IBM

IBM sells software, consulting and computing infrastructure to large companies and governments. Software, its largest segment, includes Red Hat hybrid cloud software, automation, data and AI products, and transaction processing software for mainframes. Consulting helps clients with strategy, technology and operations. Infrastructure includes IBM Z mainframes, distributed servers and storage, and support.

IBM bought Confluent, a data streaming company, in March 2026. Revenue was $67.5 billion in 2025 and $50.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026, when Software was 45% of revenue. IBM has paid a dividend every quarter since 1916.

IBM trades at a premium because investors pay for its shift to software and for steady free cash flow. Software grew 8% in Q3 2026, with Red Hat up 11% and Data up 19%. Free cash flow was $14.7 billion in 2025, and IBM now expects more than $1 billion more in 2026. Investors also pay for a part in AI and for its quantum computing plan, with a target of a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029.

For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Software must keep growing near 10% a year, with help from Confluent, which IBM bought for about $11.3 billion in March 2026. Consulting must return to growth, after it was flat in Q2 and Q3 2026. Free cash flow must keep growing, so that IBM can pay its dividend and lower its debt of $63.8 billion.

IBM Quantum Day on December 10, 2026 shows progress on the quantum plan, and the Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. The premium can shrink if growth slows again, as in Q2 2026, when large deals did not close on time and IBM lowered its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 4% to 5% from more than 5%.

1. Dec 10, 2026Pending

   IBM Quantum Day 2026Clear progress toward a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 passes; a delay of the 2029 target fails.
2. Jan 27, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook2026 free cash flow above $15.7 billion, software growth near 10% and a 2027 outlook for higher revenue and free cash flow pass; slower software growth or a weaker outlook fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 21, 2026IBM reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 5% to $17.1 billion. Software grew 8%, Consulting was flat and Infrastructure grew 4%, with IBM Z down 20%. Operating EPS was $2.95, up 11%. IBM kept its outlook for constant currency revenue growth of 4% to 5% in 2026 and now expects free cash flow to rise by more than $1 billion.
• September 14, 2026Anderon, an IBM subsidiary for quantum chip manufacturing, signed an award of up to $1.0 billion from the U.S. Department of Commerce under the CHIPS Act. IBM put $1.0 billion of cash into Anderon, and the Department received a minority equity interest.
• August 10, 2026IBM sold C$2.75 billion of notes: C$1.75 billion of 4.100% notes due 2030 and C$1.0 billion of 4.750% notes due 2034.

Last earnings

October 21, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 27, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 22, 2026 · ibm-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 21, 2026 · ibm-20261021
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Change to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled October 1, 2026 · ibm-20261001
• 8-KCurrent reportFiled August 14, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 23, 2026 · ibm-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 22, 2026 · ibm-20260722
• 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled July 14, 2026 · ibm-20260714
• 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled June 23, 2026 · ibm-20260622
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled May 28, 2026 · ibm-20260528
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Change to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled May 1, 2026 · ibm-20260428

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 51143)

• Software growth drives the value of IBM. In Q2 2026, large deals did not close on time and IBM lowered its revenue outlook. Automation software fell 3% in Q3 2026. If software growth slows again, earnings and cash flow growth slow.
• Consulting was flat in Q2 and Q3 2026, with a gross margin of 27.9% in the first nine months of 2026. AI tools can lower the demand for consulting work that people do.
• Debt was $63.8 billion at September 30, 2026, after the Confluent purchase. Long-term debt of $6.7 billion is due in 2027 and $6.0 billion in 2028. Higher interest rates make refinancing more costly.
• IBM plans to invest more than $10 billion over five years in quantum computing. The technology may take longer to earn revenue than IBM expects.
• IBM Z sales move in product cycles. IBM Z revenue fell 20% in Q3 2026 against a strong year earlier, and it can fall more before the next system.

IBM funds itself mainly with long-term notes in U.S. dollars, euros and other currencies. Total debt was $63.8 billion at September 30, 2026, up $2.6 billion in 2026 after the purchase of Confluent for about $11.3 billion in March 2026. Read more

Dividend yield

2.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $246.11)

Paid per share

$6.74 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$6.76 ($1.69 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

60% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

August 10, 2026, $1.69 per share

Dividends per share by year

Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 1.3% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 2.5% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.