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PKGContainerboard and corrugated packaging

Packaging Corporation of America

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$250.58
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Far above intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 21 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$22B
Shares of Oct 30, 2026
Yield at current rate
2.4%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 13, 2026
Dividend yield
2.2%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 13, 2026
P/E (trailing)
30.9
Price of Nov 13, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$8.11
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$191.50 – $262.59
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.78
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
645K
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors pay a premium for the price increases and Greif mill gains of Packaging Corporation of America, and only prices that outrun rising freight and fiber costs through 2027 can earn this price.
Gap
Can close. The premium depends on 2027 earnings: the Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, and the first 2027 quarters show whether price increases outrun costs.

Company guidance: Q4 2026 earnings of $2.81 per share, excluding special items (, Q3 2026 results release (8-K))

Price history

About

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is based in Lake Forest, Illinois. It is the third largest producer of containerboard in North America and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet paper. It runs ten mills and 90 corrugated products plants and related facilities. It has two segments: Packaging, which makes containerboard and corrugated boxes and displays, and Paper.

Net sales were $2,601.7 million in Q3 2026 and $7,459.3 million for nine months. PCA bought the containerboard business of Greif on September 2, 2025 for $1.8 billion in cash. The common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. PCA files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

Thesis

The price of PCA reflects a strong earnings run and the gains that it expects from higher containerboard prices and the Greif mills, and it depends on whether price rises outrun costs. Q3 2026 earnings excluding special items were $3.04 per share against $2.73 a year before, and the acquired Greif operations added $0.24 of the rise. In the legacy business, price and mix added $0.79 per share and higher costs took back $0.91. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true.

The announced containerboard and corrugated price increases must hold. Freight, recycled fiber, chemical and energy costs must stop rising faster than prices. The Greif mills must keep improving. The antitrust class action and the Justice Department subpoena must not lead to large costs.

The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, with its first 2027 guidance, is the next test. If price rises fail or costs keep rising, the price can fall.

Checkpoints

  1. Jan 21, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlookEarnings excluding special items are at or above the guided $2.81 per share and the 2027 outlook shows prices holding, and this passes; earnings below $2.81 or weaker prices fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 21, 2026PCA reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $262 million, or $2.93 per share, and $3.04 per share excluding special items. Corrugated products shipments rose 10.6%, and fell 0.5% in the legacy business. PCA expects Q4 earnings of $2.81 per share excluding special items, with mill maintenance outage costs that are significantly higher.
  • September 30, 2026In late September 2026, PCA received a grand jury subpoena from the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice for documents about its business. It said that it is cooperating fully.
  • September 4, 2026The court in the containerboard antitrust class action denied the joint motion to dismiss that PCA and the other defendants filed. PCA says that the claims have no merit and that it will defend the case. It cannot estimate a range of possible losses. PCA gave this news in its Q3 2026 10-Q, filed on November 5, 2026.
Show 2 older events
  • September 2, 2026The board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share, paid on October 15, 2026. PCA had raised its annual dividend rate from $5.00 to $6.00 per share in Q2 2026.
  • December 3, 2025PCA announced the permanent shutdown of the No. 2 paper machine and the kraft pulping facilities at its Wallula, Washington mill. The work finished in Q1 2026 and cost about $188.0 million before tax.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 22, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 21, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 75677)

Risks

  • Costs are rising. Higher costs, mainly labor, freight, corporate expense and fiber, took back $0.91 per share of the gains in the legacy business in Q3 2026. PCA expects freight, fiber, chemical and energy costs to rise further in Q4.
  • Antitrust cases are open. A purported class action in the Northern District of Illinois says that containerboard producers conspired to raise prices and seeks treble damages. On September 4, 2026, the court denied the defendants' motion to dismiss, so the case continues. PCA also got a Justice Department grand jury subpoena in late September 2026. PCA cannot estimate a loss.
  • Demand is mixed. Legacy corrugated shipments were 0.5% lower in Q3 2026, with weakness in agricultural end markets, and more e-commerce volume weakens the mix.
  • Debt grew with the Greif purchase. Long-term debt was $3,969.7 million at September 30, 2026, and net interest expense was $98.3 million for nine months against $45.2 million.
  • Mill operations affect output. Maintenance outages at three mills lower Q4 production, and PCA expects capital spending of $865 million to $890 million in 2026.

Balance sheet

Cash
$762M
Debt
$4.0B
Net debt
$3.2B
Credit line
$573M
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$762M
Debt$4.0B

debt covered by cashnet debt $3.2B

At September 30, 2026, PCA had long-term debt of $3,969.7 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $534.6 million and marketable debt securities and other were $227.2 million, which is $761.8 million in all.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
2.4% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
2.2% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $250.58)
Paid per share
$5.50 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$6.00 ($1.50 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
58% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
September 15, 2026, $1.50 per share

Dividends per share by year

Packaging Corporation of America dividends per share by year
2016
$2.36
2017
$2.52
2018
$3.00
2019
$3.16
2020
$3.37
2021
$4.00
2022
$4.75
2023
$5.00
2024
$5.00
2025
$5.00

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 8.2% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 8.6% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 12, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Packaging Corporation of America

What does Packaging Corporation of America do?

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is based in Lake Forest, Illinois. It is the third largest producer of containerboard in North America and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet paper. Its market cap is $22B at the current price of $250.58.

When does Packaging Corporation of America report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Packaging Corporation of America may report on January 21, 2027. It last reported results on October 21, 2026.

Is Packaging Corporation of America stock below its intrinsic value?

Packaging Corporation of America stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Packaging Corporation of America?

The latest update is from October 21, 2026. PCA reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Packaging Corporation of America?

Costs are rising. Antitrust cases are open. Demand is mixed.

How much debt and cash does Packaging Corporation of America have?

At September 30, 2026, Packaging Corporation of America had $4.0B of debt and $762M of cash.

Does Packaging Corporation of America pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Packaging Corporation of America is $6.00 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.4% at the current price of $250.58. In the last 12 months, it paid $5.50 per share (2.2%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 15, 2026.

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