of $17.43.

When does Telstra report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on February 18, 2027. It last reported results on August 13, 2026.

Is Telstra stock below its intrinsic value?

Telstra stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Telstra?

The latest update is from August 13, 2026. Telstra reported FY26 results.

What are the main risks for Telstra?

Network outages and their cost. Spending may not earn its return. Debt is rising.

How much debt and cash does Telstra have?

At June 30, 2026, Telstra's gross debt was A$18,404 million. This is as of June 30, 2026.

Does Telstra pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Telstra is $0.741 per share. That is a dividend yield of 4.3% at the current price of $17.43. The latest ex-dividend date was August 27, 2026.

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