NFLXStreaming & entertainment
Netflix
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By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $61.99
- Analysts view
- Analysts Bullish
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Top pick
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 19 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $255B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.9
- Price of Oct 29, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $3.46
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $61.40 – $116.73
- To Oct 29, 2026
- Beta
- 1.61
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Sep 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 35M
- 3 months, to Oct 29, 2026
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Netflix for slower revenue growth, flat engagement and weaker ad sales, and steady growth near ten percent with a rising margin and large buybacks can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report and 2027 forecast in January 2027 and the ad plan launches in March 2027 test whether growth and margins hold.
Company guidance: Revenue of $51.1 billion, operating margin of 31.5% and free cash flow of about $12.0 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 letter to shareholders (8-K Ex. 99.1))
About
Netflix runs a subscription streaming service with series, films, games and live events. Members pay a monthly fee, and an ad-supported plan also earns advertising revenue. It makes its own series and films in many countries and licenses titles from other studios. Revenue was $45.2 billion in 2025, and the company expects $51.1 billion in 2026.
Its audience is close to one billion people. In November 2025, Netflix split its stock ten for one. The company is based in Los Gatos, California.
Thesis
The market prices Netflix for slower growth. Revenue growth fell from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to 11.8% in Q3 2026, and the company expects 11.5% in Q4 2026. Netflix now expects 2026 advertising revenue of about $2.7 billion, below its earlier plan of about $3 billion. View hours grew only about 2% in the first half of 2026, and the company says that investors are concerned about this slow growth.
For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing by about 10% or more as prices, members and ads grow. The operating margin must keep rising from the 31.5% expected for 2026. Free cash flow must keep funding large share buybacks while debt stays near its present level.
The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 forecast, expected in January 2027, give the next test. The launch of the ad plan in twelve more countries in March 2027 tests ad growth. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is that engagement stays flat, which can limit future price increases.
Checkpoints
- Jan 19, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 forecastQ4 revenue of about $13.4 billion and a 2027 forecast with revenue growth of about 10% or more and a higher operating margin pass; a 2027 forecast with slower growth or a flat margin fails.
- Mar 2027PendingAd plan launch in twelve more countriesA launch on time in nine EMEA countries, Colombia, Peru and New Zealand passes; a delay of these launches fails.
Recent events
- October 20, 2026Netflix reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 12% to $12.9 billion, and the operating margin rose to 34.6% from 28.2%. Diluted EPS was $0.87, up from $0.59. The company now expects 2026 revenue of $51.1 billion, an operating margin of 31.5% and free cash flow of about $12.0 billion. It lowered its 2026 ad revenue estimate to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion. It bought back $4.8 billion of stock in the quarter and said that it made headcount reductions.
- July 22, 2026Netflix sold $1 billion of 5.250% senior notes due 2036. It will use the money to repay its 4.375% notes due 2026.
- July 16, 2026Netflix reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 13% to $12.6 billion, and the operating margin was 33.4%. It narrowed its 2026 revenue forecast to $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion and kept its operating margin target of 31.5%. It bought back $4.7 billion of stock in the quarter.
Show 5 older eventsHide older events
- April 22, 2026The Netflix board authorized the repurchase of an additional $25 billion of common stock.
- April 16, 2026Netflix reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 16%, and operating income rose 18%. Net income was $5.28 billion, including the $2.8 billion termination fee from the Warner Bros. deal. Co-founder Reed Hastings said that he would leave the board at the June 2026 annual meeting.
- February 27, 2026Warner Bros. Discovery ended its merger agreement with Netflix to accept a higher offer from Paramount Skydance. Netflix did not raise its offer and received a termination fee of $2.8 billion. Its bridge loan commitments for the deal ended.
- January 20, 2026Netflix reported 2025 results. Revenue rose 16% to $45.2 billion, and the operating margin was 29.5%. It forecast 2026 revenue of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion. On January 19, 2026, it changed its offer for the Warner Bros. studios and streaming business to all cash, at $27.75 per Warner Bros. Discovery share.
- December 4, 2025Netflix agreed to buy the studios and streaming business of Warner Bros. Discovery after the separation of its cable networks, and it obtained a $59 billion bridge loan commitment.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 20, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 19, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · nflx-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · nflx-20261020
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · nflx-20260726
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · nflx-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · nflx-20260716
- 8-KShareholder vote results and Other company newsFiled · nflx-20260604
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · nflx-20260422
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · nflx-20260331
- 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · nflx-20260410
Risks
- Many services compete for viewing time. View hours grew only about 2% in the first half of 2026. If engagement stays flat, Netflix can find it harder to raise prices and keep members.
- The ad business grows more slowly than planned. Netflix lowered its 2026 ad revenue estimate to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion because some ad products came later than expected.
- Content costs are large and grow each year. Live sports and big series cost more, and a weak slate can raise churn.
- Netflix tried to buy a large studio in 2026. A new large purchase can add debt and costs and take management time.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $8.2B
- Debt
- $15.3B
- Net debt
- $7.1B
- Credit line
- $3.0B
- undrawn, to April 2029
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $7.1B
Netflix has investment-grade debt and large cash flow. Gross debt was $15.3 billion and cash and cash equivalents were $8.2 billion at September 30, 2026. Gross debt rose by about $1 billion in Q3 because the company sold $1 billion of 5.250% notes due 2036 in July 2026 to repay $1 billion of notes due in Q4 2026. The $3 billion revolving credit facility was not drawn and runs to April 12, 2029. Netflix expects free cash flow of about $12.0 billion in 2026. It bought back $4.8 billion of stock in Q3 2026 and had $22.3 billion of repurchase authorization left. There were 4,106.3 million shares outstanding at September 30, 2026.
Dividends
Netflix does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on October 29, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Netflix
What does Netflix do?
Netflix runs a subscription streaming service with series, films, games and live events. Members pay a monthly fee, and an ad-supported plan also earns advertising revenue. Its market cap is $255B at the current price of $61.99.
When does Netflix report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Netflix may report on January 19, 2027. It last reported results on October 20, 2026.
Is Netflix stock below its intrinsic value?
Netflix stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Netflix?
The latest update is from October 20, 2026. Netflix reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Netflix?
Many services compete for viewing time. The ad business grows more slowly than planned. Content costs are large and grow each year.
How much debt and cash does Netflix have?
At September 30, 2026, Netflix had $15.3B of debt and $8.2B of cash.
Does Netflix pay a dividend?
No. Netflix does not pay a dividend.
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