Steel Dynamics

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (Steel Dynamics) is a US steel producer and metals recycler, based in Fort Wayne, Indiana. It has four segments: steel operations, metals recycling, steel fabrication and aluminum. Its mills use scrap steel as the main input. In Q3 2026, steel shipments were a record 3.8 million tons, and net sales were $6.5 billion.

It is also building an aluminum flat-rolled products business, which is still in start-up. Mark Millett is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The board named Theresa Wagler, now Chief Financial Officer, as President and Chief Executive Officer from January 1, 2027, and Millett will become Executive Chairman. The shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars.

The market prices Steel Dynamics above the AI estimate, because investors expect high US steel prices to last and the aluminum business to start to earn money. In Q3 2026, net income was $756 million, or $5.26 per diluted share, against $3.69 in Q2. The average steel selling price rose $102 to $1,400 per ton, while scrap cost fell $8 to $404 per ton. The company says that imports are well below past levels and that customer inventories are low.

Steel earnings swing with prices, so the price is earned only if Q3 is not a peak. For the price to be earned, four things must be true. Spreads between steel prices and scrap cost must stay wide, as the company expects through 2027. Aluminum must move from the Q3 2026 operating loss of $26 million to profit as the second CASH line starts in early 2027.

Fabrication orders, which are 50% higher than a year ago, must turn into earnings. The new Chief Executive Officer must keep the capital plan, including buybacks under a new $3.0 billion authorization. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in January 2027 and the aluminum ramp in 2027. If steel prices fall or the aluminum losses last, the price can fall toward the AI estimate.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Jan 26, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results: steel spreads and aluminumSteel shipments and prices stay near Q3 2026 levels and the aluminum loss gets smaller again, and this passes; lower prices or a bigger aluminum loss fail.
2. Apr 2027 · est.Pending

   Q1 2027 results: second CASH lineThe second CASH line runs in Q1 2027 and aluminum earns a positive operating income, and this passes; another delay fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 9, 2026Steel Dynamics added a $3.0 billion share repurchase authorization, on top of $216 million left on its earlier program at September 30, 2026. It also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share, payable on or about January 8, 2027.
• October 23, 2026In its Q3 10-Q, Steel Dynamics said that its debt of $4.2 billion was unchanged from December 31, 2025, and that cash was $928.6 million. It had 142,217,487 shares outstanding at October 21, 2026.
• October 19, 2026Steel Dynamics reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $6.5 billion, operating income was $1.0 billion, net income was $756 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion. Cash flow from operations was $846 million. The company bought back $276 million of shares.

Last earnings

October 20, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 26, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 8-KOther company newsFiled November 10, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 23, 2026 · stld-20260930x10q
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 20, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KOther company newsFiled October 19, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled September 18, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 14, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled August 4, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 28, 2026 · stld-20260630x10q
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 21, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled June 18, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1022671)

• Steel prices are cyclical. Steel operations earned $2.3 billion of operating income in nine months of 2026, and Q3 may be a high point. If imports return or demand falls, profit can fall fast.
• The aluminum start-up has cost much and is not yet profitable. Output in Q3 2026 was less than expected because of yield losses, and the company still has capital to spend on the second CASH line and a slab center.
• New domestic steel and aluminum capacity may enter the market in the coming years, as the company says. More supply can lower prices and spreads.
• Trade rules can change. The company says that recent trade actions lowered imports of coated flat-rolled steel. A change in these rules would change prices.
• A new Chief Executive Officer takes over on January 1, 2027, together with several new senior leaders in operations. A mistake in capital plans or operations would cost money.

At September 30, 2026, Steel Dynamics had cash of $928.6 million and debt of $4,203.9 million, of which $20.9 million falls due within 12 months. Total debt of $4.2 billion was unchanged from December 31, 2025. Read more

Yield at the current rate

0.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $238.99)

Paid per share

$2.09 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$2.12 ($0.53 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

25% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 30, 2026, $0.53 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 14.9% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 13.7% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.