NMRSecurities brokerage and investment banking
Nomura
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $9.69
- Analysts view
- Very bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $28B
- Shares of Mar 31, 2026
- 52-week range
- $6.88 – $10.94
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.83
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 830K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for the high earnings of Nomura in strong markets, and only a return on equity that stays in the target range through weak markets can earn this price.
- Gap
- Slow. The gap can close only through several quarters of return on equity inside the target range, including quarters when trading is weak.
Company guidance: No earnings forecast; ROE target 10% to 12% or more (2030 vision); half-year dividend ¥35 per share (, Q2 results presentation (6-K))
Price history
About
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (Nomura) is a financial services group based in Tokyo, Japan. It was founded in 1925. It has four divisions: Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) and Banking. In the six months that ended September 30, 2026, net revenue was ¥1,294.2 billion, income before income taxes was ¥359.5 billion and net income attributable to Nomura shareholders was ¥249.3 billion.
Kentaro Okuda is President and Group CEO. Nomura files Form 20-F and Form 6-K with the SEC. It reports in Japanese yen under US GAAP, and its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its American Depositary Shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars, and each ADS represents one share of common stock.
Thesis
The price of Nomura depends on whether its return on equity (ROE) stays at 10% or more when markets are weak. Its earnings move with markets, because the Wholesale division trades and underwrites for clients. In Q2 of the year ending March 2027, Wholesale income before income taxes fell 51% from the record Q1, and group ROE was 10.9%. The first half ROE of 13.3% includes gains on the sale of real estate of about ¥56.0 billion.
The balance sheet is also large: total assets were ¥67.5 trillion at September 30, 2026, which is 17.9 times equity. Nomura says that its stable revenue grew about 60% in the first half, because Wealth Management and Investment Management earn more from recurring fees. It gives no earnings forecast. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true.
Recurring revenue must keep growing, so that it covers more of the costs of Wealth Management than the 79% of Q2. ROE must stay in the target range of 10% to 12% or more in quarters when trading is weak. The capital ratios must stay well above the minimum while the balance sheet grows. The next tests are the Q3 report, expected in late January 2027, and the full-year report, expected in late April 2027.
Checkpoints
- Jan 29, 2027 · est.PendingQ3 results: Wholesale revenue and ROEROE for the quarter stays at 10% or more with no real estate gain and recurring revenue keeps rising, and this passes; a lower ROE fails.
- Apr 2027 · est.PendingFull-year results for the year ended March 2027Full-year ROE is inside or above the target range of 10% to 12% and the capital ratios stay well above the minimum, and this passes; a lower ROE fails.
- Jul 2027 · est.PendingQ1 results for the year ending March 2028ROE stays in the target range after the first full quarter without the real estate gains of this year, and this passes; a lower ROE fails.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026Nomura reported results for Q2 of the year ending March 2027. Net revenue was ¥607.5 billion, up 18% from a year before and down 12% from Q1. Income before income taxes was ¥148.0 billion, up 8% from a year before, and net income attributable to Nomura shareholders was ¥103.7 billion. ROE was 10.9%.
- October 28, 2026Nomura declared a half-year dividend of ¥35 per share for holders of record at the end of September 2026. It is payable on December 1, 2026.
- October 28, 2026Wealth Management had record net inflows of about ¥750 billion into assets that pay recurring revenue in Q2. Its recurring revenue cost coverage ratio rose to 79%. Investment Banking net revenue rose 26% from a year before.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- October 27, 2026Nomura reported its capital ratios at June 30, 2026. The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.20%, and the consolidated leverage ratio was 4.77%.
- October 14, 2026In its buyback report for September, Nomura showed that it had bought 46,861,200 shares for ¥59,999,879,300 under the authorization of January 30, 2026, which is almost the whole limit of ¥60 billion. It bought no shares in September.
- June 22, 2026Nomura filed its Form 20-F for the year ended March 31, 2026. It states 2,901,337,224 shares of common stock outstanding at March 31, 2026, of which 79,924,681 were in ADSs.
Latest news and filings
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2024Filed · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Earnings depend on markets. Trading and investment banking revenue can fall fast when markets fall or clients stop deals. In Q2, Wholesale income before income taxes fell 51% from Q1.
- The balance sheet is large. Total assets were ¥67.5 trillion and gross leverage was 17.9 times at September 30, 2026. Level 3 assets, which are hard to value, were ¥1.3 trillion. A large loss in trading or in private equity would cut capital.
- The first half profit includes gains on the sale of real estate of about ¥56.0 billion. ROE can fall back when such gains do not repeat.
- The ADS price is in US dollars, and Nomura earns in yen. A weaker yen lowers the dollar value of each ADS, even when earnings in yen are the same.
Balance sheet
At September 30, 2026, Nomura had total assets of ¥67.5 trillion, up from ¥62.6 trillion at March 31, 2026. Total Nomura shareholders' equity was ¥3,775.3 billion. Gross leverage was 17.9 times and net leverage was 13.2 times. Long-term borrowings were ¥15.6 trillion and short-term borrowings were ¥2.0 trillion. The liquidity portfolio was ¥12.7 trillion, and the liquidity coverage ratio was 182.4%. The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 12.6% (preliminary) at September 30, 2026, against 13.2% at June 30, 2026 and 12.8% at March 31, 2026. The consolidated leverage ratio was 4.68% (preliminary), and the TLAC ratio was 27.7% of risk-weighted assets (preliminary). Nomura repurchased shares worth almost ¥60 billion under its authorization of January 30, 2026.
Dividends
The dividend data after March 31, 2025 is missing.
- Latest ex-dividend date
- March 31, 2025, $0.238 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.00 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.00 | |
| 2018 | $0.00 | |
| 2019 | $0.00 | |
| 2020 | $0.046 | |
| 2021 | $0.00 | |
| 2022 | $0.00 | |
| 2023 | $0.00 | |
| 2024 | $0.248 | |
| 2025 | $0.238 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 38.9% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Nomura
What does Nomura do?
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (Nomura) is a financial services group based in Tokyo, Japan. It was founded in 1925. Its market cap is $28B at the current price of $9.69.
When does Nomura report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Nomura may report on January 29, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Nomura stock below its intrinsic value?
Nomura stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Nomura?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Nomura reported results for Q2 of the year ending March 2027.
What are the main risks for Nomura?
Earnings depend on markets. The balance sheet is large. The first half profit includes gains on the sale of real estate of about ¥56.0 billion.
How much debt and cash does Nomura have?
At September 30, 2026, Nomura had total assets of ¥67.5 trillion, up from ¥62.6 trillion at March 31, 2026. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does Nomura pay a dividend?
The dividend data for Nomura after March 31, 2025 is missing.
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