ODFLLess-than-truckload freight
Old Dominion Freight Line
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $170.50
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Pricey
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 3 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $35B
- Shares of Oct 30, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 0.7%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 0.7%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.6
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $5.57
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $126.01 – $252.03
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.14
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.9M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts that freight volume recovers while costs for fuel and benefits rise, and steady growth in tons per day with rising yield through 2027 can lift its value.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 and the monthly updates show whether shipment volume recovers while yield keeps rising.
Company guidance: 2026 capital expenditures of about $380 million, of which about $180 million for service centers (, Q3 2026 report (10-Q))
Price history
About
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (Old Dominion) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers. It is based in Thomasville, North Carolina. It moves freight that is too large for a parcel service and too small for a full truckload.
It does this through one network of service centers, and it has no labor union. Its offers include regional, inter-regional and national LTL services, and expedited transport. In Q3 2026, it reported 99% on-time service and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%.
Revenue was $1,590.7 million in Q3 2026 and $4,479.4 million for nine months. Marty Freeman is President and Chief Executive Officer. The shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars.
Thesis
The price of Old Dominion depends on whether yield gains can continue while shipment volumes recover. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 13.1% to $1,590.7 million, but LTL shipments per day fell 2.0% and LTL tons per day fell 0.1%. Revenue per hundredweight rose 13.3%, and 5.1% without fuel surcharges. The operating ratio, which is operating costs over revenue, improved by 280 basis points to 71.5%, and diluted EPS rose 28.9% to $1.65.
Volume is now turning: tons per day rose 2.1% in October 2026, and the company says that demand improved in the quarter. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Volume must keep recovering from the low of 2026, so that the network is used more. Yield must keep rising without a loss of service quality.
Costs for employee benefits and fuel must not rise faster than revenue. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 and the monthly operating updates in between.
Checkpoints
- Feb 3, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results: operating ratio and volumeLTL tons per day rise from a year earlier and the operating ratio improves from the Q4 2025 level, and this passes; falling tons per day with a worse operating ratio fail.
- May 2027 · est.PendingQ1 2027 results: yield without fuelLTL revenue per hundredweight without fuel surcharges keeps rising at about the rate of Q3 2026, and this passes; a clear slowdown fails.
Recent events
- November 4, 2026In its Q3 2026 10-Q, Old Dominion gave its October 2026 update. Revenue per day rose 22.5% from October 2025. LTL revenue per hundredweight rose 19.9%, and 6.6% without fuel surcharges. LTL tons per day rose 2.1%, and LTL shipments per day fell 1.2%.
- October 28, 2026Old Dominion reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $1,590.7 million, up 13.1%. Operating income was $452.6 million, and the operating ratio was 71.5%, against 74.3% a year earlier. Diluted EPS was $1.65, against $1.28. LTL revenue per hundredweight rose 13.3%, and LTL tons per day fell 0.1%.
- October 22, 2026Old Dominion declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share, payable on December 16, 2026. This is 3.6% more than the dividend paid in December 2025.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- September 22, 2026Old Dominion elected Worthing F. Jackman, a former Chief Executive Officer of Waste Connections, to its board. John D. Kasarda retired from the board on the same day.
- September 3, 2026Old Dominion gave its August 2026 update. Revenue per day rose 12.4%, and LTL tons per day fell 0.9%. LTL revenue per hundredweight without fuel surcharges rose 4.8% for the quarter to date.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · odfl-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · odfl-20261022
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · odfl-20260922
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · odfl-20260903
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · odfl-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · odfl-20260723
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · odfl-20260603
- 8-KShareholder vote results and Other company newsFiled · odfl-20260520
Risks
- Volumes depend on the freight economy. LTL tons per day fell 4.0% in the first nine months of 2026. A weak economy or new tariffs can cut shipments, and fixed costs for the network do not fall with volume.
- Fuel costs and surcharges move revenue and costs. The average cost of diesel per gallon rose 68.4% in Q3 2026, and the company does not hedge diesel. Fuel surcharges lifted revenue per hundredweight by 13.3%, against 5.1% without them.
- Employee benefit costs are rising. They were 42.8% of salaries and wages in Q3 2026, against 39.7% a year earlier, because of higher health claim costs and retirement plan costs that follow net income.
- Growth needs land and service centers. The company plans about $380 million of capital spending for 2026, of which about $180 million is for service centers, and suitable real estate can be scarce.
- Union organizing or new labor rules could raise costs. The company runs a union-free network.
- Strong competition in LTL can limit price increases if industry volume stays weak.
Balance sheet
At September 30, 2026, Old Dominion had cash and cash equivalents of $466.2 million, up from $120.1 million at December 31, 2025. Total debt was $20.0 million, which is the Series B senior notes at 3.10% that are due on May 4, 2027, down from $40.0 million at December 31, 2025. Nothing was drawn on its $400.0 million credit agreement, which matures in March 2028. Cash from operations was $1,115.8 million for nine months, and capital spending was $206.7 million. In the same period, the company used $400.6 million for share buybacks and paid $180.7 million in dividends. It had $1.15 billion left under its buyback authority.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 0.7% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 0.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $170.50)
- Paid per share
- $1.15 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $1.16 ($0.29 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 23% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 2, 2026, $0.29 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.00 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.1333 | |
| 2018 | $0.1733 | |
| 2019 | $0.2267 | |
| 2020 | $0.3017 | |
| 2021 | $0.40 | |
| 2022 | $0.60 | |
| 2023 | $0.80 | |
| 2024 | $1.04 | |
| 2025 | $1.12 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 30.0% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Old Dominion Freight Line
What does Old Dominion Freight Line do?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (Old Dominion) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers. It is based in Thomasville, North Carolina. Its market cap is $35B at the current price of $170.50.
When does Old Dominion Freight Line report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Old Dominion Freight Line may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Old Dominion Freight Line stock below its intrinsic value?
Old Dominion Freight Line stock is pricey. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Old Dominion Freight Line?
The latest update is from November 4, 2026. In its Q3 2026 10-Q, Old Dominion gave its October 2026 update.
What are the main risks for Old Dominion Freight Line?
Volumes depend on the freight economy. Fuel costs and surcharges move revenue and costs. Employee benefit costs are rising.
How much debt and cash does Old Dominion Freight Line have?
At September 30, 2026, Old Dominion had cash and cash equivalents of $466.2 million, up from $120.1 million at December 31, 2025. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does Old Dominion Freight Line pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Old Dominion Freight Line is $1.16 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.7% at the current price of $170.50. In the last 12 months, it paid $1.15 per share (0.7%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 2, 2026.
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